FACTS/FLUKES: Nola, Swanson, Contreras, Smyly, Candelario

Nola hasn’t lived up to expectations … Aaron Nola (RHP, PHI) entered 2023 with a 37 ADP following a tremendous 2022 season, but fantasy owners have been disappointed thus far, as he has amassed a 4.59 ERA through 69 IP. What’s behind the slow start?

Year   IP   ERA  xERA  BB%   K% xBB%  SwK  GB/LD/FB  H%/S% HR/F   Vel 
====  ===  ====  ====  ===  === ====  ===  ========  ===== ====  ==== 
2019  202  3.87  3.79   9%  27%   7%  12%  50/21/30  30/74  17%  92.9
2020   71  3.28  2.97   8%  33%   6%  14%  50/23/28  30/75  20%  92.4
2021  181  4.63  3.48   5%  30%   5%  13%  41/19/41  33/62  14%  92.7
2022  205  3.25  2.94   4%  29%   5%  13%  44/20/37  30/69  10%  92.6
2023   69  4.59  4.08   5%  22%   6%  11%  39/21/41  28/64  14%  91.6

Almost!

You’re just a few clicks away from accessing this feature and hundreds more throughout the year that have a singular goal in mind: Winning your league. Subscribe to BaseballHQ.com here!

Already a subscriber? Sign in here

More From Facts & Flukes

A new batch of ALers, headlined by four-category stalwart Brent Rooker
Mar 19 2026 3:06am
As Bryce Harper enters his age-33 season, how are his skills holding up? Plus, Devin Williams, Luis Arraez, Matthew Liberatore, and Miguel Amaya.
Mar 18 2026 3:09am
Manny Machado offers steady value. Also: Zack Littell, Jung Ho Lee, Abner Uribe, and Nolan Arenado.
Mar 17 2026 3:06am
Cody Bellinger's power stroke was back on track at Yankee Stadium in 2025, and he's ready to do it again in 2026. Plus, Willson Contreras, Chase Meidroth, Ranger Suarez, and Drew Rasmussen.
Mar 16 2026 3:05am
Corey Seager had a down year in 2025; what can his skills tell us about his chances for a rebound in 2026? Plus, Kevin Gausman, Francisco Alvarez, Brandon Pfaadt, and Coby Mayo.
Mar 15 2026 3:05am

Tools