(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Gordon, Dickey, Aoki, J. Zimmermann, Byrd
Apr 19 2016
Gordon’s approach unaffected by injuries…For the first time since 2010, Alex Gordon (OF, KC) didn’t top 560 AB in 2015. Injuries played a role; he dealt with wrist issues in April, and missed a chunk of July/August with a groin injury that put him on the DL. It all combined to affect Gordon’s counting stats—can he recover those numbers?
Year AB BA xBA bb% ct% G/L/F HR PX xPX hr/f SB Spd SBO ==== === ==== ==== === === ======== == === === ==== == === === 2011 611 .303 .276 10 77 40/22/38 23 144 117 13% 17 86 14% 2012 642 .294 .272 10 78 42/25/33 14 116 102 8% 10 87 8% 2013 633 .265 .247 8 78 40/20/39 20 104 125 10% 11 123 8% 2014 563 .266 .260 10 78 43/19/38 19 123 118 11% 12 72 9% 2015 354 .271 .251 12 74 38/25/38 13 112 126 13% 2 78 6%
The injuries didn’t seem to changes Gordon’s approach:
- He still takes plenty of walks, but he did whiff more than usual in 2015. Still, he’s a good bet to deliver a good BA.
- Gordon’s HR total took a hit—mostly due to the lost playing time. His power remains above average, he still hits a good number of fly balls, and hr/f shows no signs of erosion.
- He’s not a speedster; below-average Spd (other than 2013) points out that he’s not much of an SB threat. He hasn’t run much the past few years, so he’s unlikely to return to the SB level of 2011.
With a return to his usual league-average contact skills, Gordon should produce a solid BA; with exemplary plate patience, he’s a big contributor in OBA leagues. He’s also a good bet to return to the 15-20 HR level. Assuming he remains healthy, look for Gordon to return to form.
Unlock all of our insights on your way to a fantasy title! See what our season-long coverage offers and then subscribe to BaseballHQ.com.
Dickey unlikely to repeat sub-4.00 ERA…Knuckleballers live forever—at least, that’s the way it seems. R.A. Dickey (RHP, TOR), now 41, posted sub-4.00 ERAs the past two years. In the last year of his contract with the Blue Jays, can Dickey continue to produce?
Year IP ERA xERA H% S% Ctl Dom Cmd FpK SwK G/L/F hr/f BPV ==== === ==== ==== == == === === === === ==== ======== ==== === 2011 209 3.28 3.89 29 76 2.3 5.8 2.5 63% 8% 51/16/33 8% 70 2012 234 2.73 3.22 28 79 2.1 8.9 4.3 62% 13% 46/20/34 11% 127 2013 225 4.21 4.11 27 71 2.8 7.1 2.5 61% 10% 40/19/40 13% 69 2014 216 3.71 4.01 27 74 3.1 7.2 2.3 63% 11% 42/20/38 11% 67 2015 214 3.91 4.54 26 71 2.6 5.3 2.1 59% 9% 42/21/37 10% 46 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 1H 108 5.02 4.89 28 67 3.5 5.3 1.5 59% 9% 43/23/35 13% 22 15 2H 107 2.78 4.21 25 75 1.6 5.2 3.3 59% 10% 41/19/40 7% 70
Don’t put much credence into Dickey’s recent performance:
- xERA shows that his stellar second half in 2015 can mostly be attributed to smoke and mirrors. Fortuitous H%, S%, and hr/f certainly helped out.
- Yes, Dickey’s Ctl improved greatly in the second half, but FpK says it’s not sustainable. In fact, the full-year drop in FpK indicates puts further Ctl decay into play.
- The big drop in Dom should correct a bit, since SwK remains above league-average. But the days of high strikeout numbers are long gone.
Dickey’s advanced age and steady decline in BPV tells you what you need to know. If he’s on the waiver wire in a shallow league, continue to avoid him and explore other options.
Aoki should rebound from poor 2015 2H…With the Giants in 2015, Norichika Aoki (OF, SEA) cranked it in the first half, hitting for average and stealing bases. But a leg injury shelved him in June, and his performance suffered. After signing a one-year deal with the Mariners, Aoki looks to recover that first half magic.
Year AB BA xBA bb% ct% h% G/L/F HR PX SB Spd SBO SB% ==== === ==== ==== === === == ======== == == == === === === 2012 520 .288 .294 8 89 31 55/17/28 10 91 30 131 27% 79% 2013 597 .286 .282 8 93 30 60/18/22 8 50 20 144 16% 63% 2014 491 .285 .292 8 90 32 62/21/17 1 53 17 136 16% 68% 2015 355 .287 .294 8 93 30 61/19/20 5 52 14 133 17% 74% ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 15 1H 262 .317 .296 8 94 33 62/21/17 2 40 12 129 18% 71% 15 2H 93 .204 .190 7 91 20 57/14/29 3 52 2 108 11% 100%
Aoki should be able to return to form:
- His plate skills remained the same post-injury; the poor BA in his limited second half can be attributed to low H%.
