Burnes, Wn. Contreras, Nootbaar, Kepler, D. Santana

Is Burnes overvalued? … Corbin Burnes (RHP, ARI) posted the seventh best ERA (2.92) among qualified MLB pitchers in 2024. He then inked a six-year, $210 million deal with the Diamondbacks in December. How are the underlying skills?

Year	IP	ERA/xERA	BB%/K%	xBB%	SwK	GB/LD/FB	H%/S%	HR/F	xWHIP	BPX
2021	167	2.43/2.56	5%/36%	6%	17.3%	48/21/30	33/75	6%	0.95	205
2022	202	2.94/2.88	6%/30%	8%	15.7%	47/19/33	27/75	14%	1.08	168
2023	194	3.39/3.78	8%/26%	8%	12.4%	44/22/34	26/72	13%	1.26	110
2024	194	2.92/3.62	6%/23%	7%	13.3%	48/17/34	28/79	12%	1.21	115

It’s a mixed bag:

• Though his K% is trending downward, SwK% bounced back a bit and hints at some K% upside (27% xK%). 
• His BB% and GB% rebounded from the 2023 dip. 
• The 2024 xERA highlights the downside if negative H%/S% regression hits without any...

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