F/F SPOTLIGHT: Manuel Margot
May 20 2022
When a former top prospect establishes an MLB baseline as a solid regular, the market’s expectations of him lower accordingly.
Take Manuel Margot (RF/DH, TAM) and his 395 ADP in 2022 drafts. He once ranked among the game’s top 25 MLB prospects back in 2017. Scouts saw the potential for a .300 BA, 20 HR, and 40 SB at his peak. He was rated as a 9C prospect in April 2017 by our scouting writers.
But his production since that time has been good, not great:
Fast-forward to 2022, and the hyped version of Margot has come to fruition in 92 AB:
- .348 BA, 3 HR, 21 RBI, 5 SB, .912 OPS, $27
At first glance, his 38% hit rate is 10 points above its prior baseline, a variance that favors regression. But a closer look reveals several reasons to...
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