(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Ventura, Beltran, Reddick, R. Davis, Chirinos
Feb 21 2015
Ventura ready to take the next step? ... Yordano Ventura (RHP, KC) was busy taking the pitching world by storm over the season's first two months until an obscure elbow affliction cut into his effectiveness as the season wore on (4.2 Ctl, 4.08 xERA in 2H). The raw skills are there, but can he improve upon last year's success?
Year IP ERA xERA H% S% Ctl Dom Cmd SwK% G/L/F hr/f BPV ==== === ==== ==== == == === === === ==== ======== ==== === 2012+ 29 5.20 2.98 28 56 3.8 6.5 1.7 ---- -------- ---- 74 2013* 150 3.68 2.72 33 74 3.5 8.5 2.4 8% 49/15/36 18% 89 2014 183 3.20 3.78 30 77 3.4 7.8 2.3 11% 48/21/31 8% 75 +MLE inc. MLE
Remaining stagnant is more likely:
- Ventura couldn't reach our benchmarks in Ctl (2.8) or Cmd (2.5), and benefitted from a slightly friendly S%. xERA says be wary of regression.
- His Dom is his calling card, and he managed to maintain an above-average SwK% in the 2H (10%) despite elbow issues. Also, his average fastball velocity of 97-98 mph never wavered.
- GB fell (43%) and LD rose (23%) in 2H, something to keep an eye on over the season's first few months.
Like many young high-Dom pitchers, Ventura relied more on overpowering hitters than keeping them off-balance, another factor that may have contributed to the 2H LD spike as more hitters began sitting on his fastball. With less than 35 MLB starts to hang his hat on, we'd expect a mix of greatness and inconsistency rather than a major step forward. Sustained greatness could come sooner rather than later if his elbow is right and trust in his secondary stuff improves. Just don't overbid.
How will a healthy Beltran produce? ... Carlos Beltrán (OF, NYY) had been aging gracefully into his late-30s until a bone spur in his elbow hijacked his season. He ended with the lowest BPV (58) of his career. Supposedly healthy after off-season surgery, can he pick up where he left off in 2013?
Year AB BA xBA bb% ct% HctX h% G/L/F OPSvL PX hr/f BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === ==== == ======== ===== === ==== === 2010 220 .255 .271 12 82 132 28 42/19/39 1.009 109 10% 73 2011 520 .300 .298 12 83 154 33 40/21/39 .923 147 13% 105 2012 547 .269 .274 11 77 115 29 42/20/38 .867 142 20% 69 2013 554 .296 .282 6 84 129 32 35/24/41 .729 122 13% 75 2014 142 .218 .257 7 81 105 24 43/14/44 .606 124 10% 58
It will be an uphill battle:
- Beltran's HH% fell drastically, from 37% in '13 to 30% last season, working in tandem with a dip in LDs to produce a lower-than-average h%. Correction should yield a BA closer to the .260-.270 range.
- However, even in a "down" year, Beltran posted respectable HctX, PX and maintained hr/f%. Assuming health, a slight bump in those areas could allow him to vault his HR total back to the 20s.
- He hit more GBs than usual (especially in 2H—48% GB%), likely a product of his elbow issues. Yankee Stadium's short porch—where he hit 11 of his 15 bombs in 2014—should also make 20 HR attainable.
Perhaps the biggest question mark is how (or if) Beltran is able to recover his stroke versus southpaws. NYY brought in some ancillary bats in the outfield that will likely cut into his ABs, forcing him into a DH role more often. As such, his mixed league appeal becomes dicey. He'll probably come at a discount, but those hoping for a return to even his most recent salad days could be disappointed.
Can Reddick build on 2H? ... The OAK offense is virturally unrecognizable from last season, but Josh Reddick (OF, OAK) is one of the few returning cast members and will be counted on to rekindle the power that resulted in 32 HRs a mere two seasons ago. Two trips to the DL torpedoed his 1H, but a torrid 2H lured us back in.
Year AB BA xBA bb% ct% h% OPSvL G/L/F HR PX xPX hr/f ==== === ==== ==== === === == ===== ======== == === === ==== 2011* 445 .249 .268 9 79 32 .766 31/23/46 18 135 121 7% 2012 611 .242 .249 8 75 27 .751 29/21/50 32 141 131 14% 2013 385 .226 .240 11 78 26 .667 39/17/44 12 106 110 9% 2014 363 .264 .250 7 73 29 .533 33/18/50 12 103 115 9% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2014 - 2H 184 .299 .287 6 89 30 .690 28/17/54 8 144 143 9% *inc. MLE
Reddick returned to his roots, but added a new trick in the 2H:
- By roots, we mean a more aggressive style. Reddick's experimentation with patience and fewer FBs failed him in 2013. Once healthy, a return to his '12 profile yielded striking results in the power department.
