(*) STARTERS: End-gamers 2014
Mar 16 2014
The end game is where you can earn the most profit from your starting rotation, since those are the guys you pick up at the end of your drafts or for a token $1 bid.
Managing the end game isn't easy though. Not all guys are worth a $1 bid. Some have too much downside. Others don't have enough upside to justify having them on your roster.
An end-gamer in one league can be a sleeper or breakout target in another, so we'll provide you with a deep cross-section of players to focus on.
As a reminder, check out our scouting coverage for info on SP prospects worth targeting late in your drafts.
Let's start by looking at 2013 vs. 2012 skill surgers, 2013 first half to second half skill surgers, and guys who have shown strong skills in certain situations.
Click on the links below to jump to the data that interests you the most, or scroll down beneath the data to see writeups on a large group of SP in each league who warrant attention in your end game, especially in deep leagues.
2013 vs. 2012
- BPV
- Fastball velocity
- Swinging Strike rate (SwK%)
2013 - 2H vs. 1H
- BPV
- Fastball velocity
- Swinging Strike rate (SwK%)
2013 - One Split Away
- BPV LH/RH
- BPV None On/Runners On
- BPV Home/Road
Here are the SP whose BPV grew the most between 2012 and 2013:
-
Name League BPV 2012 BPV 2013 Diff ================== ====== ======== ======== ==== Ross, Tyson NL 10 116 +105 Keuchel, Dallas AL -9 88 + 97 Jimenez, Ubaldo AL 17 88 + 71 Danks, John AL 6 76 + 71 Richards, Garrett AL 6 71 + 65 Harvey, Matt NL 101 157 + 56 Deduno, Samuel AL -10 46 + 56 Harang, Aaron AL 20 74 + 54 Masterson, Justin AL 55 101 + 46 Chacin, Jhoulys NL 10 53 + 44 Darvish, Yu AL 98 140 + 42 Chatwood, Tyler NL 6 43 + 37 Quintana, Jose AL 49 85 + 37 Porcello, Rick AL 69 104 + 36 Buchholz, Clay AL 54 89 + 35 Liriano, Francisco NL 63 97 + 34 Minor, Mike NL 69 102 + 33 Delgado, Randall NL 46 79 + 33 Stults, Eric NL 44 75 + 31 Santana, Ervin AL 59 89 + 30 Sanchez, Anibal AL 103 131 + 28 Nolasco, Ricky AL 71 98 + 27 Iwakuma, Hisashi AL 90 117 + 26 *min 40 IP each season
These guys posted the largest four-seam fastball velocity increases between 2012 and 2013:
-
Four-Seam Fastball Velocity - 2013 vs. 2012*
