Skenes, Suzuki, O'Brien, France, Marsee

Skenes sees ERA rise … Paul Skenes (RHP, PIT) entered 2026 having posted a sub-2.00 ERA in each of his first two seasons (1.96 and 1.97, respectively), so it’s a bit jarring to see him with a 3.65 ERA through 121 IP. What is going on here?

Year	IP	ERA/xERA	BB%	K%	K-BB%	Ball%	SwK	Vel	GB/LD/FB	H%/S%	HR/F
2024	133	1.96/2.58	6%	33%	27%	33%	14.0%	98.9	50/17/30	30%/83%	10%
2025	187	1.97/3.10	5%	29%	24%	34%	14.2%	98.1	44/18/37	28%/82%	6%
2026	121	3.65/3.19	5%	30%	25%	35%	14.0%	96.9	39/19/40	32%/67%	8%

The skills aren’t that different from 2025, but negative S% regression has wreaked havoc:

• He continues to miss lots of bats, per SwK% and a 94th percentile K%.
• He has again done a terrific job limiting free passes, with an 89th percentile BB%. Ball% suggests there could be a little...

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