FANALYTICS: Tying up loose ends, part 2
Oct 7 2011
XRD report card
Let's take a look back at eXtreme Regression Drafting (XRD). Can we consider it a success story?
The underlying concept of XRD is that year-to-year player performance does not inherently follow a smooth trend. Rather, surges are followed by declines, and declines by surges, even as overall growth may still occur. These swings are constant and far wilder than we'd care to admit. The greater the movement in one direction, the higher the likelihood of a regression or normalization the following year. Bill James nailed this all years ago.
What this means for us is that we need to significantly downgrade players coming off of peak or career years, and carefully target those who are coming off of down years. In fact,...
Almost!
You’re just a few clicks away from accessing this feature and hundreds more throughout the year that have a singular goal in mind: Winning your league. Subscribe to BaseballHQ.com here!
Already a subscriber? Sign in here
More From Archives
The e-version of the 2024 Minor League Baseball Analyst is now available to all who have purchased directly from BaseballHQ.com.
Jan 16 2024 6:00pm
Jan 16 2024 6:00pm
Baseball is back soon! And even thought the Hot Stove hasn't seemed to get going, fantasy drafts are happening and there's move to discuss. Join co-GM of BaseballHQ.com Brent Hershey at 12 noon ET for some 2024 talk.
FREE
Jan 15 2024 12:00pm
FREE
Jan 15 2024 12:00pm
The full set of electronic files from Ron Shandler's 2004 Baseball Forecaster are now available for download, if you bought the book direct from BaseballHQ.com. Links inside!
Jan 3 2024 9:00am
Jan 3 2024 9:00am
-300x200.png)
Thursday night, 8pm ET! Join us as we celebrate the hard copy release of Ron Shandler's 2024 Baseball Forecaster.
FREE
Dec 14 2023 8:00pm
FREE
Dec 14 2023 8:00pm
Our first chat of the offseason. Winter Meetings are here, fantasy drafts are underway, and the Baseball Forecaster is a-comin'! Join co-GM of BaseballHQ.com Brent Hershey at 12 noon ET for some early 2024 talk.
FREE
Dec 4 2023 12:00pm
FREE
Dec 4 2023 12:00pm