- Aoki makes fantastic contact, so he’s a good bet to hit for a high BA.
- He’s also got excellent speed, and runs enough to generate value in SBs. But since he doesn’t succeed at a high rate, there’s a cap on the stolen bases.
- Aoki mostly puts the ball on the ground with low PX, so don’t count on more than a smattering of HRs.
At 34, Aoki’s got a well-established profile. While there’s no guarantee he can double the hot start he put up in 2015, he can be counted on for a high BA and 15-20 SBs.
Zimmermann fills a rotation need…After spending the first seven years of his career in Washington, Jordan Zimmermann (RHP, DET) came over to the AL with a five-year contract with the Tigers. With 200+ IP in each of the past three years, Zimmermann looks to take his place as a reliable innings eater in Detroit.
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd H% S% FpK SwK G/L/F hr/f BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === === == == === === ======== ==== === 2011 161 3.18 3.75 1.7 6.9 4.0 30 74 63% 8% 39/19/42 6% 95 2012 196 2.94 3.78 2.0 7.0 3.6 30 78 69% 9% 43/23/33 9% 94 2013 213 3.25 3.50 1.7 6.8 4.0 28 73 67% 9% 48/21/31 10% 103 2014 200 2.66 3.22 1.3 8.2 6.3 31 77 71% 11% 40/24/36 6% 130 2015 202 3.66 3.82 1.7 7.3 4.2 31 74 67% 9% 42/22/36 11% 105
The change of venues shouldn’t significantly affect Zimmermann’s value:
- While still a favorable home venue, Comerica Park (-5% RH HR) is not as extreme a pitcher’s park as Nationals Park (-20% RH HR).
- Zimmermann has great FpK, but he couldn’t maintain 2014’s boost. Still, at this level, he’s a good bet to limit free passes.
- He also couldn’t maintain the 2014 SwK; a return to the 8+ Dom level probably isn’t in the cards.
2014 looks like the outlier for Zimmermann; don’t count on a return to sub-3.00 ERA or a boost in Dominance. Still, with AAA reliability and great control, Zimmermann looks like he’ll be a rotation stalwart for years to come.
Byrd in decline…Sometimes, in life, you get to reinvent yourself. For 39-year old Marlon Byrd (OF, CLE), that change came a few years ago. For most of his long career, he made plenty of contact and hit for a high BA; the last three years have been all about the power.
Year AB BA xBA bb% ct% h% G/L/F HctX HR PX xPX hr/f
==== === ==== ==== === === == ======== ==== == === === ====
2011 446 .276 .266 5 83 32 50/22/28 78 9 82 68 9%
2012 143 .245 .210 3 78 26 50/26/25 86 1 24 57 4%
2013 532 .291 .272 6 73 36 39/24/37 124 24 159 153 16%
2014 591 .264 .243 6 69 34 37/23/40 108 25 143 145 15%
2015 506 .247 .255 5 71 30 43/21/36 96 23 140 116 17%The change of approach occurred at the start of the 2013 season:
- Byrd became more of a free swinger, as the drop in ct% attests. His BA suffered as a result.
- He’s now doing more when he does make contact, hitting the ball harder. More balls in the air, more power, and a higher hr/f translates to more HR.
- But Byrd took a step back in 2015. While he had high PX, he didn’t hit the ball as hard as in 2013/14. xPX shows there’s some downside in his power.
As Byrd approaches 40, expect to see a continued slowdown. With his new free-swinging ways and signs of an imminent power decline, Byrd doesn’t generate as much interest as he did a couple of years ago.
More From Facts & Flukes
Is Cole Ragans a legitimate ace? We'll examine the skills and luck factors for Ragans, Josh Lowe, Gavin Williams, Matt Wallner, and Seranthony Domínguez.
Sep 5 2024 3:10am
Sep 5 2024 3:10am
Corbin Carroll has had a disappointing 2024 season, but at least his power has returned in the second half. How are things under the hood? Plus, Raisel Iglesias, Willy Adames, Ezequiel Tovar, and Carlos Estévez.
Sep 4 2024 3:03am
Sep 4 2024 3:03am
Jackson Merrill runs hot, David Bednar looks for better results, Spencer Steer cools off lately, Paul Sewald loses some skills, and Luis García increases his R$.
Sep 3 2024 3:03am
Sep 3 2024 3:03am
If Royce Lewis stayed healthy, he could put up massive numbers. We'll look at the skills and luck factors for Lewis, Bryan Woo, Jose Siri, Osvaldo Bido, and Dylan Carlson.
Aug 29 2024 3:03am
Aug 29 2024 3:03am
After belting 40 HR in 2022 and 46 HR in 2023, Pete Alonso has 27 HR through 556 PA. How are things under the hood? Plus, Zac Gallen, J.D. Martinez, Michael Kopech, and Joey Bart.
Aug 28 2024 3:03am
Aug 28 2024 3:03am
