(*) MASTER NOTES: Opening Day resolutions
Apr 1 2016
As we head into Opening Day weekend and the real stats start to pile up, I am making a few “Opening Day resolutions,” kind of like New Year’s resolutions but with less guilt after the first two weeks.
I hope.
First, a little background. I am playing only two leagues this year, a 12-team 5x5 AL-only and an 15-team mixed 6x6 league that includes some of the regular categories plus OBP (yes, BA and OBP) and Holds for pitchers.
So, without further preamble, besides eating fewer Pringles, walking the dog farther than the end of the driveway and learning to play the piano, here are my four resolutions for Opening Day, 2016.
Resolution #1: Get active, stay active
This actually sounds like a New Year’s resolution. In past years, I think I’ve relied too heavily on my draft and not been diligent enough about in-season management. We’ve learned through some good research that something like 25% of our final stats are not drafted (and for some owners, even more than 25%). That means it’s going to be a top priority for me to stay, if not ahead, at least equal with my competitors in monitoring the free-agent pool. I’ll really be relying on BaseballHQ.com’s scouting section, especially the daily call-ups reports. The usual wisdom is that this is more important in single-league format because of the thinness of the free-agent pool, but I think there’s an argument to be made that the benefits are also important in that 15-team mixed 6x6—because the quality of free agents is higher, it makes sense to get the best ones aggressively.
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Resolution #2: Be less aggressive giving and getting with trade offers
I’m a big believer in being a purely logical trader, and trying to put together deals that offer benefits to both sides, based on category improvement (and especially category improvement by my trading partner that sends him past my overall competitors). Over the last few years, my usual method of launching trade offers has been to provide my potential partner with extremely detailed analysis of how much each of us gains or loses in each category, which other teams get passed, and how passing those other teams also helps us.
This hasn’t really led to making as many helpful trades as I would like. I’m not sure why, because if anyone sent me such an offer, and the analysis made sense to me, I’d do the deal in less time than it takes to eat half a tube of Pringles. Instead, however, I have actually received replies that say, in essence, “I agree with this analysis, and I agree that it will help both of us gain points and hurt our competitors. I’ll pass anyway.” Sometimes it turns out I was asking for a favorite player. Sometimes it turns out the owner had other trading plans for the player. I had an owner in non-experts league once tell me he was just scared to do the deal “because it made too much sense” (no, I wasn’t in a league with Dave Stewart or Ruben Amaro). He said my ability to parse the details of the trade made him think that I knew something he didn’t. In fact, I did know something he didn’t: That the trade would help us both just as I described. This is an occupational hazard when you play in a league with friends and they find out you write about fantasy baseball for BaseballHQ.com and the Baseball Forecaster annual.
So this year, it’ll be different. I have the feeling that trades are best begun gently, so I’m going to emulate the trade offers I get, which are typically vague and offer benefits only in the abstract: “It looks you could use some pitching. What would you offer me for Phil Hughes?” And while I’m pretty sure I will never (again) trade for Phil Hughes, I’m going to try to keep the conversation going by asking about someone else. And avoiding detailed analysis except for my own purposes.
Resolution #3: Take in more games
One of the hazards of thinking and writing about fantasy baseball is that it moves appreciation of the real games, with real players, on a real field, into a subordinate position. I definitely intend to watch more games both live and on TV, and especially to listen to games on SiriusXM or MLB.com.
I don’t believe I’m going to pick up any nuances of J.A. Happ’s delivery from my 500-level seat at Rogers Centre or from the radio, but I should just watch more games. And since my Tout team has a few “mini-stacks” of DET, OAK and TAM, I could nip down to T.O. once in a while and get in a game or two from each of them.
There might also be some useful intel from the broadcasts, especially now that Harold Reynolds isn’t involved in any of them. Radio broadcasts could be extra useful in this regard, since many of them now have local beat reporters as guests in the booth (TV also does this sometimes).
It’s common to hear from experts that the players are “just the roulette balls” in our game, and should be considered as such. That’s what I’ve been doing for a while, so this year I’m going to try to keep track of them as athletes and people, too.
Resolution #4: Take it all less seriously
For too long I have lived and died with every night of action. I have snapped at my kids because John Burkett had just given up nine earnies in 2/3 of an inning. I’ve been despondent because my hitters went a combined 2-for-38 with zero counting stats. I routinely get angry at managers who pull my pitcher when he’s tied, or leave him in, depending on the outcome. This approach is even less healthy than Pringles. So this year, it’s going to be different. I’m still going to try hard and be diligent, but I’m also going to try to remember that it’s just a game, that nothing (much) is riding on the outcome, and that it should be fun. If it isn’t, I’m doing something wrong.
Have a great Opening Day. Here’s Sunday’s lineup…
- 1:05pm ET: STL (Wainwright) @ PIT (Liriano)
- 4:05pm ET: TOR (Stroman) @ TAM (Archer)
- 8:37pm ET: NYM (Harvey) @ KC (Volquez)
And Monday:
- 1:05pm ET: HOU (Keuchel) @ NYY (Tanaka)
- 2:10pm ET: SF (Bumgarner) @ MIL (Peralta)
- 3:05pm ET: MIN (Santana) @ BAL (Tillman)
- 4:05pm ET: SEA (King Felix) @ TEX (Hamels)
- 4:10pm ET: BOS (Price) @ CLE (Kluber)
- 4:10 pm ET: PHI (Hellickson) @ CIN (Iglesias)
- 4:10 pm ET: WAS (Scherzer) @ ATL (Teheran)
- 7:05pm ET: LA (Kershaw) @ SD (Ross)
- 7:10 pm ET: TOR (Dickey) @ TAM (Smyly)
- 9:40 pm ET: COL (De La Rosa) @ ARI (Greinke)
- 10:05pm ET: CHC (Arrieta) @ LAA (Richards)
- 10:05pm ET: CHW (Sale) @ OAK (Gray)
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