(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Blackmon, Segura, Alfaro, Price, Kintzler
Feb 28 2020
Blackmon still going strong, minus the speed... Charlie Blackmon (OF, COL) put together another fine season in 2019, hitting .314 with 32 home runs, and topping 110 runs for the fourth consecutive year. His stolen base totals continued to slide though, this time slipping all the way down to two. Is Blackmon still worth an early-round investment?
Year PA HR/xHR SB BA/xBA ct% G/L/F h% HctX/PX/xPX HR/F xHR/F Spd ==== === ====== == ========= === ======== == =========== ==== ===== === 2015 682 17/14 43 .287/.266 82 38/25/37 33 117/100/119 9% 8% 133 2016 641 29/23 17 .324/.295 82 34/28/38 35 115/127/129 16% 13% 104 2017 725 37/33 14 .331/.294 79 41/22/37 37 125/141/141 20% 17% 161 2018 696 29/25 12 .291/.277 79 43/23/33 33 104/119/97 18% 15% 121 2019 634 32/30 2 .314/.299 82 39/23/38 34 114/129/132 18% 17% 120
Most of Blackmon's skills are holding up exceptionally well:
- He consistently delivers a high hit rate, and a batting average that outperforms xBA, thanks to Coors Field, where he hit .379 in 2019, and where he owns a .349 career mark. Even if his contact rate goes back down to 2017-18 levels, he should still at least flirt with a .300 average.
- He continues to make quality contact, and he hit the ball in the air a little more in 2019, matching his career-high fly ball rate. All signs point to him finishing with about 30 homers again in 2020.
- Our Spd metric provides reason for optimism that he can still contribute on the bases, but his Sprint Speed (per Statcast) is trending in the wrong direction, as he ranked in the 48th percentile in 2019. This comes after he was in the 65th percentile in 2018, and 79th in 2017.
- Also adding to the concern regarding a stolen base rebound is his lack of recent success. Blackmon was successful on just 2 of 7 tries a season ago, and is just 28-for-47 (60%) over the past three seasons.
There is still plenty to like in Blackmon's profile, as he is one of the safest bets to hit for a high batting average, and he should rack up a ton of runs, as well as about 30 homers. The one drawback is that his speed is on the decline, and not likely to bounce back much at his age. The rest of Blackmon's skills are still going strong, making him a solid value at his NFBC ADP of 46. Just realize that selecting him makes a lot more sense (in straight drafts) if you have addressed speed in the first couple rounds.
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Segura primed for a rebound... Jean Segura (SS, PHI) is coming off a disappointing season in which he failed to hit .300 for the first time since 2015, and fell short of 20 steals for the first time over a full season, finishing with just 10. Is it a good idea to buy in expecting a bounce-back?
Year PA HR/xHR SB BA/xBA bb%/ct% G/L/F h% HctX/PX/xPX HR/F Spd/SBO ==== === ====== == ========= ======= ======== == =========== ==== ======= 2015 584 6/6 25 .257/.252 2/83 59/17/24 30 71/49/48 5% 128/24% 2016 694 20/26 33 .319/.296 6/84 53/19/28 35 101/103/93 14% 143/25% 2017 565 11/11 22 .300/.279 6/84 54/19/26 34 96/73/66 9% 120/20% 2018 632 10/13 20 .304/.272 5/88 51/19/29 33 84/63/59 7% 123/18% 2019 618 12/13 10 .280/.292 5/87 52/21/27 30 100/72/61 9% 112/9%
Other than SBO, there's no noticeable drop-off in the chart above:
- Segura pretty much maintained his contact rate gains, increased his HctX, and bumped his line drive rate up to a career high level. After outperforming xBA for four straight years, his hit rate slipped, and he fell short of the mark in 2019. He may not hit .300, but his batting average is likely to improve a bit in 2020.
- The power he displayed in 2016 looks like an aberration, as it has been very consistent in the three years since. He's a pretty safe bet for double-digit home runs, with the potential to get into the mid-teens.
- Segura still flashed above-average speed, but not quite up to his usual level, and he didn't run nearly as often. He hit the IL with a hamstring injury in April, and missed a few games with a heel injury in July, so it's possible the lingering effects of those maladies played a role in the lower SBO.
Segura had a down year in 2019, as his batting average and steals dropped off, but his skills didn't really take a hit. He'll be 30 before Opening Day, and maybe shouldn't be counted on to get back to 20 stolen bases, but he should reach the mid-teens in the category, and he's likely to improve upon his 2019 BA as well. Add in the fact that Segura is likely to add third base eligibility early in the season, and perhaps second base as well at some point, and he offers plenty of appeal at his current NFBC ADP of 191.
Alfaro offers pop at catcher... Jorge Alfaro (C, MIA) provided solid value at the catcher position in 2019, hitting .262 for the second straight year, while bumping the home run total up to 18. Should owners expect a similar performance from the 26-year-old in 2020?
Year PA HR/xHR SB BA/xBA ct% G/L/F h% HctX/PX/xPX HR/F xHR/F Spd ==== === ====== == ========= === ======== == =========== ==== ===== === 2017* 452 11/5 2 .239/.200 62% 53/16/31 36 61/92/68 22% 22% 108 2018 377 10/16 3 .262/.213 60% 48/23/29 41 83/113/102 17% 27% 131 2019 465 18/23 4 .262/.227 64% 53/22/25 37 97/98/102 25% 32% 87 *Includes MLEs
Alfaro offers some enticing power, but he still whiffs a lot:
- While some of his power metrics are just mediocre, he stands out in a few areas as well. His xHR/F suggests he has deserved more homers each of the past two seasons, and among catchers (Min. 100 batted balls), he ranked 4th in 2019 in both Hard Hit % and Barrels/BBE.
