FANALYTICS: Tweaking the delicate balance
Aug 22 2013
The models and strategies we've developed here at BaseballHQ.com are driven by the statistical environment in which our game lives. As this environment changes, we have to adjust.
Last year, Ray Murphy wrote about the changes we made to the filters for the LIMA Plan. This month, I have been looking at some of the other models we rely on here.
Mayberry Method
For the individual category scores to work, the talent levels they represent need to be spread across a bell curve, more or less. It doesn't work if everyone scores a 5 in a skill level, or the score skews low towards zero. For instance, these are how the xERA scores are spread:
xERA Score % players ==== ===== ========= 9999 0 9% 4.80 1 12% 4.40 2 ...
Almost!
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