(*) PT TOMORROW: AL West—Roster expansion ripples
Sep 1 2015
The Astros will bring on more potentially helpful, MLB-experienced September call-ups than any of their divisional counterparts, which creates both interesting and treacherous fantasy scenarios given their precarious three-game lead in the AL West. Throw in the wildcards of Carlos Correa's balky hamstring, August slumps from Carlos Gómez (.220 BA, 2 HR through 100 AB) and Jed Lowrie (.165 BA, one HR through 79 AB), the imminent DL return of George Springer (OF, HOU) and a crowded-and-capable rotation, and there's plenty to watch here.
On the position side, Springer returns to an offense that has struggled since his injury, particularly in August. Though the verdict is out as to how his wrist injury might impact his immediate power, Springer will at least be starting most days in the OF. Likewise, despite the August slump—.152 BA, 2 HR over 46 AB—that led to his demotion, Preston Tucker (OF, HOU) should get at least part-time OF AB vs. some RHP, thereby crowding the OF picture even further. Expect Jake Marisnick and Marwin Gonzalez (U, HOU) to lose most of their recent OF AB, and even a few more days off for Gomez should his slump continue. Down-the-stretch playing time in the HOU OF will likely be doled out in terms of recent production. Until/unless Springer and Gomez begin to light things up, no one here looks like an everyday lineup fixture.
Thanks to his versatility and 2H production (.320/.366/.492, 39% h% through 122 AB), Gonzalez may not lose many AB, particularly given the black hole that has been the HOU first-base position. Gonzalez is also a backup at third base, as well as shortstop for Correa, who was finally back in the lineup on Monday after missing four straight games, but whose injury could mean more precautionary downtime.
Jon Singleton, L.J. Hoes and Jon Villar (SS, HOU) are also 40-man roster names with MLB experience. But only Villar looks interesting in this final month, and strictly as a pinch-runner, as noted earlier by Alex Dopp here. Villar's elite running game has been on display again at Triple-A (35/9 SB/CS), and the Astros should employ him in the late-innings for as long as their post-season remains on the line. Breakout rookie A.J. Reed and unheralded Tyler White are potential wildcard call-ups that could be used at first-base, but their lack of MLB experience and absence from the 40-man roster stamp them as long-shot speculative plays.
HOU's crowded rotation and outstanding bullpen leaves little room for newcomers. But expect the returns of SPs Dan Straily and Brett Oberholtzer along with RPs Josh Fields and Michael Feliz (RHP, HOU), all of whom will be called upon to eat blowout innings and get situational outs as needed. Only Fields and Feliz are moderately attractive over the short-term in strikeout leagues. The 22-year-old Feliz—2.83 ERA, 103/32 K/BB over 111 IP at Double-A, mostly as a SP—would be more interesting under less crowded circumstances, and has a bright longer-term future, whether in the rotation or as a late-inning relief option.
In their effort to run down the Astros, the Rangers will likely continue to go with what has been working extremely well offensively, suggesting that few of their established veterans and current surgers are likely to get much time off until their post-season fate has been resolved. It also means that injury returnees and potential call-ups like Josh Hamilton (OF, TEX), Kyle Blanks, and Ryan Rua will see limited playing time barring injuries to the regulars. Standing out is Hamilton—.254 BA, 6 HR through 142 AB—who reportedly still can't run well on his left knee. And now with Will Venable playing LF vs. RHPs, Hamilton will likely be relegated to a pinch-hitter role down the stretch. Ditto Joey Gallo, though his left-handed power immense power—23 HR at Triple-A, 5 HR in 87 AB at TEX—could be worth a flyer for fantasy owners in tight HR races.
Another interesting note comes from Monday comments made by GM Jon Daniels, who said that Jurickson Profar (2B, TEX) could be activated sometime in September. Once one of MLB's elite prospects, the 22-year-old Profar has missed all of the past two years with shoulder injuries, but is finally rehabbing in Triple-A (3-for-16). His age still gives him a shot at an MLB career, but Profar's inactivity makes it extremely unlikely that he'll get many late-season opportunities in TEX.
One positional area that could receive a boost is the catching corps, as the Rangers are hopeful that both Robinson Chirinos (C, TEX) and Carlos Corporan (C, TEX) will be activated at some point in September. But with both catchers coming off injuries and no reason at all to ship out current backstops Chris Gimenez or Bobby Wilson, bet that there will be part-time play all around and little fantasy edge to be had.
The shaky rotation suggests that TEX will ensure it has plenty of arms on hand to throw at different game situations. The name that stands out more than others is Alex "Chi Chi" Gonzalez (RHP, TEX), who could see a start or two over these final weeks. But while Gonzalez generates plenty of GBs and has a rotation future, his first 55 IP in TEX earlier this season—4.25/4.88 ERA/xERA, 4.1 Ctl, 4.3 Dom—say he remains a risk for now.
Other than the return of David Freese (3B, LAA) and iffy recovery of Johnny Giavotella (2B, LAA) from the DL, there's just not much to see here. Despite the Angels' recent across-the-board struggles—offense, rotation, bullpen—poor depth and one of MLB's weak farm system offers nothing on the September horizon that we can even marginally recommend. With reports of the Angels interest in extending him this off-season, Freese will get most of the remaining 3B AB, taking over for placeholder Kaleb Cowart (3B, LAA), who has been 8-for-39 with a HR and SB in his place. The switch-hitting Cowart could still have miniscule deep-league value in spelling Freese against some RHPs, but his 5-for-22 line with 11 Ks vRHP doesn't inspire much confidence. Giavotella will reportedly return before the end of the season, but no one will guesstimate when or offer any clues as to the illness that has him sidelined. Replacement Grant Green (2B, LAA) has gone 1-for-18 with a HR and 7 Ks in his absence.
