(*) MASTER NOTES: Where are the singles?
Jul 18 2014
If you watch TV, especially late at night and during sporting events, you’ll see a fair number of ads for websites aimed at attracting singles.
And it looks like MLB should call toll-free with no obligation, because these days it’s harder to find singles at a ball game then in Bill Paxton’s neighborhood on “Big Love.”
In 1976, at the dawn of the free-agent era, there were about 6.5 singles per game. This year, that number is 5.8, a 10-percent drop. And most of it has happened in the last seven seasons—as recently as 2008, games were producing more than six singles. In 2009, though, that number dipped below six, and has declined in more or less a straight line since.
What’s even more striking, and you should forgive the unintended wordplay, is the ratio of singles to strikeouts. Back in 1976, there were 134 singles hit for every 100 strikeouts. By 1995, that number was down to about 100 singles per 100 strikeouts—a one-to-one ratio.
From 1993 to 2005, singles floated around between 90 and 100 per 100 whiffs.
Then began the real slide. Since the 2005 mark of 95, singles per strikeout has declined every single year, and again, forgive the unintended wordplay.
By 2008, the ratio was down to 89. By 2012, it was down to 77. And by this year, a new low at 76 singles per 100 strikeouts.
The same declines are true, and in roughly the same proportions, for overall hits. And since 2005, HRs are down even more as a percentage of strikeouts, from about 16 taters per 100 Ks to less than 12, a 30-percent drop.
No wonder run scoring is down from around five per game 20 years ago to barely four per game now.
Think about all of this for a second. The single is the fundamental outcome that creates rallies, and rallies create excitement. The Earl Weaver formula is supposed to be a bloop, a base-on-balls, and a blast. Now the average rally is a strikeout, a walk, another strikeout and a two-run homer.
Look at it this way: In 1976, an average game of 76 combined plate appearances had a little less than 10 strikeouts, 13 singles, two or three doubles, hardly ever a triple, a home run or two, and about six walks. Even as recently as 2005, we’d see 13 whiffs, 12 singles, four doubles, two HR and the same six walks.
Fast forward to this season, and we get a game that has 15 strikeouts, 11 singles, three or four doubles, two HR and six walks.
What are the reasons for the decline of the single? Nobody knows for sure, but we can guess it’s some combination of factors. We know that hulks hammering homers get bigger paydays than skinny scooters slapping singles. We know that very few batters are inclined to choke up with two strikes, preferring the manly strikeout to the milquetoast opposite-field poke. Speaking of which, we know that batter seem less able to go the other way in general, even as they face six defenders overshifted to the pull side. We know that bunting for a hit is all but a lost art.
We know that organizational philosophies seem to focus on longball hitting. We know that pitching is tougher, especially relief specialists in the later innings. We know that all the relief specialists have reduced the room available for capable pinch-hitters—the guys who used to start late-game rallies by coming off the bench to stroke the timely single.
Is any of this likely to change? Probably when Billy Beane or some other sharp operator realizes that the market is undervaluing singles hitters, the guys who keep rallies going. There aren’t many. From 2005 through ’13, baseball averaged around 17 hitters with 125 singles or more in a season. Michael Young and Robinson Canó had nine such seasons in nine tries. Miguel Cabrera and Derek Jeter had eight. Adrián González, Brandon Phillips, José Reyes, Matt Holliday, Nick Markakis and Placido Polanco, had seven.
This year, 37 hitters are on pace to have 125 or more singles, including pro-rated.
The list of top singles guys is a who’s who of productive fantasy assets. And this year’s crop includes guys to watch for in the future. Brock Holt of BOS won’t reach 125 singles because of his late start at the MLB level, but his 59 singles pro-rate to 157 for a full year, the same as Cano. Seattle’s James Jones pro-rates to 142, keeping company with Adrián Béltre. Breakout star Michael Brantley, barring injury, should finish with around 135, up there with Adam Jones, Alex Rios and … Kurt Suzuki.
So what does this mean for fantasy owners? Clearly there’s more to study about the usefulness of singles as a predictor. But I can tell you this: When I look at the list of top singles hitters over the years and again this year, there’s a lot of guys I wish I had on my fantasy roster.
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