FANALYTICS: A critical analysis of the first-round/$30 player pool, a redux
Feb 27 2015
The facts are the facts: our success rate for projecting which 15 players will earn the most roto-value in any given season is about 35%. That's terrible.
Lately, I've been hearing a growing din of apathy. So what? Who cares? Nobody expects players to finish exactly where we pick them anyway. Still, Internet discussion became contentious when I chose José Abreu over Paul Goldschmidt as the 3rd overall pick at the FSTA Experts draft, and when Todd Zola selected Anthony Rizzo at #7. Does it matter?
It does matter, at least a little. Yes, you can overcome a bad first round/$30 pick, but it just makes those six months more challenging. Brent Hershey and I drafted Prince Fielder with our 2nd round pick in the FSTA league last year and still...
Almost!
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