Spotlight: Spencer Torkelson

Welcome back to our F/F Spotlight series for 2025, where we will take a bi-weekly deep dive through mid-August on players whose stats have shown a transformation this season.

Our initial spotlight shines on Spencer Torkelson (1B, DET), a hitter who appears to be cashing in on his former top-overall-pick pedigree.

To say Torkelson is off to a better start than in prior years would be an understatement:

 

As of Date	BA	HR	RBI	OPS
May 6, 2023	.214	2	15	.585
May 6, 2024	.217	0	12	.584
May 6, 2025	.234	10	27	.889

 

Is this a temporary flash or a point in his development? Let’s dig deeper.

 

---

Take charge of your league in 2025 with a BaseballHQ.com subscription that unlocks articles like these all season long. Winning. Fantasy baseball. Insight.

---

 

Background

Torkelson was the 1st overall pick of the 2020 MLB draft. As a college bat out of Arizona State, he was regarded as a low-risk bet to provide upper-tier power and production, but it likely would come with a marginal batting average given his moderately high levels of swing and miss.

Minor League History

Torkelson made quick work of the minors in his 2021 debut season, posting this consolidated stat line across three levels from High-A to Triple-A:

• .267 BA, 30 HR, 91 RBI, 5 SB, .935 OPS in 530 PA

He got an early look with the Tigers during his 2022 rookie season, was demoted to Triple-A after he struggled, and got called up again that September.

First Three MLB Seasons: A Rollercoaster

Torkelson was a model of inconsistency during his first three seasons in the majors. He had a rough MLB debut in 2022, a 30-HR season in 2023, and a disappointing campaign in 2024:

 

Year	BA	HR	RBI	OPS
2022	.203	8	28	.604
2023	.233	31	94	.758
2024	.219	10	37	.669

 

First Three MLB Seasons: Batted Ball Quality

Like his up-and-down results, Torkelson’s batted ball quality also was hit and miss heading into this season:

 

Year	EV	LA	Brl%
2022	90.5	15.0	8.4%
2023	91.8	17.1	14.1%
2024	89.0	20.2	6.7%

 

This data tells us that he can hit the ball hard, as shown by two seasons of 90.0+ mph exit velocity. But as his launch angle increased again in 2024, he couldn’t convert that uppercut into homers because of the nosedive in his exit velocity.

Why is average exit velocity so important? This five-year study shows how BA, HR, RBI, and other stats and skills improve as exit velocity increases:

 

 

Torkelson’s launch angle was steadily increasing heading into the 2025 season. That’s a good thing when you’re hitting the ball hard. But when your exit velocity goes from good to mediocre, the end-result is a lot of soft contact in the air, which is neither conducive for power nor batting average.

First Three MLB Seasons: Plate Discipline

Our research on Chase Rate has told us that chasing less does not result in striking out less. Rather, it enables batters to save their swings for pitches in the zone that they can hit hard, and it also is a driver of a hitter's walk rate.

Torkelson always has been a hitter that does not chase much:

 

Year	Chase Rate
2022	24.7%
2023	23.6%
2024	23.2%

 

This level of chase ranks in the game’s 75th percentile:

 

 

Chase Rate is important because of its close link to batted ball quality.

Batters with the lowest levels of chase tend to have the highest:

• Average Exit Velocity (EV)
• Launch Angle (LA)

• Barrel Rate (Brl%)

   

Chase Rate	EV	LA	Brl%
<16.0%	89.0	13.2	8.0%
16.0% to 17.9%	88.8	13.0	7.0%
18.0% to 19.9%	88.7	13.7	7.3%
20.0% to 21.9%	88.6	12.9	7.1%
22.0% to 23.9%	88.6	13.0	6.9%
24.0% to 25.9%	88.5	12.7	6.9%
26.0% to 27.9%	88.5	12.3	6.9%
28.0% to 29.9%	88.6	12.5	7.1%
30.0% to 31.9%	88.4	12.2	6.9%
32.0% to 33.9%	88.1	11.9	6.3%
34.0% to 35.9%	88.0	11.9	5.9%
36.0% to 37.9%	88.0	11.9	6.0%
38.0% to 39.9%	87.3	11.8	5.6%
40.0% to 41.9%	87.1	11.3	4.9%
42.0% to 43.9%	88.2	11.4	6.5%
>44.0%	87.7	11.5	6.3%

 

Now that we understand the player Torkelson was heading into the 2025 season, let’s take a closer look at his resurgence so far in 2025.

2025: Batting Stance

The driving force behind Torkelson's fast start can be traced back to some significant changes in his stance and positioning at the plate (courtesy of MLB.com):

 

 

Torkelson has changed his setup at the plate dramatically; he went back to the stance that worked for him in college:

• He has moved back over 4” in the batter’s box
• He has backed away from the plate more
• He has a much more narrow batting stance now
   

2025: Results by Pitch Type

During Torkelson’s 30-HR breakout in 2023, he feasted on fastballs and breaking pitches. His slugging percentage against fastballs dropped over 100 points in 2024 due to a loss of 3.0 mph of EV against them.

