(*) MASTER NOTES: 'Managing' closers
Jul 4 2014
One of these years, I’m going to guess right on how to play the closer wheel-of-fortune. Except I’m not really sure there is a right way to play that game.
In my years in the Tout Wars Mixed League Auction, I have tried a few different strategies. The first couple of years, I focused on guessing in March which closers would fail in May and be replaced. These ideas worked OK in a limited way. But I didn’t get me ton of points in the saves category, because it is very tough to get correct both pieces of the puzzle (Who’s going to be out? Who’s going to be next?).
In 2013 Tout, I bought Luke Gregerson, thinking Huston Street was going to be hurt at some point. I bought David Robertson in dollar days as a longshot gamble that Mariano Rivera, who was entering his final season, would not get through it at age 126. And I bought Junichi Tazawa, certain that Andrew Bailey would stink, get hurt, or, probably, both.
For various reasons, those plays didn’t pan out. Street was OK, Rivera was his usual indestructible self, and while Bailey stank out the joint right on schedule, I had the wrong Japanese bullpen replacement (for a while—see below). So I turned to Phase B of the master strategy: trolling the free-agent pool for potential closers, based on the news reports, rumors and keen intuition.
In order, I FAABed:
- Brett Myers
- Joaquín Benoit
- Mark Melancon
- Stephen Pryor
- Jared Burton
- Carter Capps
- Ryan Cook
- Sean Doolittle
- Koji Uehara
- Darren O’Day
- Sean Doolittle (again)
- Tony Watson
- Kelvin Herrera
- Jake McGee
Several of these guys actually got me some saves. Benoit scooped me 22, Melancon got 15, Doolittle a couple, O’Day 1, and Trevor Rosenthal, whom I acquired late in the year via trade, got me three.
But you’re now asking yourself: What about Uehara? Signing him was a stroke of genius! He got 21 saves for the Red Sox—how many saves did he get for you?
Uh, one.
I had perspicaciously FAABed him (for a buck!) on May 13, but, somewhat less perspicaciously, I released him a week later when some other bright shiny object (O’Day) caught my eye.
In all, my machinations earned my squad 47 saves, which sounds OK except that it was good for one point in the category, and 20-plus saves behind the next guy.
So this year, I made a major strategic shift. I resolved to budget for saves, and spent a total of $32 on three closers who were certain—certain, I tell you—to get me into the upper reaches of the saves category. How could I miss, with such stalwarts as Casey Janssen of the Jays, Bobby Parnell of the Mets and…Jim Johnson of the A’s?
Pretty easily, it turns out. Janssen got DLed and didn’t pitch until May. Parnell pitched once on March 31, blew the save, went immediately on the DL, had Tommy John surgery, and was out for the year before the season was barely a week old.
And Johnson… What can I say about Jim Johnson that hasn't been muttered, yelled or cursed by fantasy owners around the globe? He couldn't miss! I had rostered him in another league for the two previous seasons—two straight glorious, category-winning 50-save, league-leading seasons. And he was moving to the A’s!
Of course the rest is baseball history, in the same way that the Yugo made automotive history and the watermelon-flavored Oreo made cookie history.
In his first game, Johnson came in in the top of the ninth in a scoreless tie. He gave up two hits, a walk and two runs, both earned. He got exactly one out. Three of his next four appearances were save situations. He gave up six more hits, five more walks, and five more runs, all earned. He lost the closer role temporarily. When Sean Doolittle turned out to be kinda good, and Johnson continued to allow runs at a truly remarkable pace, he was relegated to mopping up in games that are safely out of hand.
I’d feel really bad about my terrible record in closer management, but this is nothing new. Ron Shandler has written in the past about the high failure rate of closers, and this year is no exception.
Of the 30 closers coming out of spring training, 12 have already lost the job.
Two more seem to be teetering: LaTroy Hawkins is now striking out less than 4 batters per nine innings for Colorado (though he is 14-for-15 in save chances), and Joe Nathan is sporting an ERA well over 6.00 and a WHIP over 1.50 despite a 17-for-22 saves record for the Tigers.
Two more closers have already missed part of the season: Janssen and Reds’ fireballer Aroldis Chapman, who took a batted ball in the face in spring training and missed seven weeks.
So the question is: How do we manage the risk in rostering players like this at $10 or more in mixed shallow leagues and often double that in only leagues, when the attrition and failure rate is basically 50%? Fifty percent is the definition of a coin flip!
The easy answer, and one we've all seen dozens of times, is "invest in the sure thing." But there is no sure thing. From 2009-12, there were 64 pitcher-seasons of 30+ saves. But 44 of those 30-save pitchers failed to follow with another 30-plus the next year. Eighteen more pitchers managed 30+ last year, but we can probably already rule out seven of them from repeating this year: Janssen, Ernesto Frieri, Edward Mujica, Grant Balfour, Grilli, Johnson and Kevin Gregg.
There is no sure thing. Chapman was a sure thing, until he got beaned. Johnson was a sure thing, until he sucked. Sergio Romo was a sure thing, until he couldn't find the plate. And on it goes. Enron was a sure thing.
The truth is, they’re all gambles. Every last one of them. So there is no “right way” to play them. Maybe all we can do is make a very basic decision: ya pays yer money and ya takes yer chances—or ya gets out of the game.
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