SPECULATOR: Recency bias rebounds, 2021 pitchers
Mar 10 2021
Last week in this space, we started a crusade against "recency bias" with hitters whose draft costs are overly influenced by 2020's shortened season.
This week, the journey continues with a trip to the mound. There are several pitchers who were being drafted as aces or top relievers this time last year, but for whatever reason—injury, a drop in previously-stable skills, or just plain old bad luck—the market has soured and their prices have sunk. A couple of simple filters for our list:
- Pitchers with a Top 300 ADP over the last 12 NFBC Draft Champions drafts
- Hitters with more than a $5 drop in "pick value" from 2020 to 2021.
- For details, see Mapping ADPs to Auction Value on Page 60 in the 2021 Baseball Forecaster.
Pitchers with...
Almost!
You’re just a few clicks away from accessing this feature and hundreds more throughout the year that have a singular goal in mind: Winning your league. Subscribe to BaseballHQ.com here!
Already a subscriber? Sign in here
More From Speculator
We continue the rookie class check-in outside the Top 25 in this year's HQ100.
Jul 29 2026 3:09am
Jul 29 2026 3:09am
We check in on the Top 25 preseason prospects who have made their MLB debut so far, and speculate on their outlooks moving forward.
Jul 22 2026 3:06am
Jul 22 2026 3:06am
How much can we trust certain pitchers entering uncharted workload territory in the second half?
Jul 15 2026 3:07am
Jul 15 2026 3:07am
Aroldis Chapman is likely on the move, but instead of speculating on where he might go, we'll dive into potential fill-ins.
Jul 8 2026 3:07am
Jul 8 2026 3:07am
A retrospective look at first-half all-stars taken late in drafts, including CHW duo Miguel Vargas and Sam Antonacci.
Jul 1 2026 3:06am
Jul 1 2026 3:06am
