(*) FANALYTICS: The 2014 Tipping Point
Mar 27 2014
Back in 2000, Malcolm Gladwell wrote a book called "The Tipping Point." He described how a series of small events can build to a critical mass and reach a "tipping point" where great change can occur. He gave examples of societal changes, like fashion trends and drops in crime rate, that could be attributed to seemingly unrelated events.
In baseball, we have experienced tipping points as well. Bullpen usage 30 years ago was much different than it is today; we never outwardly recognized the small changes that have led to closers becoming specious, 9th-inning-only specialists. More significant has been the impact of performance enhancing drugs in the 1990s and early 2000s. We watched the amazing achievements of individual players in awe, but didn't piece together what was going on until offensive records started falling unabated.
I believe we may be reaching another tipping point now. Somewhat in response to the pushback on PED use, the environment that the game is being played in now is changing. We have been observing a series of individual events and trends over the past few years, but nobody seems to be trying to put the pieces together to see where it all might lead. I don't know if we are on the brink of great change, but I would not be the least bit surprised to see something big happen, and perhaps as early as this year.
Here is what we all know has been going on:
Batting averages have been in a precipitous decline. Since 2007, league-wide BAs have dropped 15 points. In part, this has been driven by the improvement in defensive metrics and measurement which has allowed teams to better position fielders to reach batted balls. In at least equal part, a huge breed of new, young pitchers has emerged, performing at elite levels upon call-up and dominating opposing batters (and there are more coming). These pitchers and defenses are also becoming more adept at controlling the running game, and as such, stolen bases were way down last year.
These are not isolated, stagnant events. They are all inter-related and trending. We have no reason to believe any of these will cease or soften, so as long as these trends continue we need to pay attention to where they might lead.
What might our game look like if we reach a tipping point?
As defensive strategizing continues to shape offensive performance and pitching continues to dominate, batting averages could continue to decline. Perhaps no more than a handful of players will manage to hit over .300. Scoring will continue to decrease and the value of in-game tactics will soar.
For fantasy purposes, what type of player will survive in this scenario? Pure power hitters. The home run is the only event that evades all this defensive maneuvering. Big swing/low contact bats will retain a great deal of value because all batting averages will be pushed downward. The home run is what will separate them from the pack.
Perhaps the only thing that might prevent us from seeing the full impact this year, or at least soften the change, is the rash of young pitchers heading out for their first and second Tommy John surgeries. This might be in response to reduced PED use (or perhaps increased use!). Without this variable, these trends might reach critical mass even faster.
How should fantasy leaguers react?
First, buy big power. Fill as many roster spots as possible with power bats, regardless of any other deficiency. Pay fully for those with solid contact skills but any hitter who can go yard regularly has more value than ever before.
More and more, solid skilled pitchers will become almost interchangeable commodities. Behind Clayton Kershaw, there are dozens of arms that are all serviceable; potentially any one of them could put up solid across-the-board stats. During the recently-completed First Pitch Forum tour, we conducted an exercise where we reset the baseline for each player by combining 2012 and 2013 performances and filtering out the most outlying month from each season. On the pitching side, the result was a mass compression of the rankings; for instance, the 3rd and 10th ranked pitchers were separated in projected value by less than $5, and every pitcher had a baseline ERA between 3.30 and 3.60.
Can you really tell the difference between Madison Bumgarner and David Price? Danny Salazar and Michael Wacha? Erasmo Ramírez and Marco Estrada? Or even Price and Wacha and Estrada? Recent research has shown that our draft day pitching purchases account for less than 60% of the stats our teams will accumulate during the season—more than 40% of those stats are acquired in-season—so why should we invest heavily in arms at the draft table?
Given that current projection models are not accounting for all these changes, projected rankings and dollar values need to be manually adjusted. Of course, you need to buy into all this first. I'm not trying to persuade you beyond all reasonable doubt. I'm just trying to open your eyes to some possibilities.
I decided to buy into the speculation at Tout Wars last weekend.
Tout Wars' decision to swap out BA for OBP could not have come at a better time. Several top analysts have managed to win top-level competitions by punting batting average; we needed a way to temper that effect and this change is perfect.
And in fact, a hit list of the best hitters to target might be one that looks solely at high contact rate, high LD/FB rates, high PX level and high walk rate. Something like this: There are only eight players that fully meet all of those criteria:
PLAYER MM Code bb% ct% PX L% F% ================= ======== === === === === === Wright,David 4335 DBC 12 81 125 21 38 Encarnacion,Edwin 4255 BAC 13 86 148 20 45 Abreu,Jose 4245 ADF 12 80 145 22 43 Bautista,Jose 4235 DBD 15 81 143 15 46 McCann,Brian 4135 BBC 11 82 132 20 43 Ortiz,David 4055 DBC 13 82 156 22 40 Utley,Chase 3335 FCA 10 85 106 19 41 Carpenter,Matt 3235 ABD 11 81 106 26 35
These are all great picks for an OBP league. Mark Teixeira is also on this list if he's healthy. If we remove the walk rate component, however, we can cast a slightly wider net.
