(*) MASTER NOTES: Following the LABR-Mixed draft
Feb 20 2016
Well, here we go into pre-draft season, and that means starting to look at the experts’ drafts. Just the other night, I followed along during the LABR Mixed Draft, the first of the biggies.
The lineup was full of big hitters from the fantasy industry:
- Jeff Erickson, from RotoWire
- Alan Harrison, from TheFantasyFix
- Stephania Bell, from ESPN.com
- Our old friend Todd Zola, from Mastersball
- Steve Gardner, from USA TODAY Sports
- Ray Murphy, from BaseballHQ.com
- Bret Sayre and Mike Gianella, from Baseball Prospectus
- Jake Ciely, from RotoExperts
- Jason Colette and Paul Sporer, ‘Sleeper and the Bust’ podcast
- Howard Bender, from Fantasy Alarm
- Mike Podhorzer, from FanGraphs
- Doug Anderson, from FNTSY
- Rudy Gamble, from Razzball
- Fred Zinkie, from MLB.com
- And Keith Hernandez, from USA TODAY Fantasy Sports
The First Round
Take a guess how the first four went. No prizes for guessing Trout, Goldschmidt, Harper and Kershaw, although I’ve seen some analysts putting Harper ahead of Goldschmidt and even a few suggesting Harper as the top choice overall.
These picks, while “chalk” and easily justified, ran counter to the BaseballHQ.com player projections, where the top four were Kershaw, at $48, then Goldschmidt, at $35, Trout at $34, and Jose Altuve, whose 35 projected bags, 12 HR and .314 BA brought him to a projected $33, a buck ahead of Harper. And, I might suggest, somewhat less of an injury risk.
The rest of the first round: Anthony Rizzo at #5, Nolan Arenado at #6, Manny Machado at #7, Giancarlo Stanton at #8, Carlos Correa at #9, Andrew McCutchen at #10, Miguel Cabrera at #11, Josh Donaldson at #12, Kris Bryant at #13, Altuve at #14 and A.J. Pollock at #15.
We can argue about some of these picks, and I know I raised an eyebrow at the picks of Stanton, a clear injury risk; Correa and Bryant, both of whom seem to offer too much inexperience risk; and Pollock, who looks like a regression risk, especially in HR. I noted that Fred Zinkie, who has been hugely successful as a value hunter in many mixed leagues, got Altuve as a bargain relative to his projected value.
But the key takeaway in round one was the early focus on third basemen. Four 3Bs in the first 15 picks suggests these experts wanted to avoid competing for players in a tier that was a big falloff from the top guns. Sure enough, Todd Frazier went in the second, and Kyle Seager in four, both which seemed like reaches, although Adrián Béltre lasted into five, a slight bargain by BHQ’s projections.
Pitching
As noted earlier, only Kershaw went in the top round, although Max Scherzer went at the back end of the one-two wheel with Pollock. After that, Jake Arrieta and Madison Bumgarner went back-to-back in the mid-second. Jeff Erickson started a serious pitcher run at the two-three wheel, getting Chris Sale at a 10-slot bargain with the 30th pick, then reaching 16 slots for Gerrit Cole. I have to say I was curious about the Cole pick. If the tactic was to set a solid rotation foundation, it might have been better risk management to go with David Price and/or Zack Greinke, both of whom Jeff ranked above Cole (he had Price ahead of Bumgarner and Sale, and Greinke six slots better than Cole). Is Cole’s upside going to surpass either of those by enough to offset what seems to be greater risk?
Ten of the next 17 selections were pitchers. Howard Bender got the biggest bargain with Jose Fernandez at 40, and there were no notable reaches. In all, of the 60 players chosen in rounds two through five, 25 were pitchers.
Runs
Besides that pitching run, there was only one other biggish run, when nine OFs were picked over just 14 picks in the late third and early fourth. You should be aware that there were OF bargains aplenty here. Owners snapped up Justin Upton, Lorenzo Cain, Yoenis Céspedes, Ryan Braun, Nelson Cruz and Jason Heyward, all well after their BHQ value slots, with no reaches of note.
There were a few other smallish runs later in the draft, mostly because owners had filled their infields and needed OFs and pitchers from those relatively deep pools.
Possible bargains and reaches
Overall, the experts stayed pretty close to value in making their picks. Howard Bender had the most bargains, one ahead of the Sayre-Gianella team and Jake Ciely. Doug Anderson and Jeff Erickson had the most picks that were reaches by BHQ’s projections, and it would be interesting to know if those owners were willing to gamble on upside or if they simply had those players projected differently.
Erickson’s pick of Texas OF power prospect Nomar Mazara with the 301st pick (the 20-21 wheel) was the biggest reach of the draft. Clearly Jeff is expecting Mazara to be called up and contribute, even though our BHQ depth chart for the Rangers shows Mazara the 10th OF. Interesting that Mazara went 21 picks earlier than Aaron Hicks, a widely touted sleeper who nonetheless slipped to the 22nd round and a nice 41-slot bargain for Jason Collette.
Among the top bargains, Zinkie landed Melky Cabrera, HQ’s #93 player, with the 314th pick, a massive bargain of 221 slots, like getting a $18 player for $2 in an auction. Brandon Phillips helped Mike Podhorzer fill a tough 2B slot with the 230th pick, not bad for a hitter BHQ projects at 115. Other bargains to note: Rusney Castillo, Adam Lind, Nick Markakis, Mark Teixeira, Avisaíl García and Brandon Belt, all of whom went 100 or more slots later than their BHQ projections imply. If you have any of these guys on your radar, you might feel a little safer waiting on them.
The big reaches included a bunch of catchers—Francisco Cervelli, Welington Castillo, Devin Mesoraco, Stephen Vogt, and A.J. Pierzynski (the last catcher rostered before the Reserve round). These look like the result of urgency to fill a tough slot without really scraping the bottom of the backstop barrel.
The draft also saw some nice potential bargains in the Reserve round. Zola got Martín Prado, and Erickson got Ervin Santana. Many owners snagged potential closers in unsettled bullpens—guys like Keona Kela, Sergio Romo, Luke Gregerson, Corey Knebel and Jeremy Jeffress.
Conclusion
Of course one draft is not necessarily a template for other drafts. Experts’ drafts are often used to generate content, which means taking actions that are designed to be conversation starters. As well, it is commonly believed that experts tend to be quite a bit more aggressive acquiring pitchers than home-league players. The idea that pitching is less risky than we used to think found a receptive audience among touts before it did with readers and subscribers.
Finally, remember that valuations vary widely from one expert to another. Also, remember that drafts create their own internal logic, sometimes causing unusual roster decisions and sparking position runs in different places.
That said, lots of fantasy players follow these drafts, so it pays to keep an eye on them for clues as to which players are being over- and undervalued, and where the value tiers might shake out for your draft.
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