Nearly 15 years ago, our research showed that there are significant skill differences among pitchers when throwing with the bases empty compared to with runners on base.
This trend continues to hold true. Pitchers keep producing above-average skills with the bases empty, while their skills when pitching with runners on base have been subpar.
We can visualize this impact by comparing the skills of pitchers in those two situations over the last 14 seasons with the average overall skills posted by starting pitchers during the same period:

Let's take a look at some significant early none on/runners on splits so far in 2026 by focusing on the guys with the widest none on/runners on skill splits (min 20 IP).
These SP are extremely more skilled...
Almost!
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