Pitch Mix Changers, 1st vs. 2nd Half 2025
Feb 11 2026
Regression is our game's most powerful force.
Sage advice and a foundational pillar of our fanalytic toolbox, but the Speculator thrives on bending those rules. As we search for new ways to dissect 2025 returns, we'll use pitch-level data to identify starters who changed their pitch mix the most from 1st half to 2nd half last season. The idea is that with a new arsenal, they're a different pitcher than they were before, and more likely to repeat what we saw down the stretch in 2025.
We whipped up a "Change Score" metric in this space a few years ago to help quantify a pitcher's overall change in pitch mix. As a quick refresher, Change Score is the total difference in pitch usage across a pitcher's entire arsenal. For example, if someone...
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