(*) DAILY MATCHUPS: Kershaw (who else?) leads new ratings system on Opening Day

Daily Matchups

Harold Nichols

Mar 28 2018 9:00pm

(*) DAILY MATCHUPS: Kershaw (who else?) leads new ratings system on Opening Day

Harold Nichols

Mar 28 2018

As a way to preview the day's games, the 2018 Daily Matchups column will provide a list of all SP scheduled to start that day as identified by the HQ Pitcher Matchup tool (also available as an 8-day scan). It will group the day's SP into strong starts, judgment calls, or weak startsand will provide an analysis of the most noteworthy SP along the way.

For additional DFS coverage collected in one place, see our Daily Dashboard page. Also reference our three-year ballpark factors, team indicator pages, and SP Buyers Guide columns to help you optimize your SP utilization.

ALL NEW FORMAT FOR 2018!

Happy Opening Day!

Our Starting Pitcher Matchup Scores algorithm has been completely revamped for 2018. Based on this research piece from Arik Florimonte, we now calculate a pitcher's individual Matchup Score for a single start by first calculating an individual score representing his potential performance for each rotisserie category, and then rolling those into an overall rating for the day's start.

This rating assesses each starter's outlook on a given day, taking into account the pitcher’s inherent ability, recent performance, strength of defense, ballpark, and opposition’s offense recent history.

There are roughly 150 starting pitchers in MLB rotations at any given time. For different league sizes, we can estimate the number of SP in the useable pool, and then determine the overall ratings that correspond to worst, 25th percentile, median, and 75th percentile SP.

                               Overall SP Rating
                   SP       by SP league percentile
League size       Pool*     .00    .25    .50    .75
==============    =====    ====   ====   ====   =====
12-team “only”     120     -.73   -.22   +.22   +.74
10-team “only”     110     -.54   -.11   +.30   +.79
20-team mixed      110     -.54   -.11   +.30   +.79
15-team mixed      105     -.46   -.05   +.34   +.82
12-team mixed       80     -.07   +.22   +.55   +.97
10-team mixed       60     +.22   +.46   +.74   +1.12

So if you’re in a 12-team “only” league, the median start should have a rating of about 0.2. The 120th start is around -0.7. In a shallower, 15-team mixed, the median start is 0.34 and a top pitcher +0.82.

One note on the new system: Unlike the prior model, these scores do not use prior-year data for the first month of the season. This algorithm relies on projected data for now, and will incorporate in-season data immediately. There is one limitation with using projected data: the strikeout sub-component is running too low. That will wash out quickly as each SP makes their 2nd and 3rd start of the season. It may not even prove to be inaccurate, since SP tend to not pitch as deep into games early in the year, and typically don't get to peak velocity in April. But if you notice that the Strikeout sub-score is running negative for most pitchers, this will correct soon.

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Today's schedule overview: All 30 teams were scheduled to be in action on the earliest Opening Day in history, but the Nationals/Reds game has already been postponed until Friday because of predicted nasty weather. Rain might also affect the one interleague contest, which has the Pirates at the Tigers. Winds of 12mph blowing in could affect play for Phillies at the Braves and the White Sox at Royals.

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Strong Starts (top tier starts rated >1.0; starts in 0.50-0.99 range also favorable)

Site	Team	SP	Overall Rating	K Rating	ERA rating	WHIP Rating	Wins Rating	Opp Team
Home	LA	Clayton Kershaw	2.01	0.06	2.8	2.49	2.68	SF
Away	BOS	Chris Sale	1.54	0.44	2.58	2.48	0.64	TAM
Away	CLE	Corey Kluber	1.36	0.08	2.24	2.05	1.05	SEA
Home	NYM	Noah Syndergaard	1.25	-0.3	2.45	1.94	0.91	STL
Away	PHI	Aaron Nola	0.86	-0.61	1.7	1.04	1.32	ATL
Away	NYY	Luis Severino	0.77	-0.47	1.64	1.07	0.82	TOR

Noah Syndergaard (RHP, NYM) will open what he hopes is his rebound season against the Cardinals in New York. He had his 2017 season ruined by a partially torn lat. And while he returned for 3 IP at the end of last season and had a strong spring (1.35 ERA), his F health grade says to be cautious until he demonstrates that he's fully healthy. He's probably the most risky of these strong starts.

Aaron Nola (RHP, PHI) will face the Braves in Atlanta. Nola was stronger at home last season (2.98 ERA) than on the road (4.24 ERA), but he alsolutely owned Atlanta in two starts, allowing only 2 ER in 15 IP with a 12/1 k/bb ratio. He also gets a weather advantage in Suntrust Park in this outing, with the 10+ mph wind forecast to be blowing in.

Luis Severino (RHP, NYY) is in Toronto to face the Blue Jays. Last season Severino was at his best on the road, with a 2.24 ERA, and in one start in Rogers Centre he allowed 2 ER in 7 IP with a 7/1 k/bb ratio. His matchup sub-scores are solid across the board, and he looks like a good option in this outing.

