SPECULATOR: Fighting recency bias—2019 hitters
Feb 27 2019
Regression is our game's most powerful force.
Once you display a skill, you own it.
We can't repeat these BaseballHQ-isms enough (though we try). Putting stock in a player's most recent performance to guide your decisions—often referred to as recency bias—is a natural tendency. Resist the urge. Fending off recency bias can give you a leg up on draft day.
Our marketplace tends to be littered with recency bias. Last year's breakouts are often fully priced, last year's duds are often discounted, and previous track records are often forgotten.
Since 2015, 206 hitters have seen their Average Draft Position (ADP) drop by 50+ picks in back-to-back seasons (to reduce injury bias, we're only including hitters with 300+ AB in both seasons).
- 122...
Almost!
You’re just a few clicks away from accessing this feature and hundreds more throughout the year that have a singular goal in mind: Winning your league. Subscribe to BaseballHQ.com here!
Already a subscriber? Sign in here
More From Speculator
How much can we trust certain pitchers entering uncharted workload territory in the second half?
Jul 15 2026 3:07am
Jul 15 2026 3:07am
Aroldis Chapman is likely on the move, but instead of speculating on where he might go, we'll dive into potential fill-ins.
Jul 8 2026 3:07am
Jul 8 2026 3:07am
A retrospective look at first-half all-stars taken late in drafts, including CHW duo Miguel Vargas and Sam Antonacci.
Jul 1 2026 3:06am
Jul 1 2026 3:06am
They didn't do much for us in the first half, but we're speculating on some big things the rest of the way.
Jun 24 2026 3:07am
Jun 24 2026 3:07am
The world-renowned (kind of) #BloomBoards make their way to the Speculator. Three of them to sift through!
Jun 17 2026 3:07am
Jun 17 2026 3:07am