Name League FAv 2012 FAv 2013 Diff ================== ====== ======== ======== ==== Morton, Charlie NL 88.5 93.4 +4.9 Eovaldi, Nathan NL 94.1 96.1 +2.0 Ross, Tyson NL 92.3 94.0 +1.7 Capuano, Chris NL 86.7 88.4 +1.7 Bailey, Homer NL 92.4 94.1 +1.7 Sanchez, Anibal AL 91.5 92.8 +1.3 Wainwright, Adam NL 89.9 91.2 +1.3 Sale, Chris AL 91.3 92.6 +1.3 Corbin, Patrick NL 90.5 91.8 +1.3 Pettitte, Andy AL 87.8 89.0 +1.2 Keuchel, Dallas AL 88.1 89.1 +1.0 Quintana, Jose AL 90.2 91.2 +1.0 Kelly, Joe NL 92.7 93.7 +1.0 Leake, Mike NL 89.5 90.4 +0.9 Kennedy, Ian NL 89.2 90.1 +0.9 Harvey, Matt NL 94.6 95.4 +0.8 Holland, Derek AL 92.6 93.4 +0.8 Hefner, Jeremy NL 90.1 90.9 +0.8 Hudson, Tim NL 89.0 89.8 +0.8 Cobb, Alex AL 90.0 90.7 +0.7 Arroyo, Bronson NL 86.3 87.0 +0.7 Santana, Ervin AL 91.7 92.3 +0.6 Happ, J.A. AL 90.5 91.1 +0.6 Alvarez, Henderson NL 92.8 93.3 +0.5 Chen, Wei-Yin AL 91.0 91.5 +0.5 Norris, Bud AL 91.9 92.4 +0.5 Cahill, Trevor NL 89.7 90.2 +0.5 Turner, Jacob NL 91.1 91.6 +0.5 Richard, Clayton NL 90.6 91.1 +0.5 Arrieta, Jake NL 93.2 93.7 +0.5 *min 40 IP each season
These SP saw their SwK% increase the most between 2012 and 2013:
-
Swinging Strike Rate - 2013 vs. 2012*
Name League SwK% 2012 SwK% 2013 Diff ================== ====== ========= ========= ==== Ross, Tyson NL 6% 13% +6% Keuchel, Dallas AL 6% 9% +3% Sanchez, Anibal AL 10% 12% +3% Corbin, Patrick NL 8% 11% +3% Cueto, Johnny NL 9% 11% +2% Beckett, Josh NL 9% 11% +2% Hudson, Tim NL 7% 9% +2% Bumgarner, Madison NL 9% 11% +2% Nolasco, Ricky AL 9% 11% +2% Greinke, Zack NL 9% 10% +2% Holland, Derek AL 8% 10% +2% Minor, Mike NL 8% 10% +2% Danks, John AL 7% 9% +2% Jimenez, Ubaldo AL 7% 9% +2% Santana, Ervin AL 8% 10% +2% Colon, Bartolo AL 5% 6% +2% Cobb, Alex AL 8% 9% +2% *min 40 IP each season
Let's move on to looking at 2013 second half surgers.
Here are the SP whose overall skills surged the most between the first and second halves of 2013:
-
Name League BPV 1H BPV 2H Diff ================== ====== ====== ====== ==== Jimenez, Ubaldo AL 48 134 + 87 Niese, Jon NL 32 108 + 76 Fernandez, Jose NL 88 163 + 75 Bedard, Erik AL 27 93 + 66 Guthrie, Jeremy AL 12 73 + 61 Kazmir, Scott AL 86 144 + 59 Ryu, Hyun-Jin NL 75 129 + 54 Cole, Gerrit NL 72 126 + 54 Dickey, R.A. AL 47 99 + 53 Chen, Wei-Yin AL 36 86 + 50 Lee, Cliff NL 131 179 + 48 Medlen, Kris NL 75 123 + 47 Tillman, Chris AL 56 102 + 47 Archer, Chris AL 52 99 + 47 Greinke, Zack NL 73 116 + 43 Arroyo, Bronson NL 67 104 + 37 Strasburg, Stephen NL 109 147 + 37 Peralta, Wily NL 34 66 + 32 Burnett, A.J. NL 111 143 + 31 Vargas, Jason AL 50 78 + 28 Kershaw, Clayton NL 119 147 + 27 Hamels, Cole NL 104 129 + 26 *min 40 IP each half
