NL West: Could Ryne Nelson miss out in ARI?

Arizona Diamondbacks

Could two veteran pitchers with large contracts push the Diamondbacks two best young starters to Triple-A to open the season? Thirty-one-year-old LHP Eduardo Rodriguez and thirty-two-year-old LHP Jordan Montgomery will earn $20 million and $22.5 million, respectively, this season. Both missed time and did not pitch well when they were on the mound, while twenty-six-year-old RHP Brandon Pfaadt and twenty-six-year-old Ryne Nelson both pitched very well last year.

Pfaadt made 32 starts and pitched to a 4.71 ERA and 1.24 WHIP with an 18% K-BB%. While the 4.71 ERA isn’t pretty, he had an xERA of just 3.76, largely due to a very high 34% H% and a very low 64% S%. He looks primed to take another step this season.

After a tough first half (5.69 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, with just a 9% K-BB% over 68 IP), Nelson was excellent over his 82.2 IP in the second half. He lowered his ERA to 3.05 and his WHIP to 0.99, while increasing his K-BB% to 19%. The second half breakout is supported by a 3.41 xERA and was driven by an increase in his K% from 14% to 24%. His SwK% was still just 9.1% which puts a ceiling on his K% and may make it difficult to reach that 24% rate again.

Rodriguez looks to be locked into the fourth spot in the rotation behind RHP Corbin Burnes, RHP Zac Gallen and RHP Merrill Kelly, so barring injury the fifth spot comes down to Montgomery, Pfaadt and Nelson. Despite his hefty salary, we don’t see Montgomery winning a spot, particularly given the fact that he is just now facing live hitters while dealing with a left index finger injury. We give Pfaadt the slight edge based on his overall numbers last season. But with Rodriguez’s injury history and the fact that Kelly missed almost four months last season with a shoulder strain, both Pfaadt and Nelson should hopefully see plenty of opportunities with the Diamondbacks this season. Both should be drafted in most fantasy formats, certainly at least until manager Torey Lovullo decides on who will break camp with the team.

---

Tools. Analysis. Commentary. And most of all—a tradition of winning. Access it all with a subscription to BaseballHQ.com. 

---

Colorado Rockies

Twenty-eight-year-old right-handed hitting Sean Bouchard entered spring training last season with a real shot at winning the Opening Day job in RF. However, his season of struggles and injuries at the major league level began in March and he never was able to get on track in Colorado (.187/.290/.297 with just 1 HR in 108 PA). He spent most of the season at Triple-A Albuquerque, where he hit .324/.418/.642 with 11 HR over 208 PA. Those numbers are impressive, but Isotopes Park, with an elevation of 5,100 feet above sea level, is known as one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the minor leagues. In other words, take those numbers with a grain of salt.

Bouchard is getting a good look this spring. While his numbers with the Rockies last season were weak, over a total of 248 PA from 2022 through 2024 he is still a career .251/.368/.443 hitter with 8 HR and 4 SB. He had a 20% Brl% in 140 PA in 2022 and 2023 (but just a 5% Brl% last season) and has a career 148 HctX, 151 PX and 169 xPX. A career major league 29% K% and 64% ct% take some shine off his intriguing hard contact and power potential, but if he can make more contact, he could force himself into some playing time. It would likely be as a short-side platoon outfielder, but with Kris Bryant penciled in as the starting DH, odds are that playing time could open up if Bouchard can replicate some of the success he found in his first two stints with the Rockies in 2022 and 2023.

 

Los Angeles Dodgers

Dodgers top prospect Dalton Rushing is mostly viewed to be ready to contribute at the major league level. The 24-year-old was a second-round pick by the Dodgers out of Louisville in 2022 and has excelled in his two-plus seasons in the minors. Over 1018 PA from Low-A through Triple-A he has hit a combined .273/.410/.520 with 49 HR. He also has demonstrated strong plate discipline (16% BB%) to go with a good 21% K%. Unfortunately for Rushing, playing time for a Dodgers prospect is hard to come by.

