(*) MASTER NOTES: What I learned from Virtual Fred
Feb 28 2015
I met “Virtual Fred” last year before the start of my long time NL-only home league. “Actual Fred” is one of our three remaining original owners. On the Saturday before the 2014 MLB season, beer, snacks, and laptops were being unpacked when I got a phone call. Fred was on the line and he didn’t sound good. “Bob, I’m not going to make the draft. I’ve got the flu. I’m really sorry.”
As commissioner, I wanted to solve the problem. Our draft is an auction with teams carrying over 10-14 players. I asked Fred if he had the spreadsheet that he used for the draft. “Of course,” he groaned. “I’ve been working on it for six weeks.” “Maybe you can still participate,” I said. “Send me your spreadsheet with your prioritized list of players and your maximum bid for each one.”
I broke the news that Fred would not be joining us, but that Virtual Fred would participate. With Fred’s spreadsheet I would act as Virtual Fred, and draft my own team. If I was not interested in the nominated player, but he was on Fred’s list, I would bid as Virtual Fred. Fred had highlighted players that were “targets” vs “acceptable” vs “if I have no other choice.” If Fred and I were both interested in a player, I would write down my maximum bid before I looked at Fred’s bid. If my bid was higher I would bid for my team; otherwise I would bid for Fred.
I adopted a robot-like approach as “Virtual Fred.” If Fred’s limit was above the current bid, I immediately raised the bid by the minimum increment. This behavior was unusual in our draft. Over the years our drafts have never had a formal time limit for raising bids. Often, an owner will deliberate for a minute or two before raising. Virtual Fred raised without hesitation. This new dynamic pushed some owners out of their comfort zone, and they sometimes stopped bidding earlier than they might have if Virtual Fred had not been so quick to raise.
When Virtual Fred nominated a player he opened bidding close to his max bid. This was also uncommon in our drafts where most players are nominated at a low price and reach their final price through many incremental bids. When Virtual Fred opened the bidding at a relatively high price he often got the player without another bid being made.
What did I learn from Virtual Fred?
- Stay disciplined to your plan. If you’ve done the prep, trust the prep. Fred had a successful draft even though he wasn’t there. His team finished in the top half of the league. It is important to be flexible and respond to the real-time dynamics of a draft, but we sometimes overreact to unanticipated actions from other owners, and we may be too quick to abandon a well-thought out approach. Because I wrote down my high bid prior to looking at Virtual Fred’s, I stayed much closer to my own spending plan than normal. If we make significant changes to our strategy, how will we ever know if that strategy works?
- Changing drafting dynamics in a long-time league can create an advantage. Several owners seemed unnerved when Virtual Fred immediately raised bids. In leagues where you know the other owners think about how you might throw them off-balance by using a new strategy.
- Real-time data is overrated and a waste of valuable time during a draft. In our league most owners immediately look up the latest news when a player is nominated. After all, you never know when a player will be scheduled for TJ surgery. Over the years I had fallen into that trap too. But I was too busy during this draft working my own team as well as playing “Virtual Fred” to spend time looking at any depth chart changes from the day before. A better use of my time was to focus on my strategy. After all, I worked on it for several weeks (OK, maybe months).
I’ve already applied lessons learned from Virtual Fred. I participated in an NFBC Draft Champions League, which is a 50-round, no free agent pickups, slow draft. Early in the draft when other owners chose players earlier than I had anticipated, or when there was a positional run, I was tempted to alter my plan, but remembering Virtual Fred, I resisted. I also applied the lesson about the dangers of looking at real time data. I had a chance to get V-Mart at the end of the second round. The news about his knee surgery came out when I was on the clock, but I picked him anyway. A week later reports say he will miss little, if any, time. I am glad I didn’t overreact. I’ve got several more drafts coming up the next six weeks. I plan on having Virtual Fred sitting on my shoulder.
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