(*) SPECULATOR: Checking in on the rookie class

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Brent Hershey

Jun 28 2015 9:00am

(*) SPECULATOR: Checking in on the rookie class

Brent Hershey

Jun 28 2015

And what a class it has been so far. In previous years, this column took time around this part of the calendar to give some assessment of the handful of rookies who had received consistent playing time in the current season. This year, the amount of call-ups of potentially impactful players since Opening Day has been significant; the influx of young talent since even May 1 has seemingly been unprecedented. So we're going to tweak our exercise a bit.

This year, we're going to focus on most of the rookies called up between May 1 and June 15. That gives the most recent call-ups nearly two weeks of playing time—not nearly enough for any regular meaningful analysis here at BaseballHQ.com, but well within the "20%" that this column represents. We've come up with 14 players, nearly double what we've covered in the past. The takes will be shorter, but we'll end each with a … ahem, speculation … on where each player might be as far as fantasy value two years from now.

In chronological order:

Dilson Herrera (2B, NYM)
Promoted on May 2
Synopsis: After 59 mostly empty AB last year (.710 OPS), his 2015 stats have been worse. But his quality of contact has improved (HctX and xPX), and he's still just 21 years old. Given the Mets' other options at 2B, his future looks bright as a power/speed combo in the MIF.
In two years, he will be … a productive fantasy leaguer in the midst of a 20/20 season.

Blake Swihart (C, BOS)
Promoted on May 3
Synopsis: The track record for even offensively skilled backstops making their transition to the majors is not good. And it's taking a while here, too. But with very good bat-to-ball skills in the minors, and an impressive last 31 days (.297/.348/.406), there's hope. Contact authority, though, is a current issue: 50% GB%, and very little power when he does elevate the ball (xPX of 53).
In two years, he will be ... an unquestioned field leader of the new-era Red Sox, but one whose bat is only just coming into its own.

Billy Burns (OF, OAK)
Promoted on May 3
Synopsis: One of the biggest impact rookies on this list in terms of roto dollar value; he's earned $20+ so far. Sure, a lot of that is his wheels, with 15 SB, but a .322 BA plays a part, too. Though it's unlikely to last (.272 xBA), he does possess the requisite skills of a leadoff speedster: Hits the ball on the ground (48%); makes very good contact (85%), and has both the rotisserie speed skills (192 RSpd) and opportunity (28% SBO%) to continue. At 25 years old, there's not a lot of growth left, though.
In two years, he will be ... Juan Pierre without the elite ct%. Bushels of SB, and a BA that helps, but a more valuable fantasy player than real-life player.

Eddie Rosario (OF, MIN)
Promoted on May 5
Synopsis: He's been a pleasant surprise with 4 HR/17 RBI/5 SB so far, but an agressive plate approach (4% walk rate; 0.15 Eye to date) puts a bit of a damper on his potential future. His MLB speed skills (129 Spd; 19% SBO) have been a surprise, as big SB totals have not been part of his minor league history. In general, tough to see where an OF profile like this might fit into a Buxton and Sano-led Twins lineup.
In two years, he will be ... a streaky spot-starter/4th outfielder type who can provide some HR/SB numbers when in the lineup, but whose inconsistency robs him of playing time.

Noah Syndergaard (RHP, NYM)
Promoted on May 12
Synopsis: Peripherals have been all one could ask for through nine starts: 9.1 Dom/11% SwK; 1.7 Ctl/64% FpK; 5.3 Cmd; 141 BPV. A slightly inflated hit rate is keeping his ERA/WHIP a bit higher than expected, but his fastball is averaging 96.9 mph. This looks like Gerrit Cole's 2H in 2014.
In two years, he will be ... playing the role of Zack Greinke to Matt Harvey's Clayton Kershaw. In other words, an legit number one starter on just about any other team.

Maikel Franco (3B, PHI)
Promoted on May 16
Synopsis: With a scorching June (.378/8/21 through 6/26), Franco has done the almost unthinkable: thrust himself into the Rookie of the Year conversation in a class that includes Joc Pederson and Kris Bryant. While his hot streaks will be memorable, note that his 26% hr/f is unlikely to last, and his batted ball distribution is a very un-sluggerlike 52/17/30 (GB/LD/FB). But a consistently high contact rate (84%) adds yet another unique feature to the mix.
In two years, he will be ... half of one of the NL's best left sides of the infield (along with shortstop J.P. Crawford) on a team still struggling to contend. Look for a .280-25-90 season in 2017.