These guys saw their four-seam fastball velocities increase the most between the 1H and 2H of 2013:
-
Four-Seam Fastball Velocity 2013 - 2H vs. 1H*
Name League FAv 1H FAv 2H Diff ================== ====== ====== ====== ==== Sanchez, Anibal AL 91.9 93.8 +1.9 Greinke, Zack NL 91.1 92.3 +1.2 Sabathia, C.C. AL 90.9 92.1 +1.2 Chen, Wei-Yin AL 90.8 91.9 +1.1 Bumgarner, Madison NL 90.8 91.9 +1.1 Lester, Jon AL 91.9 93.0 +1.1 Cashner, Andrew NL 94.2 95.3 +1.1 Kuroda, Hiroki AL 90.3 91.3 +1.0 Lynn, Lance NL 92.1 93.1 +1.0 Cobb, Alex AL 90.3 91.3 +1.0 Kluber, Corey AL 92.8 93.8 +1.0 Price, David AL 92.8 93.7 +0.9 Verlander, Justin AL 93.6 94.5 +0.9 Capuano, Chris NL 88.1 89.0 +0.9 Hellickson, Jeremy AL 90.1 91.0 +0.9 Sale, Chris AL 92.4 93.3 +0.9 Bailey, Homer NL 93.7 94.6 +0.9 Minor, Mike NL 90.1 90.9 +0.8 McAllister, Zach AL 90.8 91.6 +0.8 Gee, Dillon NL 88.8 89.6 +0.8 Danks, John AL 88.9 89.7 +0.8 Kazmir, Scott AL 91.8 92.5 +0.7 Latos, Mat NL 92.2 92.9 +0.7 Kennedy, Ian NL 89.9 90.6 +0.7 Peavy, Jake AL 89.9 90.6 +0.7 Garza, Matt NL 92.8 93.4 +0.6 Correia, Kevin AL 90.1 90.7 +0.6 Ogando, Alexi AL 93.1 93.7 +0.6 Chatwood, Tyler NL 92.6 93.2 +0.6 Stults, Eric NL 86.7 87.3 +0.6 Harvey, Matt NL 95.2 95.8 +0.6 Volquez, Edinson NL 92.2 92.8 +0.6 Niese, Jon NL 89.9 90.4 +0.5 Ryu, Hyun-Jin NL 90.5 91.0 +0.5 Medlen, Kris NL 88.7 89.2 +0.5 Arroyo, Bronson NL 86.9 87.4 +0.5 Pelfrey, Mike AL 92.0 92.5 +0.5 Saunders, Joe AL 89.5 90.0 +0.5 Locke, Jeff NL 90.1 90.6 +0.5 *min 40 IP each half
The following SP induced a lot more swinging strikes in the second half of 2013 than in the first half:
-
Swinging Strike Rate 2013 - 2H vs. 1H*
Name League SwK% 1H SwK% 2H Diff ================== ====== ======= ======= ==== Deduno, Samuel AL 6% 10% +4% Medlen, Kris NL 10% 13% +4% Fernandez, Jose NL 9% 12% +3% Tillman, Chris AL 7% 10% +3% Cashner, Andrew NL 7% 10% +3% Kazmir, Scott AL 9% 12% +3% Chen, Wei-Yin AL 6% 9% +3% Locke, Jeff NL 7% 10% +3% Nicasio, Juan NL 6% 9% +3% Cole, Gerrit NL 8% 10% +2% Koehler, Tom NL 6% 8% +2% Miley, Wade NL 7% 9% +2% Shields, James AL 9% 11% +2% De la Rosa, Jorge NL 9% 10% +2% Cobb, Alex AL 9% 10% +2% Jimenez, Ubaldo AL 8% 10% +2% Lee, Cliff NL 9% 10% +2% Garza, Matt NL 9% 11% +2% Lynn, Lance NL 9% 11% +2% Greinke, Zack NL 10% 11% +2% Estrada, Marco NL 10% 12% +2% Chatwood, Tyler NL 6% 8% +2% Keuchel, Dallas AL 8% 10% +2% Griffin, A.J. AL 8% 10% +2% *min 40 IP each half
Finally, let's find some guys who might be one split away from making a big impact.