Rushing is a catcher by trade and the Dodgers have indicated they would like for him to remain at the position long-term. However, with All-Star C Will Smith signed through 2033, the team is exploring other options to get Rushing’s bat in the lineup. In the minor leagues he made 23 appearances at 1B in 2023 and one appearance at 1B and 31 in LF last season. This spring he has played C and DH in games but has also been getting work at 1B. Manager Dave Roberts has said it is “TBD” how much time Rushing will see in the outfield this season.

With the Dodgers exercising the 2025 team option on veteran backup C Austin Barnes, it doesn’t appear if Rushing is in-line to see action behind the plate unless Smith is injured. With 1B Freddie Freeman likely to get some days off to rest his right ankle there may be some opportunities at 1B, as well as DH given Shohei Ohtani's return from injury and return to pitching. 

We don’t anticipate the Dodgers keeping Rushing on the major league roster unless he is going to get regular playing time. Rushing will likely need to bide his time at Triple-A Oklahoma City waiting for his chance to make his major league debut—most likely via injury to someone on the MLB roster. 

 

San Diego Padres

With the Padres signing RHP Nick Pivetta to a four-year, $55 million contract in February, their starting rotation went from two large holes to one. The potential options for the 5th starter include RHP Matt Waldron, RHP Randy Vasquez and RHP Jhony Brito, while LHP Kyle Hart and RHP Stephen Kolek have joined the competition.

Hart signed a one-year, $1.5 million contract in February after a stellar season with the NC Dinos of the Korean Baseball Organization. Kolek, who made 42 appearances out of the bullpen for the Padres in 2024 in his first taste of major league action, is being stretched out as a starter. He was a starter at Low-A Great Lakes in 2019 and at Double-A Arkansas in 2022 but has been a reliever the last two seasons.

Waldron, Vasquez, Brito and Kolek have all made two appearances this spring, with all but Vasquez pitching effectively so far. Hart has yet to make his spring debut. Based on last year’s results and what we have seen thus far in spring training, we lean toward Waldron as the favorite. If Hart can pitch effectively when he is able to take the mound, he could wrestle the job away. Brito and Kolek could benefit from some time at Triple-A El Paso to get stretched out and Vasquez pitched poorly in his 20 starts with the Padres last season. 

All five have minor league options, so the four who don’t win the final rotation spot should all start the season at Triple-A El Paso. Between injuries, the potential for RHP Dylan Cease to still be traded at some time before or during the season and potential performance issues, all or most of these pitchers should see some time at the major league level in 2025. 

 

San Francisco Giants

Giants OF Heliot Ramos rose as high as #38 on the BaseballHQ.com HQ100 top prospects list back in 2020. At age 24 he finally received an opportunity to get regular playing time in the major leagues last season. He joined the Giants in early May when OF Jorge Soler went on the IL and was a fixture in the lineup in LF or CF the rest of the season. With OF Jung Hoo Lee returning to man CF after missing most of the 2024 season due to a shoulder injury, Ramos is expected to be the Giants every day LF and hit in the middle of what should be an improved Giants lineup.

After a very solid rookie season (.270/.322/.469 with 22 HR and 6 SB in 518 PA), should we expect more of the same from Ramos in his second full season? We believe Ramos’ underlying skills fully support a repeat of 2024 and fantasy managers should feel confident drafting him as their third or fourth OF in deeper leagues.

Ramos demonstrated some very solid underlying metrics that support his ability to repeat and even improve on his 2024 results. He hits the ball hard as demonstrated by his 110 HctX, 129 PX, 126 xPX and a 15% Brl%. A 71% ct% in his first full season is fine, but with a 15% Brl% if he can make any improvement to his ct% he could add to his 2024 HR total and offensive numbers across the board.

More From PT Tomorrow