Lance McCullers (RHP, HOU)
Promoted on May 18
Synopsis: Coming into 2015, McCullers had exhibited control problems, which usually means teams take it slow, even with pitchers with big-league arm strength. Not so here—up after just six appearances, and he's logged a passable a 3.1 Ctl in eight MLB starts. When you log 52 Ks in 46 IP and throw in the mid-90s, much can be forgiven. A 49% GB% and .189 oppBA are additional testaments to his stuff, but we're still a bit wary of guys who clean up their control this quickly.
In two years, he will be ... a mid-rotation starter who racks up the strikeouts, but whose problem with free passes always surfaces at just the wrong time.

Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP, BOS)
Promoted on May 28
Synopsis: Starts have been either very good (three PQS-5s) or a disaster (two PQS-0 scores). With a 62% S%, his bullpen has not done him any favors, but a 51% FpK and 8% SwK give the sense that his 2.9 Cmd should be worse. With a 94-mph fastball from the left side and very good change-up, the elements are there for success.
In two years, he will be ... in the midst of his first 30-start MLB season after two years of riding the Pawtucket/Boston shuttle. Throwing more strikes and refining his command from the middle of the BOS rotation.

Chi Chi González (RHP, TEX)
Promoted on May 30
Synopsis: It's only five starts, but the end-result crowd has been thrilled. Two wins, 2.27 ERA, 1.09 WHIP. But the underlying peripherals are the opposite: more walks than strikeouts in 36 IP; FpK (57%) and SwK (6%) are below average, and his BPV is -9. He just doesn't look ready. Between Gonzalez and Nick Martinez, the Rangers are sporting two starters from the smoke-and-mirrors crowd. Makes one wonder just how viable the Rangers' June push has been.
In two years, he will be ... a durable, back-end starter for the club; one who can log 180 IP easily, but without any additional notable characteristics.

Joey Gallo (3B/OF, TEX)
Promoted on June 2
Synopsis: Another surprise promotion, this one brought about by an injury to Adrián Béltre. Though he had an intial spash and has 5 HR, Gallo's 53% ct% continues to be a point of concern; albeit one that is not a surprise. There's no doubt about his power skills (120 HctX; 204 xPX), but how low can his BA go before the big league club decides he needs more seasoning? A healthy 11% bb% helps matters in that regard.
In two years, he will be ... Pedro Álvarez, circa 2012: a gimme 30-HR guy that you hope can make enough contact to hit .250.

Carlos Correa (SS, HOU)
Promoted on June 8
Synopsis: It's been a fancy three weeks, with 4 HR and 4 SB already. Perhaps most importantly, he carries himself with a presence that says he belongs. And he does, with enough power, speed and all-around ability to impact the game—and to stuff stat sheets—for years to come.
In two years, he will be ... in the argument for the game's best shortstop, and making his case for another first-round fantasy selection in 2018.

Vincent Velasquez (RHP, HOU)
Promoted on June 9
Synopsis: No decisions yet in four starts, but striking out nearly a batter per inning and throwing heat (95 mph fastball). Lots of walks early on, but a 62% FpK rate points to the fact that he's getting ahead of hitters at a good rate. A "stuff" guy on a team that, outside of Dallas Kuechel, has too few.
In two years, he will be ... still tantilizing with bold strikeout numbers, but has not yet made the step forward with either control or being tough to hit.

Byron Buxton (OF, MIN)
Promoted on June 14
Synopsis: With 0 HR, 0 RBI and just 1 SB in 37 AB, his impact has been minimal. But most surprising is how much he's looked overmatched at the plate: 5% bb%; 59% ct%; just 47 HctX. Teeny sample, and now he's on the DL, likely until August. The injuries seem unrelated, but yet they keep piling up. He's still one of the most skilled all-around prospects in the game.
In two years, he will be ... still be making up for lost development time. His plate skills will still be intriguingly raw, but he'll be logging enough HR and SB to keep some fantasy players hooked.

Francisco Lindor (SS, CLE)
Promoted on June 15
Synopsis: No major holes yet; making good contact, though mostly hitting just singles and hitting the ball on the ground. There's some punch in his bat, but his power will take time to develop.
In two years, he will be ... coming off his first Gold Glove award, and generally recognized as one of the elite defenders in the game. His primary fantasy contributions are his batting average and a handful of SB.

The Speculator is not designed to make definitive assertions about the future; rather, it is designed solely to open readers' eyes to possibilities they may not have previously entertained, and in doing so, provide a different perspective on the future. Many of the possibilities will be of the "out on a limb" variety. All are founded on SOME element of fact. But none should be considered any more than 20% percentage plays.

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