These SP had the widest LH/RH BPV splits:
-
Name League Throws BPV vs. LH BPV vs. RH Diff ================== ====== ====== ========== ========== ==== Bumgarner, Madison NL LHP 204 81 -123 Saunders, Joe AL LHP 130 15 -115 Kershaw, Clayton NL LHP 220 108 -112 Sabathia, C.C. AL LHP 159 57 -101 Corbin, Patrick NL LHP 176 78 - 98 Maholm, Paul NL LHP 134 41 - 93 Jimenez, Ubaldo AL RHP 125 42 - 82 Gonzalez, Gio NL LHP 147 67 - 79 Wilson, C.J. AL LHP 126 50 - 76 Vogelsong, Ryan NL RHP 74 0 - 74 Lester, Jon AL LHP 138 65 - 73 Doubront, Felix AL LHP 108 37 - 70 Pettitte, Andy AL LHP 120 56 - 64 Minor, Mike NL LHP 145 88 - 57 Moore, Matt AL LHP 87 31 - 56 Miley, Wade NL LHP 110 58 - 52 ---------------------------------------------------------------- Lynn, Lance NL RHP 12 144 +132 Lyles, Jordan NL RHP -9 118 +127 Masterson, Justin AL RHP 54 176 +122 Rogers, Esmil AL RHP 7 119 +113 Wheeler, Zack NL RHP -17 94 +111 Porcello, Rick AL RHP 53 155 +102 McAllister, Zach AL RHP 2 103 +101 Eovaldi, Nathan NL RHP -9 91 +100 Burnett, A.J. NL RHP 72 171 + 99 Strasburg, Stephen NL RHP 73 167 + 94 Hammel, Jason AL RHP 10 93 + 82 Swarzak, Anthony AL RHP 41 123 + 82 Medlen, Kris NL RHP 57 135 + 77 Morton, Charlie NL RHP 39 116 + 77 Marquis, Jason NL RHP -54 22 + 76 Davis, Wade AL RHP 14 89 + 75 Maurer, Brandon AL RHP 42 117 + 75 *min 40 IP vs. LH/RH
Here were the SP with the widest skill splits when pitching with the bases empty vs. runners on base in 2013:
-
BPV 2013 - None On/Runners On*
Name League BPV None On BPV Runners On Diff ================== ====== =========== ============== ==== Capuano, Chris NL 154 10 -145 Harrell, Lucas AL 32 -75 -107 Collmenter, Josh NL 122 17 -104 Santana, Ervin AL 123 32 - 91 Porcello, Rick AL 141 54 - 86 Estrada, Marco NL 141 56 - 85 Nolasco, Ricky NL 132 48 - 84 Hernandez, Roberto AL 127 45 - 82 Pelfrey, Mike AL 82 3 - 79 Jackson, Edwin NL 107 30 - 78 Cobb, Alex AL 137 60 - 76 Santiago, Hector AL 81 6 - 75 Lackey, John AL 138 69 - 69 Sanchez, Anibal AL 159 92 - 67 Chacin, Jhoulys NL 83 16 - 67 Kennedy, Ian NL 93 27 - 66 Westbrook, Jake NL 25 -41 - 66 Nicasio, Juan NL 75 -9 - 66 Swarzak, Anthony AL 112 47 - 65 Bedard, Erik AL 74 9 - 65 Vogelsong, Ryan NL 62 -1 - 64 Minor, Mike NL 126 63 - 62 Alvarez, Henderson NL 81 22 - 59 Kershaw, Clayton NL 152 94 - 58 Cain, Matt NL 103 46 - 57 Davis, Wade AL 77 22 - 55 Villanueva, Carlos NL 95 42 - 54 Greinke, Zack NL 117 64 - 53 Kendrick, Kyle NL 88 35 - 53 Morton, Charlie NL 109 57 - 52 Cole, Gerrit NL 127 75 - 52 Chen, Bruce AL 57 7 - 50 ------------------------------------------------------------- Norris, Bud AL 25 96 + 72 Kelly, Joe NL 12 79 + 67 De La Rosa, Jorge NL 16 71 + 56 Guthrie, Jeremy AL 17 62 + 45 Straily, Dan AL 37 80 + 42 Locke, Jeff NL 11 50 + 39 Gee, Dillon NL 62 100 + 38 Volquez, Edinson NL 32 69 + 37 Zito, Barry NL 2 38 + 36 Chen, Wei-Yin AL 53 83 + 30 Koehler, Tom NL 26 52 + 26 Saunders, Joe AL 31 56 + 25 Verlander, Justin AL 82 107 + 25 *min 40 IP none on/runners on
