STARTERS: BPV none on/runners on, 2022

Our research a decade ago showed that there are significant skill differences among pitchers when throwing with the bases empty compared to with runners on base.

This trend continues to hold true. Pitchers have produced a 100+ BPV in five straight seasons with the bases empty, while their skills when pitching with runners on base have been 30% lower.

We can visualize this impact by comparing the skills of pitchers in those two situations over the last 9+ seasons with the average overall skills posted by starting pitchers during the same period:

Let's take a look at some significant early none on/runners on splits so far in 2022 by focusing on those guys with the widest none on/runners on skills splits (min 20 IP none on/runners on):

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Jack Flaherty's inconsistency can be traced to some deep struggles after he goes through a lineup once during a game.
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Bryce Elder's marginal overall skills are hiding some impactful components when he pitches with the bases empty.
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Max Meyer has looked like two different pitchers during his home and road starts.
Jun 14 2025 3:05am
Sandy Alcantara's rough post-injury stats have been driven by some deep struggles against lefty bats.
Jun 7 2025 3:05am
Ben Brown's ugly surface stats in May hid some excellent underlying skills.
May 31 2025 3:09am

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