- He does hit the ball on the ground a lot, which caps the power upside, but has also played a role in the elevated hit rates.
- His contact rate improved in 2019, but he still has work to do in that area of his game. It's tough to bank on his hit rate staying as high as it has been to date, and xBA shows the BA floor is quite low.
- Alfaro brings a little speed to the table, an added bonus for a catcher. He won't make a major impact on the bases, but is a good bet to swipe three or four bags.
Alfaro has some warts, as he strikes out at a very high rate, and his power contributions are somewhat suppressed by all of the ground balls he hits. He makes quality contact, though, and a slight fly ball rate rebound could yield 20-plus home runs. If you can stomach the likely .240-.250 batting average, Alfaro makes for a decent power target at a scarce position in the middle rounds (NFBC ADP 210).
Count on strong skills, light workload for Price... David Price (LHP, LA) was cruising along with a 3.16 ERA through 17 starts in 2019. But then came an ugly four start stretch in which he allowed 20 earned runs in 17 innings, followed by an IL stint for a cyst on his wrist. Reportedly healthy following off-season surgery, and now pitching for a new team in a new league, where should expectations be set for Price's 2020 season?
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd Ball%/SwK Vel G/L/F H%/S% HR/F BPX ==== === ==== ==== === ==== === ========= ==== ======== ===== ==== === 2015 220 2.45 3.36 1.9 9.2 4.8 31%/12.3% 94.2 40/23/36 30/80 8% 157 2016 230 3.99 3.60 2.0 8.9 4.6 32%/12.1% 92.9 44/22/34 32/71 14% 154 2017 75 3.38 4.14 2.9 9.2 3.2 35%/12.8% 94.3 40/22/39 30/75 10% 126 2018 176 3.58 3.83 2.6 9.1 3.5 35%/10.2% 92.7 40/21/39 28/74 13% 129 2019 107 4.28 3.86 2.7 10.7 4.0 34%/11.8% 92.0 41/24/35 35/71 14% 152 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1H 19 72 3.36 3.53 1.9 10.2 5.5 34%/13.0% 92.0 44/22/34 33/73 11% 170
Price still owns some pretty intriguing skills:
- He doesn't have the velocity he used to have, but he got his SwK back up to 13% on his four-seamer. He also relied a little more on his change-up, a pitch that induced a 20% SwK, as he bumped up the usage on the pitch to a career-high 26%.
- He hasn't been quite as stingy with the walks the past few seasons, but still boasts an above average Ctl that is supported by a solid Ball%.
- His Hard% (per FanGraphs) was the highest of his career, and he's posted a 1.3 HR/9 each of the past two seasons. The vast majority of the damage was done just prior to his IL stint, as he allowed seven homers in 17 innings in the four starts mentioned above, and a 0.8 HR/9 in all of his other appearances.
Price isn't throwing as hard anymore, but he still had a stellar first half in 2019 before his season went off the rails. Given his recent injury history, the fact that he went 7 IP just once in 2019, and that he's now with the Dodgers, means he's not going to get near 200 IP again. Still, Price still has plenty to offer: the skills are strong, the Dodgers should manage his workload effectively, and he'll have another potent offense supporting him, which should help him pile up wins. His price is rising, as he's pick 164 in NFBC drafts since the trade (and 183 in all drafts), but that still leaves room for profit. Price is an attractive mid-round target.
Is Kintzler viable 9th inning option?... Brandon Kintzler (RHP, MIA) signed a one-year deal with the Marlins back in January, and is expected to handle the majority of save chances when the season kicks off. Does he have the skills to succeed in the role?
Year SV IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd FpK/SwK Vel G/L/F H%/S% HR/F BPV ==== == == ==== ==== === === === ======= ==== ======== ===== ==== === 2016 17 54 3.15 3.51 1.3 5.8 4.4 65%/7% 92.7 62/18/20 31/77 14% 109 2017 29 71 3.03 4.25 2.0 4.9 2.4 62%/6% 93.4 55/19/27 27/75 8% 67 2018 2 61 4.60 4.46 3.3 6.4 2.0 62%/7% 92.6 50/22/28 33/69 9% 55 2019 1 57 2.68 3.82 2.1 7.6 3.7 61%/8% 92.7 55/16/29 27/78 11% 114
These are not the skills of a reliable closer:
- Kintzler misses bats at a very low rate, so his margin for error is pretty thin, and he's not going to contribute many strikeouts for his owners.
- The low SwK and high ground ball rate have a lot to do with his heavy reliance on his sinker. He threw the pitch at least 80% of the time each year from 2016 to 2018 before dialing it down to 70% in 2019. He bumped up his change-up usage last season, a pitch that also induced a lot of ground balls (55%).
- He typically does a pretty good job of limiting the walks, but had a hiccup in 2018 before recovering in 2019. Meanwhile, his FpK has hovered around league average each of the past three seasons.
Kintzler is the owner of a pretty soft skill set, as he doesn't generate many swings and misses, and relies heavily on his defense turning balls in play into outs. That's not necessarily a recipe for success, considering he has been in the bottom 10 percentile in Hard Hit % each of the past two seasons. Kintzler doesn't give out many free passes, and keeps the ball in the park, thanks to his high ground ball rate. He'll have some value for as long as he's in the role, but don't expect it to last for too long, and if he does surprise, he'd be a strong candidate to be dealt at the deadline.
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