Finally, these guys had the widest home/road BPV splits in 2013:
-
Name League BPV Home BPV Road Diff ================== ====== ======== ======== ==== Nova, Ivan AL 117 35 - 82 Strasburg, Stephen NL 161 81 - 80 Hughes, Phil AL 107 34 - 72 Arroyo, Bronson NL 108 39 - 69 Greinke, Zack NL 128 60 - 68 Doubront, Felix AL 86 18 - 68 Moore, Matt AL 86 20 - 67 Bedard, Erik AL 75 11 - 64 Westbrook, Jake AL 28 -36 - 64 Harrell, Lucas AL 13 -50 - 63 Kazmir, Scott AL 145 83 - 62 Iwakuma, Hisashi AL 146 86 - 61 Nicasio, Juan NL 77 23 - 55 Minor, Mike NL 127 73 - 54 Teheran, Julio NL 131 77 - 54 Blanton, Joe AL 116 65 - 51 Miller, Shelby NL 118 68 - 50 ---------------------------------------------------- Hammel, Jason AL 6 75 + 69 Alvarez, Henderson NL 28 96 + 67 Mendoza, Luis AL -22 45 + 67 Verlander, Justin AL 62 127 + 65 Miley, Wade NL 38 92 + 54 Peralta, Wily NL 20 74 + 54 Cole, Gerrit NL 89 137 + 48 Eovaldi, Nathan NL 27 70 + 44 Wood, Travis NL 32 69 + 37 Chacin, Jhoulys NL 38 74 + 36 Keuchel, Dallas AL 65 101 + 35 Hernandez, Roberto AL 78 111 + 33 Colon, Bartolo AL 67 100 + 33 Diamond, Scott AL 9 39 + 30 Tepesch, Nick AL 72 101 + 29 Gee, Dillon NL 64 93 + 29 Cain, Matt NL 68 97 + 29 Lyles, Jordan NL 36 64 + 28 Pettitte, Andy AL 58 85 + 27 *min 40 IP home/road
With a focus on guys who should be available in even the deepest of leagues, here are a bunch of end-game SP worth targeting late in your drafts.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Trevor Bauer (RHP, CLE) (ADP 476) brought some mechanical tweaks to his delivery to spring training. So far, he remains a work-in-progress: 7 IP, 8/5 K/BB. His biggest obstacle continues to be a lack of command. He had a 106/73 K/BB in 121 IP at AAA Columbus, then couldn't find the plate with CLE. At age 23, he remains a high-upside pitcher worth owning, but don't do so without a bench.
Carlos Carrasco (RHP, CLE) (ADP 619) will be a forgotten man in most leagues. His prospect star has faded due to Tommy John surgery, and at age 27, even his post-hype luster is wearing off. That said, he has shown flashes of being an impact SP when healthy. For example, with CLE in 2010: 7.7 Dom, 2.8 Ctl, 57% GB%, 97 BPV. He reproduced those skills in a tiny sample with CLE late in 2013: 7.2 Dom, 2.5 Ctl, 51% GB%, 89 BPV. His four-seam fastball averaged 95 mph too. He has a 9/1 K/BB in 7 IP so far this spring. With a current ADP of 619, he's being drafted way later than he should be.
Rubby De La Rosa (RHP, BOS) (ADP 703) has experienced a long road back after TJ surgery in 2011. With a fastball that sits in the mid-90s, a strong change-up, and an ability to induce groundballs at a solid rate, he has the tools to make a splash. Just keep in mind that If he cannot find good command in a starting role, he's more likely to emerge in a late-inning role.
