FANALYTICS: My Personal First Round
Feb 24 2012
It bears repeating... Last year's performances tend to grossly inflate our expectations for this coming year. And it is doing us a huge disservice.
From a psychological perspective, it's tough to get past this. Last year is a natural point of reference. It is recent. It's still the most accessible performance data in our heads. However, we would never project a player's stats from last season alone. Yet that is exactly what it seems like we're doing.
Take a look at any set of player rankings; look at any Average Draft Position (ADP) or Average Auction Value (AAV) report. Justin Verlander had a great year; now he's a first rounder, cracking the $30 threshold. Jacoby Ellsbury put on an unexplained power display, lifting him into the...
Almost!
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