So far in 2025, Torkelson’s extra-base output against fastballs and breaking pitches has been the best of his career (courtesy of Baseball Savant):

 

 

The pitch he has struggled against during his entire career has been change-ups. While he has a .174 BA against them in 2025, he already has hit 2 HR against that pitch. Torkelson had 3 HR against change-ups during his prior three seasons combined.

2025: Plate Discipline

We know that Torkelson has not chased much during his career. His current 22.7% Chase Rate is the best of his career and marks his third straight season of less chasing:

 

Year	Chase Rate
2022	24.7%
2023	23.6%
2024	23.2%
2025	22.7%

 

Torkelson’s low level of chase finally has resulted in a big spike in his walk rate:

 

Year	bb%
2022	9%
2023	9%
2024	8%
2025	13%

 

What about Torkelson’s contact rate? Turns out that he has not opened up his swing any more than he has in the past, as he continues to maintain a near-70% ct%:

 

Year	ct%
2022	72%
2023	71%
2024	69%
2025	69%

 

As is the case with a pitcher’s swinging strike rate and its correlation with their strikeout rate, the swinging strike rate of batters is a predictive driver of their ability to make contact.

Torkelson’s current 10.3% SwK% is tied for the lowest mark in his career, which suggests his contact rate should remain around its current level:

 

Year	SwK%
2022	10.5%
2023	10.3%
2024	11.1%
2025	10.3%

2025: Batting Average Hope?

Torkelson’s batting average has been a drain on his fantasy managers throughout his career, and his expected batting average level has not offered much hope for anything better. At least until 2025, that is:

 

Year	BA	xBA
2022	.203	.215
2023	.233	.245
2024	.219	.211
2025	.233	.281

 

He will find it hard to reach the level of his current xBA, but his .252 xBA as calculated at Baseball Savant reflects his Statcast batted ball components and is a realistic level for him to reach in 2025.

2025: Batted Ball Quality

 

Year	EV	LA	Brl%
2022	90.5	15.0	8.4%
2023	91.8	17.1	14.1%
2024	89.0	20.2	6.7%
2025	90.9	20.2	16.3%

 

Remember all the soft contact Torkelson hit in the air last season? Well, he has added 2 mph of average exit velocity while maintaining the steep uppercut in his swing. That combination has enabled him to barrel the ball at the highest rate of his career.

2025: Count-Level Analytics

When you watch one of your players when they are slumping, it seems that they always find themselves behind in the count.

Turns out that the frequency of at-bats that Torkelson falls behind in the count have dropped significantly from his prior baseline:

 

Count	Type	2022	2023	2024	2025
1-0	Ahead	6%	6%	8%	6%
2-0	Ahead	3%	3%	2%	1%
2-1	Ahead	6%	4%	4%	3%
3-0	Ahead	1%	0%	0%	0%
3-1	Ahead	2%	2%	1%	4%
3-2	Ahead	12%	14%	15%	13%
Ahead Total		30%	30%	30%	27%
0-1	Behind	9%	8%	9%	5%
0-2	Behind	11%	10%	8%	8%
1-2	Behind	19%	16%	18%	18%
Behind Total		39%	34%	35%	30%
0-0	Even	10%	12%	10%	16%
1-1	Even	9%	8%	8%	11%
2-2	Even	13%	16%	18%	16%
Even Total		32%	36%	35%	43%

 

Torkelson is finding himself in many more even counts and much fewer pitcher counts so far in 2025. That improved level of count management is giving him better pitches to hit, and he’s making the most of it.

Further, Torkelson is swinging at first pitches at a 32.7% rate, which is over seven points higher than his first-pitch swing rate from 2024. It’s another indication of his improved pitch recognition and aggressiveness to manage counts.

2025: Clutch Hitting

For the first time in his career, Torkelson is thriving when hitting with runners in scoring position, including a doubling of his slugging percentage from that scenario last season:

 

	With Runners in Scoring Position
Year	BA	OBP	Slg	OPS
2022	.173	.242	.309	.550
2023	.208	.288	.371	.659
2024	.187	.265	.275	.539
2025	.244	.353	.537	.890

 

Conclusions

There’s a lot to like in Torkelson’s quick start to the 2025 season:

• He’s making much more regular hard contact
• He has maintained a steep uppercut in his swing, so most of that hard contact has been in the air
• He’s maintaining a very low Chase Rate
• He’s hitting in much more favorable counts due to improved pitch recognition
• He’s showing significant power against fastballs and breaking pitches
• He has increased his Slg on off-speed pitches by 350+ points
• He's feasting with runners in scoring position

At age 25, Torkelson is starting to enter his prime years. Consistency is the next hurdle for him to overcome. MLB pitchers already have started to adjust, throwing him more breaking pitches and less fastballs. Fortunately, he’s showing power against multiple pitch types, so he’s got the tools to do so. 

In spite of his consistency concerns, this is a batter with the tools to produce multiple seasons of .250-.260 BA, 30-40 HR, and 100+ RBI.

 

More From Facts & Flukes