(*) MASTER NOTES: Let's update those roster rules!
Mar 12 2016
A while ago in an earlier Master Notes column, I proposed that we change the Rotisserie “Wins” category by using the Ryan Quality Start, which is seven innings with three earned runs or fewer. The main reason for the change was that wins suck as a category.
That well-reasoned, persuasively argued piece caused a steamroller effect throughout fantasy baseball. In the sense that a steamroller is very, very slow to get rolling. To my knowledge, not one league changed its rules to adopt my clearly superior idea on this topic.
Based on that success, I have another idea to present to improve the fantasy baseball experience. It’s time to adjust our 23-man fantasy rosters to better reflect the modern reality of MLB rosters, and in the process to improve the game-play experience.
A Brief History
The 14-hitter, 9-pitcher model was part of the original formulation of Rotisserie fantasy baseball. I’m a little shaky on the details, but 14/9 was written into the first Roto Constitution by Daniel Okrent, with the help of Alexander Hamilton before he left to become a Broadway hip-hop artist.
The founders set up Rotisserie so that teams in a standard 12-team AL league would draft about 79% of all the players on 25-man rosters. In fact, the Constitution makes a point of saying that an AL league with less than 12 teams should adjust the player pool so that owners “acquire approximately 80% of all available players at (the) auction draft.” Since the AL added a 15th team, the 23-man roto roster captures about 74% of all available players.
Interestingly, the founders did not adhere to their own 80% model if the player pool is considered as separate groups of hitters and pitchers. At the beginning, back in 1980, the 168 hitters drafted were about 75% of available hitters, while the 108 pitchers were more than 85% of available pitchers. Had they applied the 80% rule separately to the hitter and pitcher pools, they would have split the roto roster into 15 hitters and eight pitchers, not 14-and-9.
Changes in MLB Roster Balance
Since the founding, MLB rosters have changed. Simply put, major-league teams roster significantly fewer hitters and way more pitchers than back in 1980. Just to take one example, the Royals’ 1980 Opening Day 25-man roster had 16 hitters (3 C-8 IF-5 OF) and nine pitchers, which was typical for a roster of that time. Fast-forward to 2015, and the Royals Opening Day 25-man roster had 13 hitters (2 C-6 IF-5 OF) and 12 pitchers, also typical of 2015 big-league rosters.
That three-player swing from batters to pitchers has created an imbalance in roto rosters. Because the fantasy game hasn’t kept up with the real game, the 12-team Roto league now drafts 86% of all the hitters. That in turn has depleted the free-agent pool: In 1980, the draft ended with 56 free-agent hitters, nearly five per roto team; today, the draft ends with only 27 free agent hitters—barely two per team and basically just the six worst second catchers in the league and a handful of replacement-level bench-enders.
The roster imbalance has also affected game play and strategy. First, the playing-time opportunities have been redistributed. In 1980, just 8% of all hitters had 600+ PA, while 26% had between 201 and 400. In 2015, the number of 600-PA hitters jumped by five percentage points, to 13%, while the 201-400-PA contingent fell by five points to 21%. So there ae fewer mid-range players to choose from, and we are forced to put more PT eggs in fewer player baskets. It is easy to think that this added PT, and the fewer days off it implies, could be leading to increased injury rates among hitters. And, perversely, these injuries are happening at a time when the shortage of decent replacements means an owner can' replace even a $5 player, much less a $30 star. Almost any injury to a batter can kill a team’s chances.
(At the same time, the explosion in pitchers means AL roto leagues now draft barely half of the rostered pitchers, encouraging extreme Stars-and-Scrubs pitching draft strategies because of the depth of free-agent pitchers available. Buy Smith for a buck, and if he doesn’t pan out, grab one of 72 leftover Joneses.)
The roster shift has changed the game, and not for the better. One of the attractions of playing fantasy baseball is the approximation it offers fans to the real experience of running a team. As we’ve seen, that experience is now at pretty significant odds with the real deal.
How to Reflect 'Real' Baseball Changes in Roto
Fortunately, there is an easy solution. Since the major leagues have recalibrated the hitter-pitcher mix, so should roto leagues.
If we were just to maintain the original distribution mandated by the founders, 75% of hitters, 86% of pitchers, and adjust for the 15th AL team, we would end up with 11 hitters and 12 pitchers. This seems wrong, mostly because real baseball hasn’t yet tipped over to a situation where pitchers outnumber hitters. Yet.
In fact, hitters and pitchers are now almost equal in number on MLB rosters, with a slight edge to the hitters. So it makes sense for roto rosters to have similar shape. And if we adjust the balance to capture 75% of both the hitter and pitcher pools, our rosters would have 12 hitters and 11 pitchers, which is the same 52%-48% balance of those big-league clubs.
All that’s left to do is adjust the roster positions. Many leagues who have made this adjustment have started by eliminating the second catcher slot, which makes sense given the shortage of second catchers already mentioned. But rostering a single catcher seems to lack the “real” experience most roto players want.
Most 2015 big-league rosters set up their 13 hitters with two catchers, six IFs and five OFs, plus the occasional fulltime DH. This adjustment has been eased by multi-position guys like Ben Zobrist, who have (and deserve) extra roto value because of their flexibility. We could set up our rosters with two catchers, five IFs (replace the CI and MI with a single IF), four OFs and a UT slot.
Conclusion
I know ideas like this find it tough to gain traction. Tradition runs deep in fantasy baseball, just like in the real thing. But real baseball has changed. And if our game is to retain its accuracy as a likeness of the real game as it is played, while reducing the effect of injury luck, isn’t it time we changed, too?
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