Burnes, Wn. Contreras, Nootbaar, Kepler, D. Santana
Mar 12 2025
Is Burnes overvalued? … Corbin Burnes (RHP, ARI) posted the seventh best ERA (2.92) among qualified MLB pitchers in 2024. He then inked a six-year, $210 million deal with the Diamondbacks in December. How are the underlying skills?
| Year | IP | ERA/xERA | BB%/K% | xBB% | SwK | GB/LD/FB | H%/S% | HR/F | xWHIP | BPX |
| 2021 | 167 | 2.43/2.56 | 5%/36% | 6% | 17.3% | 48/21/30 | 33/75 | 6% | 0.95 | 205 |
| 2022 | 202 | 2.94/2.88 | 6%/30% | 8% | 15.7% | 47/19/33 | 27/75 | 14% | 1.08 | 168 |
| 2023 | 194 | 3.39/3.78 | 8%/26% | 8% | 12.4% | 44/22/34 | 26/72 | 13% | 1.26 | 110 |
| 2024 | 194 | 2.92/3.62 | 6%/23% | 7% | 13.3% | 48/17/34 | 28/79 | 12% | 1.21 | 115 |
It’s a mixed bag:
- Though his K% is trending downward, SwK% bounced back a bit and hints at some K% upside (27% xK%).
- His BB% and GB% rebounded from the 2023 dip.
- The 2024 xERA highlights the downside if negative H%/S% regression hits without any...
Almost!
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