(*) DAILY MATCHUPS: Young arms face stiff tests

Daily Matchups

Harold Nichols

Jun 5 2014 11:02pm

(*) DAILY MATCHUPS: Young arms face stiff tests

Harold Nichols

Jun 5 2014

As a way to preview the day's games, the 2014 Daily Matchups column seeks to highlight the outliers or notable matchups on BaseballHQ.com's HQ Pitcher Matchups tool (also available as an 8-day scan). For more information on how to leverage the report, see our research article from 2012.

Today's schedule overview: All teams are in action, with one day game, as Miami visits the Cubs. Everything else is under the lights. St. Louis is at Toronto in the only interleague contest.

Best SP choices

Johnny Cueto (RHP, CIN) brings a 1.68 ERA and 0.76 WHIP into a home start against the Phillies. This will be Cueto's first start against the Phillies since 2011, so there is no track record against this lineup, but he's been almost untouchable at home with a 1.31 ERA and a .135 oppBA. The Phillies are hitting .254 with a .692 OPS on the road, but they are hitting only .231 against RHP, with a .646 OPS, the fourth lowest in the majors. They have only a 30% FB%, while Cueto has a 52% GB%, so expect a lot of ground balls in this one. Cueto is our top SP choice of the day.
Dallas Keuchel (LHP, HOU) had a string of four consecutive PQS-DOM performances broken in his last start, and he'll attempt to get back on track against Minnesota at Target Field. Keuchel has been outstanding on the road, with a 1.64 ERA, and he's been on fire over the past month with a 1.56 ERA. The Twins are hitting .250, with a .716 OPS at home, but they are hitting only .234 with a .656 OPS against LHP.

Worst SP choices

Trevor Bauer (RHP, CLE) has been inconsistent in his four starts this season, producing two PQS-DOM performances, along with a PQS-2 and a PQS-0. That PQS-DIS came in his only road outing, and today he faces the Rangers at Texas. The Rangers are not hitting especially well at home, with a .248 BA and .684 OPS, but Globe Life Park in Arlington could be a problem for Bauer, as it inflates LHP homers by 22% and RHB homers by 13%. Bauer has a 39% FB%, and a currently unlucky 18% hr/f. "An elite high-risk, high-reward proposition," to channel SP analyst Stephen Nickrand, is very appropriate to this start.
Rubby de la Rosa (RHP, BOS) was outstanding in his first home start for the Red Sox, allowing no earned runs in 8 IP, with 8 strikeouts and no walks against Tampa. His next start is a much tougher proposition, as he faces the Tigers in Detroit. The Tigers are hitting .281 at home, with the third best home OPS in the AL at .764.

Risk/reward SP choices

Jason Hammel (RHP, CHC) has thrown a PQS-DOM performance in each of his 11 starts this season. He'll attempt to keep the streak going against Miami in Wrigley Field. Overall, Hammel has a 2.78 ERA, and he has given up more than 3 ER in only one start. Miami is hitting .237 with a .677 OPS on the road.
Jered Weaver (RHP, LAA) struggled a bit in his past two starts, both on the road, allowing 8 ER in 12 IP. He'll attempt to get back on track with a home matchup against the White Sox. Weaver has been at his best at home, yielding a 2.76 ERA, compared to 4.00 on the road. Over the past three seasons, he's faced the White Sox three times and has fared well against them, with a 1.33 ERA. The White Sox are hitting .248 with a .700 OPS on the road.
Marcus Stroman (RHP, TOR) has a 3.71 grade in his home matchup against the Cardinals. In his only start this season, Stroman threw a PQS-5 outing against the Royals, allowing one earned run in six innings, with six strikeouts and no walks. Stroman opened the month of May in the Blue Jays bullpen and was outstanding in his first three outings. In mid-May, however, he had two consecutive appearances in which he allowed four ER in less than 2 IP. He was demoted and allowed 7 ER in 9 IP at AAA Buffalo. He then returned to throw the gem against the Royals. The Cardinals are hitting .247 with the fifth lowest road OPS in the majors at .645. Stroman's high grade is the result of a tiny sample size, so this start comes with some risk.