A pitching staff running on fumes and leaving August with a 5+ ERA for that month will have plenty of innings for Triple-A SPs Nick Tropeano (RHP, LAA) and Drew Rucinski (RHP, LAA), be they in long relief or in spot starts. But neither pitcher has an ERA of less than 5.50 in their limited MLB work. And even if their light begins to flicker on, why take flyers on a team whose offense is dead last in AL scoring since the All-Star break? There's plenty of opportunity in Anaheim, but fantasy owners are better off staying away for now.
Now searching for a new GM and perhaps a new manager following a disappointing season, SEA isn't a good bet to promote outside the 40-man roster this month. With struggling Félix Hernández missing a start to "help keep him fresh for September," the role yo-yoing of Vidal Nuno, the #4-5 rotation spots in constant flux, and a horrible pen, a volatile pitching staff is one area where change still remains likely. His raw stuff and MLB career numbers—3.05/3.85 ERA/xERA, 7.2 Dom, 53% GB% over 27 starts—make James Paxton (RHP, SEA) the most interesting name with potential September impact. But Paxton's effort to return from a strained middle finger tendon has hit a speed bump in his first two minor league starts—3 2/3 IP, 7 hits, 3 BB, 2 Ks—leaving questions as to where he goes from here. To be continued.
In the bullpen, ongoing ninth inning questions make the likely return of Danny Farquhar (RHP, SEA) mildly watchable. Considered to be the closer-in-waiting to Fernando Rodney during the pre-season, Farquhar's horrible 1H—6.49 ERA, 1.4 hr/9 over 26 IP—eventually resulted in a Triple-A demotion. Farquhar seems have corrected some things at AAA-Tacoma, where he allowed just three runs in his final 22 IP (0 HR, 22/3 K/BB), and his SEA results were a little better during a six IP stint in August. Though Tom Wilhelmsen currently has a (shaky) grasp of the Mariners closer role with the more skilled Carson Smith awaiting his next shot, nothing pertaining to this pen is set in stone, either now or in 2016.
With Ketel Marte getting an extended look at SS, the likely return of Chris Taylor, and the departure of Austin Jackson, Brad Miller (SS/CF, SEA) will get an extended look in CF, particularly vs. RHPs. Thanks to some h% luck, Miller has improved his BA in the 2H (.261 through 138 AB) and continues to run, though his post-June HR output and power have tapered off. His play in September will give SEA some indication as to whether Miller can handle the defensive demands here or is best used going forward as a roving utility off the bench. Regardless, he will qualify at both shortstop and OF in 20/5 leagues entering 2016.
The departure of Scott Kazmir and what looks like season-ending injuries to Jesse Hahn, Kendall Graveman and Chris Bassitt have thinned out the OAK rotation. Shut down since late June, A.J. Griffin's return from Tommy John surgery has not gone as hoped for in the pre-season, leaving the September rotation opportunities to the likes of Felix Doubront (LHP, OAK), Aaron Brooks (RHP, OAK) and Cody Martin (RHP, OAK). Now minus the velocity and dominance of his earlier years, Doubront has morphed into a ground-ball finesse lefty with bottom-of-the-rotation upside at best, with rookies Brooks and Martin having similar ceilings. And while Martin showed 1H flashes in his MLB debut—5.40/3.72 ERA/xERA, 10.0 Dom, 2.9 Ctl in 22 IP— before being traded from Atlanta, inexperience, a bottom-tier offense since the All-Star break, a shaky bullpen and MLB's worst team defense keeps us from recommending him or Brooks down the stretch.
Similar to SEA, the final month efforts of Sean Doolittle (LHP, OAK) and Drew Pomeranz (LHP, OAK) could inform the A's as to which way they'll go this off-season and into 2016 with their closer role. Three games into his return from rehabbing a rotator cuff injury, ex-closer Doolittle hasn't looked particularly impressive in terms of either results (2 2/3 IP, 3 runs, 3 BB, 2 Ks) or velocity. Pomeranz currently has tentative grasp of the ninth inning thanks to saving his best month of the season for August—1.35 ERA, 21/1 K/BB, 2 saves and a 247 BPV in 13 IP. It's something else to watch.
Mark Canha (1B/OF, OAK) owns most of 1B as well as an everyday lineup spot after owning August—.309/.333/.532 in 94 AB—since hip surgery ended regular first-baseman Ike Davis' season. While he won't hold onto his recent 37% h% and his bb% plunge is problematic, the right-handed-hitting Canha has surprisingly held his own vRHP—10 HR, .278 BA through 278 AB—all year. Canha now gets an opportunity to lock down a most-of-the-time job with his September effort.
After being injured for most of the season Tyler Ladendorf (2B, OAK) is expected to re-join the team at some point, if he already hasn't, and get some AB from the problematic second base spot. But the 27-year-old Ladendorf—.265 BA, 1 HR, no SBs, 5/23 BB/K through 83 AB in Triple-A—projects as a utility at best. Which leaves the big question as whether the A's will add either Joe Wendle (2B, OAK) or torrid Chad Pinder (2B, OAK) to their 40-man roster for a September audition. After hitting a loud .340+ over the last three months in Double-A, Pinder may already be the best in-house offensive 2B option going forward.
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