(*) PT TOMORROW: NL East—If Valverde fails, who's next?
Apr 3 2014
With Bobby Parnell (RHP, NYM) out indefinitely after suffering a partial tear of the medial collateral ligament in his right elbow, Jose Valverde (RHP, NYM) has taken over closer duties. Hidden behind the 5.59 ERA Valverde had in just 19 IP a year ago is a 3.85 xERA, 8.8 Dom, 2.8 Ctl and 102 BPV (best Ctl and BPV since 2008). Of course, that’s a very small sample size.
If Valverde fails, who’s next in line?
Jeurys Familia (RHP, NYM) could be next in the pecking order. He has the stuff to close, but has battled injuries and failed to put it all together. Poor control (6.8 Ctl in 23.2 career big league IP; 3.9 Ctl in 576.2 minor league IP) has been a bugaboo. Left-handed batters have also given him fits (.324/.419/.405, 1 HR in 43 PA in majors; .270/.357/.413 with 12 HR in 517 PA in minors). However, his mix of a four-seam fastball in the mid to upper 90s, hard sinker and slider generate plenty of swings and misses when he is able to keep it around the plate. The 24-year-old had a pretty good spring (11.1 IP, 9 H, 2 ER, 5 BB, 7 K) and seemed to show somewhat improved control for the most part (3 of his 5 BB came in one outing).
Vic Black (RHP, NYM) disappointed this spring and was sent to Triple-A Las Vegas. A whopping 10 BB in 9.1 IP this spring sealed his fate. Black had an 11.0 Dom and 4.5 Ctl in 178.1 minor league IP prior to his promotion to the majors a year ago, so it wasn’t a complete surprise to see him struggle with his control this spring. However, the 2.8 Ctl he posted in 13 IP last September gave reason for optimism that he was headed in the right direction. Much like Familia, if Black can harness the free passes, he could get a shot at the job.
The sleeper candidate here could be Rafael Montero (RHP, NYM). A starter for essentially his entire minor league career (10 relief appearances in his first professional season; all 47 appearances since have been starts), he worked out of the bullpen some this spring. That was not intended to portend a role change this season, but now circumstances could force the Mets' hand. Unlike Familia and Black, Montero has never had an issue with his control (1.7 Ctl in 348.1 IP in the minors). He has a shiny 2.51 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 8.4 Dom over his minor league career. Though he had a solid spring (9 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K), he was sent to Triple-A Las Vegas to get additional seasoning.
Gonzalez Germen (RHP, NYM) might also receive consideration, but his struggles against left-handed batters (.274/.323/.429 with 14 HR in 601 PA in minors) would probably damage his chances. He had control issues in his 34.1 IP stint in the majors a year ago (4.2 Ctl), but has a 2.1 Ctl in 515.1 IP in the minors, so there is reason to believe he could improve in that area. The 15% SwK% and 8.7 Dom he showed in the big leagues in 2013 are intriguing.
If the team would prefer an in-house candidate with more big league experience than Familia, Black, Germen and Montero, then Carlos Torres (RHP, NYM) could get a look. He has tallied 181 career IP at the major league level and he’s coming off his best season (3.44 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 7.8 Dom, 1.8 Ctl, 11% SwK% and 115 BPV in 86 IP).
Manager Fredi Gonzalez has decided to begin the season with B.J. Upton (OF, ATL) batting second. One has to wonder how long it will last.
The 2013 season was one to forget for Upton has he posted career lows in batting average (.184), on-base average (.268), slugging percentage (.289), ct% (61%), Spd (97) and BPV (-28). He also struck out in 34% of his 446 PA. The 29-year-old struggled mightily in a very brief run in the #2 hole a year ago (4 hits and 9 strikeouts in 27 PA), but he has had success there in the past (.265/.342/.454 with 29 HR and 57 SB in 894 PA).
Unless Upton can drastically improve is ability to put the ball in play and reduce his strikeout rate, this arrangement figures to be short-lived.
Justin Upton (OF, ATL), who is currently batting fifth, is the most likely candidate to trade places in the batting order with the elder Upton. Justin thrived in the spot last year (.301/.384/.538 with 11 HR in 211 PA).
Andrelton Simmons (SS, ATL) is another potential candidate. He hit .325/.361/.429 with 1 HR and just 5 K in 84 PA when batting second last year. He owned a 91% ct% and fanned in just 8% of 658 PA in 2013. However, the .296 OBP is troublesome.
Rafael Furcal (2B/SS, MIA) was placed on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to March 21, with a strained left hamstring. It would appear that the team is going to platoon Jeff Baker (1B/3B/OF, MIA) and Derek Dietrich (2B/3B, MIA) at the position for the time being.
