FACTS/FLUKES: Arenado, Familia, Russell, W. Chen, N. Walker

Arenado a top-flight option ... An impressive host of BPIs led us to give Nolan Arenado (3B, COL) an "UP: .300 BA, 25 HR" speculation in 2015's Baseball Forecaster, and Arenado delivered with 42 bombs and a .287 BA. Arenado posted the highest 5x5 value of any NL 3B in 2015, which now poses the obvious question—can we trust him with a first-round pick?

Year   AB   BA    xBA  bb%  ct%  HctX  h%  GB/LD/FB   PX  xPX  hr/f  HR  BPV
====  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ====  ==  ========  ===  ===  ====  ==  ===
2013  486  .267  .276    5   85   101  30  43/24/34   92  103    7%  10   59
2014  432  .287  .300    5   87   127  30  38/21/42  142  134   11%  18  102
2015  616  .287  .307    5   82   130  29  34/22/44  172  149   19%  42 ...

Almost!

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