(*) MASTER NOTES: Chris Davis, First Rounder?
Mar 9 2014
Of all the players currently going in the first round, there is one that I'm having the toughest time coming to terms with.
Chris Davis had a terrific year in 2013. He hit 53 HRs, drove in 138 and batted .286. It was an unexpected monster year during an era when we crave those big power bats. He ranked fourth in roto earnings last year, behind only Trout, Cabrera and Kershaw.
And that is why he is going sixth in the average draft position rankings at the NFBC this spring. In their leagues, he's going as high as fourth but no later than 15th. Essentially, he's being drafted as a full-in first rounder.
If there ever was a full-in exhibition of the recency bias, this is it!
Yes, it's tough to ignore those 53 HRs, but the odds of him repeating that feat are remote. Most analysts are forecasting some regression, perhaps 40-45 HRs. But it's not enough.
Take a look at some other players who had sudden power spikes.
Since 2006 (the post-steroids era?), six players have managed to hit 50 or more HRs in a season. None of them ever hit 50 again. Five of the six couldn't even hit 40 the following year. Four of the six never even hit 40 again.
Most recently, José Bautista hit 54 HRs in 2010, hit 44 the following year and fell short of 30 in the two injury-shortened seasons after that.
In 2007, A-Rod and Prince Fielder both hit over 50 HRs. Neither hit more than 35 HRs the following year, and only Fielder has even one 40-HR season since.
In 2006, Ryan Howard and David Ortiz both hit over 50 HRs. Howard had some 40+ follow-ups, but Ortiz hasn't hit more than 35 HRs since.
All of these players had better support peripherals during their 50-HR seasons than Davis in 2013. Admittedly, Davis is a little bit younger than some of them.
But for me, the scariest part of his 2013 season is the fact that Davis batted only .238 in the second half. That's right—in fact, he batted under .220 in both July and September—those are huge slumps! His final line may have been .286, but if not for his hot start in April and May, his batting average would have been much lower.
And it was the second straight year that he started hot and then faded badly.
So what is Chris Davis most likely to do? The numbers I would be willing to pay for are 35-40 HRs and a batting average around .260-.265. Those are numbers closer to José Bautista, Mark Trumbo, maybe Jay Bruce.
In truth, it's tough to find any real differences between Chris Davis' skill set and that of Giancarlo Stanton. Davis hit into a good deal of good luck last year, was healthier and on a better team, but for all intents and purposes, Davis and Stanton are nearly interchangeable commodities. (In fact, I don't think they've ever been photographed together.)
And where is Stanton being drafted in 2014? Last year, he was going in the first round because of that huge power upside. The old recency bias again is what pushes him back to the tail end of the second round after a disappointing 2013. It's amazing what one season can do to change perception. And it's the same force that's pushed Davis into the first round.
But not for me. If Chris Davis fell to me in the second round, I'd grab him then. But there are far better choices with my first pick.
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