(*) MASTER NOTES: The $14 dilemma
Apr 18 2014
So... my Tout Wars team is in last place. By a lot. Yes, it's only the middle of April but it still stings. I've never finished in last place in any league I have ever been in. Ever. We're talking 30 years.
What's worse is that it seems like this is where I keep finding myself in April every year in Tout. I open the season and immediately make a beeline for the cellar. It's like I only draft players that crave the damp. Then I spend the rest of the season working to move up, micro-managing my roster to get as high in the standings as I can.
Sometimes things fall my way and I manage to make it into the top 5 or even top 3. Sometimes, like last year, it's a struggle just to make it out of 10th. But whichever way the winds end up blowing, I always seem to start out my Tout Wars season near the bottom. What the heck is with that?
It's always something. This year, I built my bullpen around a $14 Nate Jones. I jumped on a $26 bargain with José Reyes. So I've spent half of April with $40 of dead roster space. Everyone was getting on Scott Swanay's case about leaving $61 on the table. I spent all my money and am still sitting here with a huge chunk of my draft day investment returning nothing.
In Tout, you can cut any player on the disabled list and reclaim his salary to your Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB). That's what Scott did, drafting Brandon Beachy for $61 and then cutting him. So I've been thinking about cutting Nate Jones and reclaiming his $14 salary. But that seems like a knee-jerk reaction after less than three weeks. Despite the fact that we don't know how soon Jones will recover from his injury, we also don't know if Matt Lindstrom is going to hold the White Sox closer role all year. Jones has the skills to be a closer... but maybe $14 has more value to me than hanging on that speculation.
The thing is, common knowledge says that in-season free agent dollars do not have as much value as draft dollars. At the draft, I can be precise with my bids on players. When I spend $20, I am making a deliberate decision to chase a player I believe will be worth $20.
When I bid $20 using in-season FAAB, it's little more than a shot in the dark that the blind-bidding system will land me any specific player. And research shows that, over the course of a season, owners will waste more than 50% of their FAAB dollars on overbids. More than 50% of your budget will be frittered away because we never really know who we're bidding against and how much anyone else is willing to risk. (The only exceptions are leagues that use Vickrey, a system that awards a player to the winning bidder at a price of $1 more than the second highest bid. I am a big proponent of this system. I am also in the minority on this.)
FAAB has always been treated as funny money, but that needs to change. The rise of DL stays and fast-emerging rookies has infused even deep leagues with some solid in-season talent worth chasing. Jose Fernandez was a free agent acquisition in most leagues last year. So was Yasiel Puig. Guys like Sonny Gray, Tyson Ross and Danny Salazar were clearly worth FAABing last summer. Odds are there will be valuable call-ups this year as well.
Having the financial means to grab a fast-rising prospect can be a difference maker. Yes, there is never a guarantee with blind bidding, but there will be valuable players worth pursuing.
So, given these facts, wouldn't an extra $14 in my free agent budget make sense?
Clearly. The question then becomes, is $14 in my pocket now more valuable than the hope that Nate Jones can eventually earn that amount as a closer? And is this something I should even be considering barely three weeks into the season?
I'd like to hear what you think. If you are a BaseballHQ.com subscriber, head over the forums where I've opened up a thread in the Clubhouse area. If you are not a subscriber, head over to the Diamond Club at ShandlerPark.com where I've opened a thread there as well. I'm curious to know what you would do if you were in my situation. Thanks!
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