(*) MASTER NOTES: Feeding the prospect frenzy
Jun 6 2014
If you are a prospect wonk, June is probably your favorite time of year.
The sometimes-controversial and barely-understandable "Super 2" arbitration rules make June a prime window for top prospects to make their MLB debuts. Sure, we have been treated to Xander Bogaerts (IF, BOS) since Opening Day, and George Springer (OF, HOU) since mid-April, just to name two top prospects. But just in the last week, we have witnessed the arrivals of Oscar Taveras (OF, STL), Jon Singleton (1B, HOU) and Eddie Butler (RHP, COL). In the very near future, they are likely to be joined by Gregory Polanco (OF, PIT), Andrew Heaney (LHP, MIA), and perhaps an entire wave of the Cubs' future. And that's just on the National League side.
In addition to all of these MLB arrivals, this week's First-Year Player Draft further drives the prospect buzz. MLB's answer to the NFL or NBA rookie drafts will never match the buzz generated around the draft in those other sports; the players' delayed impact on the MLB clubs ensure that. (That's probably a good thing, as I can do without an MLB equivalent of Mel Kiper, Jr.!)
Still, the FYPD has become more of an event in recent years, and it's not hard to see why: the notion of Draft Night as your first acquaintance with the next Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, or Stephen Strasburg is a pretty compelling hook.
Between the new crop of MLB arrivals and the pre- and post-draft hype surrounding the new draftees, June represents the annual peak interest level in the prospect space.
All of this buzz creates an excellent opportunity... to SELL your prospects and minor-league draft picks into this frenzied environment.
Yes, as with so many other examples in our games, it can be highly profitable to take a contrarian approach; to zig when others are zagging.
If you currently manage a contending team in a keeper league, this is a fairly easy call. The dynamics of dump trades are frequently league-specific, but there is a widespread acknowledgement that you need to spend from your farm system (or your cheap young MLB players) to push your team over the top. As the saying goes, "flags fly forever." When the chance to win comes along, you need to chase it aggressively.
But if your keeper-league team isn't a clear contender at this point, you should consider acting like it is: you can get a great bang-for-your-buck by selling prospects right now. If you find the right deal and can vault into contention, it's worthwhile to sell some of your prospects. If the deal doesn't yield the desired standings effect, there is still enough time to reverse course and do some dumping later on to backfill your farm system or draft pick stock.
Even an also-ran team might be able to find a profitable trade opportunity in this environment: especially if the standings are giving you access to a premium new callup or minor-league draft pick, you might be able to flip that pick for something that represents a better keeper for next year: perhaps one of the pile of Tommy-John rehabbing pitchers, or a younger, still-cheap, post-hype prospect who isn't included in the current frenzy. Someone like, say, Jurickson Profar, who is "out of sight, out of mind" right now, might still be a better 2015 keeper than Jonathan Singleton.
Those in non-keeper leagues can get in on this action: this is a great time to sell a Springer, Taveras, or Singleton. Just as one data point, Springer was the single most-frequently rostered player for the June games over at ShandlerPark.com. That is a testament not just to his salary in that format, but to the notion that people are all too willing to believe that, right now, we are witnessing his emergence as a star.
It doesn't always work that way, though. Springer is likely to have some growing pains at some point, probably soon. If you can bank the profit you have made on him to date, insulate yourself from that slump, and collect a nice bounty of more proven players in the deal, you should jump all over that opportunity. Today may well be the peak of Springer's market value for the foreseeable future.
The world of prospecting is one of the last irrational marketplaces in our games. By all means, enjoy the frenzy this month. Just make sure you are on the profitable side of it.
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