RESEARCH: Odds on a player being traded (update)
Jun 17 2021
A few years back, I wrote an article on the likelihood a player would get traded using MLBTradeRumors Trade Deadline Candidates rankings. MLBTradeRumors just released their first 2021 list, so I decided to double the historic sample set from two to four seasons to see if it still holds up. With this information, fantasy managers can target players who have the best chance to see a value upswing.
Looking back at the original article, I used the results from 2016 and 2017 to estimated the chances of being traded in 2018. Since then there have been 2.37 seasons. Ignoring the shortened 2020 season, I added the 2018 and 2019 predictions to the results. Even with the small sample, the new percentage chances didn’t change much. It’s nice to...
Almost!
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