(*) MASTER NOTES: The Fantastic $40 Four
May 30 2014
There are only four players still currently earning $40 or more: Troy Tulowitzki, Giancarlo Stanton, Johnny Cueto and Adam Wainwright. This is an interesting group.
How stable would you consider these guys? If another owner in your league offered you Tulo and Cueto in a deal, and you had to give up somewhat comparable value, would you bite?
Consider how we viewed these players coming into the season:
Tulowitzki was a first-rounder, but he was always a risky pick. He hasn't seen 500 ABs in a season since 2011. Over the past five years, he's lost nearly 200 games to the disabled list from a variety of injuries—fractured wrist, strained groin, fractured rib...
Stanton was a first-rounder last year but dropped to late second round this spring. He also hasn't seen 500 ABs in a season since 2011 and has missed an average of 35 games each of the last two years.
Cueto didn't typically go until the 12th round this spring, thanks to missing 130 games last year. He may be a great pitcher, but he's managed 200 innings only once in his 6-year career.
These first three $40 players hold a unique distinction given their current earnings. None of them have ever finished a season in the top 15. None of them have ever earned first round value.
Wainwright is only a little different. He has been a high earner before, ranking 8th among all players back in 2010. But he's not exactly a low risk player either. Since coming back from Tommy John surgery in 2012, he's yet to string together two halves of comparable Rotisserie performance. Granted, his skill seems stellar, but the last four half-seasons have produced roto earnings of $4, $18, $39, and $19. This year's early surge looks eerily similar to last year when his ERA spiked by a run-and-a-half in the second half. Still, maybe Wainwright is the safest of the four.
But let's go back to that trade offer on the table. Would you give up $70-80 worth of value to get Tulo and Cueto? Would you give up $60 of value?
I would think that, the longer we get into the season, the higher the likelihood that something is going to break down. Back in March, I advised the monthly game players that Tulo was a great pick because the odds were good that he'd at least make it through April. Now he's made it through two months. Are we playing with fire if we still ride him?
And this season is looking remarkably like last season. He currently has 14 HRs and is batting over .370 in 166 AB. At the end of May last year, he had 12 HRs and was batting .337 in 178 AB. Then he barely got 100 ABs over the next two months and bottomed out at a .228 BA in July. Over the last three years, he's hit 31 HRs in April and May... and 32 HRs in June, July, August and September.
Frankly, as much as his stat line looks amazing right now, I could not bring myself to trade for him if I had to give up anywhere near comparable value. Every day that passes increases the risk of some type of breakdown. We knew it back in March—otherwise he'd have been drafted right alongside Miggy and Trout—and we have to know it now. We can't assume his current value will last for another four months.
But what if you only had to hold him for one month? What if you traded for him now, knowing that you would deal him away before the All Star break? Would you make that deal? What if you traded $38 worth of value now to get this $42 player just for a month?
In leagues with active trading, you can actually build a championship around these incremental profits.
It often works that way in the daily games. And in the monthly leagues too.
Tulowitzki has a salary of $38 for the June leagues at ShandlerPark.com. The other three $40 players are even better buys. Stanton's salary is $33. Cueto's is $32. And the player arguably the least risky of the group—Wainwright—has a salary of just $29. The categories are a little different than standard 5x5, but you can still see the opportunities.
The monthly game gives you the chance to manage risk better while still seeking out profit. But for someone who tends to be risk-averse like me... I'd have to think long and hard about rostering any one of those four on my teams. It's still too much salary to tie up in risk. We'll see.
The deadline for June leagues is this Sunday, June 1 at 11pm ET.
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