(*) FANALYTICS: Still not drafting Mike Trout...
Mar 16 2013
I've spent the past week fighting off accusations of biased analysis and hyperbole. Chris Liss of Rotowire posted a point-by-point rebuttal. Readers and writers have spent thousands of words trying to convince—me, I guess—that last year's freak of nature trumpets the arrival of baseballs' new savior.
Few people want to buy into last week's column, "12 Reasons Not To Draft Mike Trout". I don't know; I think I'll still lean on the side of gravity rather than lift, but that's just me.
Well, I've gone this far parading around on my soapbox, announcing the fall of Western Civilization and the complete demise of a baseball player not yet old enough to rent a car. I might as well go all in. After all, I'm the captain and it's either reach the destination or go down with the ship, right? So let's do this.
I'll start with three more reasons why I won't draft Trout at his current market price.
13. The players who earn first round value in any given season have a 66% turnover each year, and players who appear on the list for the first time—as Trout did last year—are only a 14% bet to repeat. Those 15 players are a volatile group. Last year, surprises like Trout, R.A. Dickey, Chase Headley and Fernando Rodney pushed out more established players. Expected first-rounders this year, like Prince Fielder, Buster Posey and Albert Pujols, all had excellent seasons in 2012 but did not earn first round value because of the surprises. Repeating as a first-rounder is tough.
I suspect the response I'll get to #13 is, "so why can't Trout be one of the 14%?" Fair enough... you can play the Jim Carrey card: "So you're telling me there's a chance..."
14. I think the hype is starting to far exceed the limits of reality. Recall how we were viewing Mark Prior as the next Tom Seaver, how Ryan Howard so quickly fell off from his first full season in which he hit 58 HRs and batted .313. Yes, I'm cherry-picking examples again, but the more traditional path is to expect some regression in year #2, and sometimes significant. The higher the perch, the steeper the fall.
And all the talk about Trout's comps—Mickey Mantle, Frank Robinson, Al Kaline, Jimmie Fox, Ted Williams—let's be honest here. Any of these players who posted a 20-20-.300 season at age 20 is not a comp. None of these players put up the type of numbers that Trout posted in his rookie year. None of them put up those numbers ever during their careers. The fact that they posted strong follow-ups in their sophomore seasons is not an argument. I'd gladly project Trout to have any of those players' sophomore seasons but it would still be a huge drop-off from what he did last year. Let's stop spouting this nonsense; Trout has no comps. It's just computer-generated noise.
15. Though I hate to mention it, everything needs to be on the table. When a player puts up an historic season, especially one that is so far above his contemporaries, you have to consider that he might have had outside help. Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Alex Rodriguez. If it's true, Trout pulled off his feat during a pitching-dominant era which makes it even more notable. There, I said it. Now let's move on.
People have been asking me what I would do with Mike Trout if, by some stroke of incredible luck he dropped to me at the end of the first round. Would I draft him? The answer is yes, as long as all of the more viable options had been exhausted.
By my accounting, there are probably about a dozen players who will end up earning more roto dollars than Trout this year.
For starters, there are at least seven players who currently have longer-term track records of first-round-worthy skill. They naturally start with Ryan Braun and Miguel Cabrera, the only two players who have been getting picked before Trout in some drafts. Just behind them are Robinson Canó, Andrew McCutchen, Prince Fielder, Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander. Admittedly, I am not one to draft pitchers in the first round, but Kershaw and Verlander have both returned first round value in each of the last two seasons, so you can't bet against them too heavily.
So that's seven that I'd draft first, without a second thought.
The next five or so would probably come from a pool of maybe another 10 players. These are guys with more risk attached to them, mostly because of injury concerns. Matt Kemp, Joey Votto, José Bautista and Carlos Gonzalez head this list. They are currently going in the middle of the first round, but that's based on speculation about their upside. If they are healthy, they will be golden, but we just don't know.
Add to this group another bunch of players who have demonstrated the capability to put up first round value in the past, but also have injury concerns. Most of these guys are currently going in the next few rounds, but really, if they are healthy, they could easily vault back up to the first round. I'm talking about Troy Tulowitzki, Josh Hamilton, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury... heck, even Roy Halladay and Carl Crawford, who were proven first-rounders for many years.
Those are 10 players with a proven track record. If even half of them are healthy, they could be right back as cornerstones for our fantasy rosters.
Of course, I don't know who from among that last group is going to be healthy, but is that risk any greater than risking a top 3 pick on a player with no track record? I'd rather have an experienced player who has done it in the past but has some risk associated with him than a player who has done it once and we have no clue whether that one amazing season is even remotely repeatable. All we have to go on is the fact that he did it—once—as I have been often reminded.
Could Mike Trout have a strong follow-up season? Of course he could. But is that the best percentage play? If Trout has even a 20% chance of repeating at some level—and I'm really being generous here—then those odds are still real and could well happen. I accept the fact that I could be wrong 20% of the time. But I'll be betting on the 80% every time.
RON'S HITS & ERRORS... We are currently auctioning off the last complete set of Baseball Forecasters on eBay. This is the mother lode—every published edition, from 1986 until today—and autographed, if you'd like.
Place your bid here. AUCTION ENDS TUESDAY.
Check out my personal home page for further details and a description of every edition. Join my personal mailing list as well, if you'd like, just for the heck of it.
More From Archives
The e-version of the 2024 Minor League Baseball Analyst is now available to all who have purchased directly from BaseballHQ.com.
Jan 16 2024 6:00pm
Jan 16 2024 6:00pm
Baseball is back soon! And even thought the Hot Stove hasn't seemed to get going, fantasy drafts are happening and there's move to discuss. Join co-GM of BaseballHQ.com Brent Hershey at 12 noon ET for some 2024 talk.
FREE
Jan 15 2024 12:00pm
FREE
Jan 15 2024 12:00pm
The full set of electronic files from Ron Shandler's 2004 Baseball Forecaster are now available for download, if you bought the book direct from BaseballHQ.com. Links inside!
Jan 3 2024 9:00am
Jan 3 2024 9:00am
-300x200.png)
Thursday night, 8pm ET! Join us as we celebrate the hard copy release of Ron Shandler's 2024 Baseball Forecaster.
FREE
Dec 14 2023 8:00pm
FREE
Dec 14 2023 8:00pm
Our first chat of the offseason. Winter Meetings are here, fantasy drafts are underway, and the Baseball Forecaster is a-comin'! Join co-GM of BaseballHQ.com Brent Hershey at 12 noon ET for some early 2024 talk.
FREE
Dec 4 2023 12:00pm
FREE
Dec 4 2023 12:00pm
