(*) FANALYTICS: Patience, Bah
Apr 13 2013
This is the toughest time of the season to be a fantasy leaguer. The general advice is to "exercise excruciating patience" which is darn near impossible when you see your frontline pitchers scuffling with double-digits ERAs.
In this week's USA Today chat, I wrote: "There is nearly nothing that has occurred in the past 10 days that would change any pre-season expectations. That goes for John Buck and Justin Upton. That goes for Cole Hamels and Edwin Encarnación. There are a few isolated cases where we've had an inkling for awhile that something might be different—so what we're seeing now could be real—but the Roy Halladays and Mike Napolis are the exception rather than the rule.
Giancarlo Stanton may be an exception as well. While he is arguably the strongest power hitter in the majors, his pre-draft rankings were slightly lower than they should have been due to the fear that his surrounding cast could suppress his numbers. Would pitchers give him anything to hit with Placido Polanco and Gregg Dobbs behind him in the order? So far that seems to be a valid concern, though of course it's early. And Stanton did not hit his first home run until the end of April last year, so there's that. Statheads are not big believers in lineup protection, but in severe cases like this, you have to take at least a little notice.
Still, for the questions about whether the early surgers and strugglers are for real, the general rule of thumb is: If you had asked the same question on Opening Day, what would your answer have been? Go with that. I always go back to C.C. Sabathia's start in 2008. He was 0-3 with a 13.50 ERA after four starts, then went 17-7 with a 1.88 ERA the rest of the way.
Bullpens are another story. Less than two weeks into the season and four closers have already lost their jobs, at least temporarily. Yes, Jason Motte got hurt, but that pen is no easier to call than any other. Add in Milwaukee, Detroit and the Chicago Cubs, and one would think there are a bunch of new readily-available saves sources in fantasy free agent pools.
Not so fast. Who covers for Motte in St. Louis? Boggs? Rosenthal? Mujica? Salas? Now that Fujikawa is on the DL in Chicago, there are no other viable options. But will the soft-skilled Jim Henderson really take over for John Axford in Milwaukee? If pressed, a strong case could be make for Axford reclaiming the role at some point. And it's anyone's guess in Detroit. The most realistic speculation might actually be Jose Valverde.
My rule of thumb here is to just stay away from those pens that are too tough to call. Speculate on the best skilled arms if you have room to stash them away and can easily churn. Otherwise, just focus on those teams with better options.
Finally, in perhaps the biggest news of the week, Mike Trout stole his first base of the season after eight games. I'm not trying to be flip—well, okay, maybe a little bit—but it's interesting to note one fact. Trout recorded either a home run or a stolen base every single week last year—and he failed to post at least one of both in a single week only twice. He went through the first week of 2013 with nothing, his counting stats amounting to four runs and one RBI.
Now, of course it's a small sample size. Maybe we should be concerned about the 10 strikeouts in 36 ABs, maybe not. But you can't tell me that Trout owners aren't hanging on his every boxscore right now.
The reason I spent so much time trying to discount Trout's 2012 performance was that it was other-worldly. With numbers that high, it's not about regression, it's about gravity. Frankly, for me, he was about the easiest player to project. You might consider him low-hanging... fish, I suppose.
Of course, I am not going to gloat after eight games, but Trout's early numbers are just a reminder that every season begins as a blank slate. We'll see what the fates have in store for the next 25 weeks.
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