PLAYER MM Code ct% PX L% F% ================= ======== === === === === Beltran,Carlos 4245 CAB 82 138 22 40 Quentin,Carlos 4033 FCA 82 132 20 44 Lucroy,Jonathan 3335 BBF 85 103 22 38 Lowrie,Jed 3325 FBB 83 120 20 48 Hill,Aaron 3245 DBF 86 115 21 41 Beltre,Adrian 3245 BAB 87 117 21 40 Gonzalez,Adrian 3235 AAC 83 113 23 37 Chisenhall,Lonnie 3233 BDA 80 118 21 41 Cabrera,Asdrubal 3225 BAB 80 105 22 38 Seager,Kyle 3225 AAA 81 112 22 44 Ramirez,Aramis 3135 CBB 84 114 20 41 Walker,Neil 3135 BBA 81 107 23 38 Ross,Cody 3123 DCB 80 115 20 41 Moustakas,Mike 3015 ABA 81 108 18 47
Essentially, these are the most likely survivors of an environment where we reach the tipping point of pitching and defensive dominance.
The above names were prime targets for me, and I managed to buy three of them. The rest of my roster was focused on accumulating power bats, avoiding OBP sinkholes and a LIMA-style stockpiling of high-skilled arms regardless of role.
POS BATTER $$ Prj MAYBERRY === ================ === === ======== CA Avila,A 12 12 3215 BCD Power, solid OBP CA Hanigan,R 2 2 0013 CBC "First, do no harm" 1B Encarnacion,E 33 38 4255 BAC On the list and at a discount 3B Chisenhall,L 3 4 3223 BDA On the list CI Guzman,J 3 9 4233 ADA Power, qualifies at 1b/of 2B Johnson,K 15 13 3215 ABA Qualifies at 2b/3b/of SS Reyes,J 26 31 2545 FAC Unplanned but bidding stalled MI Punto,N 2 2 1213 DFB Qualifies at 2b/3b OF Jones,A 30 27 4345 AAA 1 year removed from .334 OBP OF Beltran,C 25 29 4245 CAB On the list and undervalued OF Jackson,A 20 25 3525 BAD Across-the-board production OF Springer,G 9 8 4303 AFF Always need a wild card UT Saunders,M 8 11 4315 ACC Power, some speed SW Hoes,LJ 3 10 1323 ACB High OBP, SB upside Res Maxwell,J 4 4403 DDB Power, replaces Springer POS PITCHER $$ Prj MAYBERRY === ================ === === ======== SP Salazar,D 17 23 5503 ADA High skill, huge discount SP Smyly,D 15 17 4403 BDD High skill SP Hughes,P 4 -1 2303 DBA A low cost speculation SP Morrow,B 2 3 3403 FBB History of skills upside SP Ramirez,E 3 0 3201 DDC Hot '13 arm, now healthy SP Hutchison,D 3 2 3401 FFF Ditto RP Allen,C 3 5 4510 ADA Buy skills, not roles RP Farquhar,D 4 2 5510 ADC Ditto RP Jones,N 14 11 5531 ADB Role does have some value Res Phelps,D -5 2301 DCC Pitching backup Res Workman,B -3 3301 AFF Another mid-season wild-card Res Bell,H 3 4500 ABB Proven closer skills
In retrospect, I should have drafted more power. The unplanned José Reyes purchase threw me off course a little, though he is clearly a good commodity to own. Maxwell will initially slot into Springer's slot, and when Springer is promoted, the odd man out may end up being the speedy Hoes. We have to maximize the power.
Perhaps the best thing about this team is that nobody has written about it. No analyst has tabbed me as a team to beat. Heck, nobody here even thought to start a forum thread to analyze my roster. Given that our pre-season expectations are typically far off from reality, my sub-radar effort has to be very good news.
Onward...
RON'S HITS & ERRORS: For those of you who have not heard, I am running one-month fantasy leagues at ShandlerPark.com. These are salary cap games using many of the rules that I have been writing about here over the years (it's a modified 4x4 game). You get $300 of faux-cash to purchase 32 players (23 actives, 9 reserves). During the month, intra-roster moves can be made twice-weekly. We are running all 15-team mixed leagues with prizes to the top 7. You can play the Upper Deck game for free in April by using the discount code "1404free." Deadline is this Sunday at 9pm ET. Join us!
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