- And he became a ct% freak in the 2H. This is a new skill, so it remains to be seen if he can maintain it, though.
- Hit rate saw a nice bump, but he'll have trouble maintaining it with a strong FB profile that also produces minimal LDs.
- He still can't hit lefties. All 12 of his HRs came against RHPs.
One could chalk up Reddick's second half to a sample size abberation, or see it as the result of a finally-healthy wrist and knee—injuries that plagued him over the past two seasons. Our suggestion? Play up his meager stats on draft day. There's the potential for him to be one of this season's more profitable end-game bids, as his extreme success vR makes him a very valuable platoon asset.
Davis will have a tough time repeating ... It's a well-known fact that you invest in Rajai Davis (OF, DET) for steals, and anything else he can provide is gravy. Last year, he gave owners a boost in the BA department as well, posting his highest BA since 2010. Is he finally becoming a dual-threat?
Year AB BA xBA OPS vL bb% ct% h% G/L/F PX SB Spd SBO% SB% ==== === ==== ==== ====== === === == ======== == == === ==== === 2011 320 .238 .238 .829 4 80 29 44/16/40 85 34 147 71% 76% 2012 447 .257 .249 .783 6 77 32 45/23/32 86 46 113 54% 78% 2013 331 .260 .236 .857 6 80 31 39/23/38 81 45 127 61% 88% 2014 461 .282 .269 .939 5 84 32 50/19/31 88 36 105 41% 77%
A repeat seems unlikely:
- Already a lefty-killer, a 41% h% in 2014 allowed OPS vL to surge to .939. While he typically posts higher h% versus southpaws, this is a feat he's unlikely to repeat.
- That said, his chances will improve if he can maintain ct% and continue hitting wormburners, which could lead to more infield singles.
- Spd isn't quite as juicy as it once was, with SBO% carrying an even heavier load.
At 34, it's not far-fetched to think his SB trajectory is permanently on its way down. His GB approach will be important to maintain, as he's never done himself any favors in the bb% category, and he'll once again need those balls to find holes to produce to repeat in BA. The additions of Yoenis Céspedes (OF, DET) and Anthony Gose (OF, DET) in the outfield will push Davis for PT, and likely means he'll be sitting against upper-tier RHP. Still, pay for the '14 SB total, just don't count on BA to join the party.
Opportunity knocks for Chirinos ... Journeyman Robinson Chirinos (C, TEX) was the last man standing in the TEX catching carousel, as injuries and ineffectiveness wiped out his competition (Geovany Soto and J.P. Arencibia, respectively). After showing inconsistent power in the minors, he surprised with 13 HRs and a 126 PX in just over 300 ABs. Was this a feat he can repeat?
Year AB BA xBA bb% ct% h% G/L/F PX xPX hr/f DOM/DIS ==== === ==== ==== === === == ======== === ==== ==== ======= 2010+ 319 .268 8 84 28 -------- 128 ---- 6% ------- 2011* 337 .208 .174 7 71 28 54/7/39 71 44 40%/60% 2012 2013* 293 .199 .194 9 75 25 24/19/57 77 175 0 38%/38% 2014 306 .239 .259 5 77 27 42/21/37 126 130 15% 35%/35% +MLE *Inc. MLE
Possible, but not probable:
- He showed promising pop as recently as 2010 (18 HR in 383 AB between AA and AAA), and while '13, '14 xPX suggests it might have staying power, he'll need a repeat of that impressive hr/f%.
- He's lacking plate discipline, showing less patience at the MLB level with middling ct%. A .260 BA is probably the high end of what he's capable of.
- DOM/DIS says consistency wasn't Chironos' strong suit, making his chances of being an everyday catcher unlikely.
The Rangers haven't given Chirinos much competition this spring, so he could very well end up behind the plate on Opening Day. There will be more RBI opportunities in a now-healed TEX lineup, but some issues vR (.682 OPS vR) could eventually force him onto a bad-side platoon. Not much upside at age 31, and merely and end-gamer in two-catcher leagues.
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