Judgment Calls (Overall ratings from -0.50 to 0.50)

Site	Team	SP	Overall	K Rating	ERA rating	WHIP Rating	Wins Rating	Opp
Away	CHC	Jon Lester	0.45	-0.88	1.15	0.56	0.98	MIA
Home	TAM	Chris Archer	0.41	-0.15	1.73	1.2	-1.14	BOS
Away	LAA	Garrett Richards	0.15	-1.12	1.02	0.06	0.63	OAK
Away	COL	Jonathan Gray	0.14	-0.94	1.1	0.42	-0.03	ARI
Away	HOU	Justin Verlander	-0.09	-0.76	0.25	0.3	-0.16	TEX
Away	STL	Carlos Martínez	-0.19	-0.88	1.28	0.26	-1.41	NYM
Home	KC	Danny Duffy	-0.21	-1.26	0.23	-0.01	0.21	CHW
Home	ARI	Patrick Corbin	-0.23	-1.28	0.84	-0.01	-0.47	COL
Away	PIT	Iván Nova	-0.24	-1.79	0.29	-0.01	0.57	DET
Home	BAL	Dylan Bundy	-0.33	-1.09	-0.26	-0.23	0.28	MIN
Home	SEA	Félix Hernández	-0.43	-1.1	0.85	0.08	-1.55	CLE
Away	MIL	Chase Anderson	-0.46	-1.29	0.1	-0.14	-0.49	SD

Jon Lester (LHP, CHC) opens on the road against a Miami team that is a shell of its 2017 lineup. Lester's CTL of 3.0 last season raises his WHIP risk, but he has a strong win rating against the new Marlins. Lester was not great on the road last season, with a 4.41 ERA. In one game in Marlins Park, he allowed 3 ER in 7 IP and fanned only 4. Chasing starts against this Marlins lineup is likely to be a season-long pursuit; Lester gets the first shot today.

Chris Archer (RHP, TAM) opens the season at home against Boston. Archer was solid at home last season, with a 3.26 ERA, but he struggled to a 5.87 ERA in three starts against the Red Sox (although two of those were in Fenway Park). Archer's projected skills produce solid K, ERA, and WHIP sub-scores, but this matchup makes a win less likely, and drops Archer out of the Strong Start category.

Jonathan Gray (RHP, COL) rates a barely-positive rating for a road outing against Arizona, making him (and Patrick Corbin) the first test cases for the new humidor. Gray made two starts there last season (without the humidor of course), winning both and holding the Diamondbacks to 4 ER in 13 IP, with an amazing 20/1 k/bb.

Justin Verlander (RHP, HOU) used H%/S% magic after his trade to Houston last season to make him appear ace-like once again. He'll attempt to keep that magic going against the Rangers in Arlington. Unfortunately, he did not fare well in Rangers Ballpark last season, allowing 7 ER in 12 IP, including 5 HR, in spite of an outstanding 19/0 k/bb. All of Verlander's sub-scores are mediocre here, underscoring the risk profiles here.

Danny Duffy (LHP, KC) has been dealing with a shoulder injury but is listed as probable for a home start against the White Sox. This is a start with lots of questions. Duffy's matchup sub-scores are all weak. Last season he pitched well in Kauffman Stadium, with a 3.48 ERA. But the White Sox found him very hittable, pounding out 34 hits in 22 IP, and producing 19 ER without a home run. Avoid.

Patrick Corbin (RHP, ARI) had an attractive 3.15 ERA at home last season, but he is still not a recommended play for a home start against Colorado. Corbin's ERA is the only positive matchup sub-score, with wins, WHIP, and k's all at risk. Last season Corbin made four starts against the Rockies and allowed 10 ER in 22.1 IP. This is a risky outing.

Iván Nova (RHP, PIT) pitched well in PNC Park last season with a 2.80 ERA and an 8-2 record. Unfortunately, his first start of the season is on the road in Detroit. On the road last year, Nova had a 5.02 ERA and a 3-12 record. This start has a positive win rating, but the rest of Nova's matchup rating is risky, and Nova's road woes last season make it a start to avoid.

Weak Starts (Overall ratings -0.51 and below)

Site	Team	SP	Overall	K Rating	ERA rating	WHIP Rating	Wins Rating	Opp
Home	TOR	J.A. Happ	-0.55	-1.21	0.4	-0.05	-1.32	NYY
Home	TEX	Cole Hamels	-0.57	-1.49	0.13	-0.58	-0.34	HOU
Home	SD	Clayton Richard	-0.63	-2.09	0.41	-0.83	-0.01	MIL
Away	CHW	James Shields	-0.93	-1.53	-0.39	-1.09	-0.71	KC
Home	ATL	Julio Teheran	-1.02	-1.44	-0.23	-0.57	-1.82	PHI
Home	OAK	Kendall Graveman	-1.08	-2.22	-0.1	-0.85	-1.13	LAA
Away	MIN	Jake Odorizzi	-1.09	-1.54	-1.04	-1.01	-0.78	BAL
Home	DET	Jordan Zimmermann	-1.21	-2.16	-0.86	-0.75	-1.07	PIT
Home	MIA	José Ureña	-1.29	-2.07	-0.45	-1.16	-1.48	CHC
Away	SF	Ty Blach	-1.93	-2.54	-0.8	-1.19	-3.18	LA

Julio Teheran (RHP, ATL) had a strong spring (25 IP, 6 BB/17 K, 1.40 ERA) while reportedly sharpening both his slider and changeup. The new-look Phillies lineup should be improved from last year. But if you must speculate among this largely-unappealing tier, Teheran may be the best option.