Baker has started just four games at second base over the past two seasons. Apparently the team has made the determination that he can still play passable defense at the position. The 32-year-old has a career .298/.353/.522 with 35 HR in 751 AB vs. LHP.
Though a left-handed hitter, Dietrich has actually fared pretty well vs. lefties throughout his career (.252/.325/.417 with 14 HR in 448 PA over the past three minor league seasons; .259/.286/.500 with 4 HR in 56 PA in majors).
Furcal will be eligible to come off the disabled list on April 5, but he won’t return at that time. The veteran only received 18 AB in Grapefruit League play and hasn’t appeared in a game since March 15, so he is expected to need a full rehab assignment prior to activation from the disabled list.
It will be interesting to see if they continue to platoon Dietrich and Baker while Furcal is out. As we’ve said before, it would make a lot of sense to platoon Baker with Garrett Jones (1B/OF, MIA) at first base as Jones has a measly .538 OPS in 528 career PA vs. left-handers.
If the first two games are any indication, it appears that manager Ryne Sandberg plans to bat Marlon Byrd (OF, PHI) cleanup vs. LHP and Ryan Howard (1B, PHI) cleanup vs. RHP. Prior to the game on April 1, Howard hadn’t started a game outside of the cleanup spot since June 29, 2008.
This makes one wonder whether or not Sandberg would dare to eventually sit Howard against some left-handed pitchers. Howard has gotten increasingly worse against southpaws over the past three seasons (2011: .224/.286/347 with 3 HR in 185 PA; 2012: .173/.226/.378 with 6 HR in 106 PA; 2013: .173/.218/.321 with 3 HR in 87 PA), so performance-wise, it would certainly be justifiable. However, Howard’s contract, which is set to pay him $25 million per year from 2014-2016 with a $23 million option for 2017, makes that a tough thing to do. At some point, it would seem that putting the best lineup on the field would overrule the financial side of things.
Using John Mayberry (1B/OF, PHI) against left-handers would make a lot of sense, should the team ever decide to go in that direction. Mayberry has crushed left-handed pitching to the tune of .276/.322/.530 with 25 HR and 7 SB in 453 career PA.
Darin Ruf (1B/OF, PHI) would be another potential option, once he’s healthy. Ruf has a .782 OPS and 5 HR in 99 PA vs. LHP (.356/.443/.659 with 25 HR in 400 minor league PA vs. LHP). The 27-year-old is expected to be out until late April with a strained left oblique.
Wilson Ramos (C, WAS) is expected to miss four-to-five weeks, though possibly up to eight weeks, after undergoing hamate bone surgery in his left hand. This is a significant blow, particularly considering that players who suffer that injury typically have reduced power for a while after returning to action. Jose Lobaton (C, WAS) will take over primary catcher duties and either Sandy León (C, WAS) or Jhonatan Solano (C, WAS) will move into a backup role.
Lobaton has a career .229/.310/.344 with 9 HR in 497 AB as a major leaguer. That’s obviously a far cry from the level of offensive production Ramos provided.
Leon and Solano both have a ceiling of backup catcher. Neither provides much of anything offensively (Leon: .237/.325/.325 with 16 HR in 1885 PA in minors; Solano: .247/.302/.334 with 22 HR in 1977 PA in minors).
The team may seek help from outside the organization.
There’s more where this came from to help you win your fantasy league. Check a BaseballHQ.com subscription, which gives you complete access to the site through the entire 2014 season.
More From PT Tomorrow
The Phillies are poised to finally end the Braves dominance of the division -- can they sustain that when the Braves are healthy in 2025?
Sep 21 2024 3:15am
Sep 21 2024 3:15am
Wilson had a great 2024 in the minors and looks to breakout with the A's in 2025.
Sep 20 2024 3:05am
Sep 20 2024 3:05am
Heston Kjerstad could be the beneficiary of Anthony Santander's pending free agency in BAL. Plus, hitters vying for 2025 playing time for TAM and TOR, and the effects of pending free agencies for BOS and NYY.
Sep 17 2024 3:10am
Sep 17 2024 3:10am
A look around the division with some questions for next year, including the Kansas City rotation and shortstop in Detroit.
Sep 13 2024 3:10am
Sep 13 2024 3:10am
MIL could have a new look infield, CHC still hasn't solved its problem at 3B, two situations to monitor in STL, coming full circle in CIN, and RF and 1B remain a problem in PIT.
Sep 12 2024 3:06am
Sep 12 2024 3:06am
