SPECULATOR: Avoiding this year's Ketel Marte

We put a ton of effort into unearthing the next late-round "sleeper", but there's an underappreciated part of player evaluation that can be even more important: avoiding landmines, particularly early in drafts.

Ron Shandler's research in the 2020 Baseball Forecaster noted that the early rounds are littered with landmines. His key finding: in the first five rounds of drafts over the last two years, nearly half of our picks have been full-on "busts" (player returned a 4+ round loss vs. his draft round), while another 25% were a mere "loss" (a 1-3 round loss).

One of those landmines entering 2020 was Ketel Marte (2B, ARI). We actually panned Marte as an avoid in last year's version of this column—he came with several landmine-worthy traits...

Almost!

You’re just a few clicks away from accessing this feature and hundreds more throughout the year that have a singular goal in mind: Winning your league. Subscribe to BaseballHQ.com here!

Already a subscriber? Sign in here

More From Speculator

They weren't drafted early, but they've delivered. We'll name a speculative 1H All-Star Team and speculate on their second half.
Jul 2 2025 3:09am
They didn't help you much in the first half, but these rebound targets are primed for a summer surge.
Jun 25 2025 3:09am
The world-renowned (kind of) #BloomBoards make their way to the Speculator. Four of them to sift through!
Jun 18 2025 3:09am
Our annual exercise pitting current players on the age-old 10-step path to prospect stardom list.
Jun 11 2025 3:06am
Two-plus months into the season, we'll use QBaB to see who's making the best quality of contact, and speculate on their outlook going forward.
Jun 4 2025 3:09am

Tools