SPECULATOR: Fighting recency bias—2019 hitters
Feb 27 2019
Regression is our game's most powerful force.
Once you display a skill, you own it.
We can't repeat these BaseballHQ-isms enough (though we try). Putting stock in a player's most recent performance to guide your decisions—often referred to as recency bias—is a natural tendency. Resist the urge. Fending off recency bias can give you a leg up on draft day.
Our marketplace tends to be littered with recency bias. Last year's breakouts are often fully priced, last year's duds are often discounted, and previous track records are often forgotten.
Since 2015, 206 hitters have seen their Average Draft Position (ADP) drop by 50+ picks in back-to-back seasons (to reduce injury bias, we're only including hitters with 300+ AB in both seasons).
- 122...
Almost!
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