Samuel Deduno (RHP, MIN) (ADP 649) made some gains last year that are easy to dismiss. After all, his 1.6 Cmd in 2013 gives him very little margin for error. However, his SwK% jumped from a marginal 7% to a strong 9% between the 1H and 2H. And his near-60% GB% the last two seasons limits his blowup potential. He has an 8/4 K/BB in 9 IP so far this spring. At age 30, there's very little upside here, but he has some intrigue in the deepest of AL-only leagues.
Kevin Gausman (RHP, BAL) (ADP 333) won't be available as an end-gamer in prospect-savvy leagues, since he has one of the highest ceilings of any young SP in the AL. In a shallow league, that might not be the case. His skills with BAL in 2013 gave us a hint of his upside: 9.3 Dom, 2.5 Ctl, 42% GB%, 120 BPV. He features a mid-90s fastball and a dominant splitter, and he doesn't show any LH/RH skill splits. There is a lot of profit potential here.
Kyle Gibson (RHP, MIN) (ADP 641) is another SP whose prospect star has faded. He showed signs of getting his career back on track in 2013 after TJ surgery: 87/33 K/BB in 101 IP. He's now two full years removed from TJ surgery. He posted a 3.2 Cmd against RH bats with MIN in 2013. His problems came against lefties. He had an ugly 0.9 Cmd against them. His very early spring results don't suggest that he has found a solution for them. He has a 0/2 K/BB in 4.2 IP vs. LH bats. That said, he's still a guy to stash in deep AL-only leagues.
Phil Hughes (RHP, MIN) (ADP 394) will benefit from moving from HR-friendly Yankee Stadium to Target Field in 2014. With two consecutive seasons of near-3.0 Cmd under his belt, Hughes has a good shot at posting his first sub-4.00 ERA since 2009.
Drew Hutchison (RHP, TOR) (ADP 624) has been one of the most impressive SP so far this spring. He has a fantastic 16/1 K/BB in 9 IP as well as a 2:1 GB/FB ratio. Hutchison emerged as a solid prospect at age 20 in 2011 when he posted an outstanding 171/35 K/BB in 149 IP across three levels in the minors. Then he went under the knife for TJ surgery in late 2012 and rehabbed his elbow for most of 2013. The sore back of J.A. Happ (LHP, TOR) and his chronic wildness should present Hutchison with a rotation opportunity early in the season. He's worth a speculation in very deep leagues.
Scott Kazmir (LHP, OAK) (ADP 263) will be ignored until the end game in many drafts, since most owners will feel that his best days are clearly behind him. They might not realize that he was the game's best SP in September 2013: 28 IP, 13.8 Dom, 1.3 Ctl, 39% GB%, 231 BPV. That surge was the result of a dominant slider and change-up. His new home park could be a big boon to a pitcher who has had a significant flyball tilt for most of his career. As long as you don't bank on him being a 180-IP pitcher, Kazmir makes for a premium end-game target.
Dallas Keuchel (LHP, HOU) (ADP 635) quietly put together a noteworthy skill base behind his ugly 5.15 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 2013: 7.2 Dom, 3.0 Ctl, 56% GB%, 81 BPV, 3.72 xERA. His slider/cutter has become a dominating pitch for him. It helped him increase his SwK% from 6% in 2012 to 9% in 2013. With a current ADP of 635, you'll be able to get him for nothing. He's an attractive profit source in deep leagues.
Brian Matusz (LHP, BAL) (ADP 655) blossomed out of the BAL bullpen in 2013: 51 IP, 8.8 Dom, 2.8 Ctl, 39% GB%, 100 BPV. His stuff in relief generated an extremely high 13% SwK%, so his Dom spike was no fluke. While much of that success came against same-sided batters, his skills against RH bats weren't horrible (1.9 Cmd, 46% GB%). He still wants to be a starter, and at age 27, he's still too young to not get another opportunity in a more high-profile role.
Brandon Maurer (RHP, SEA) (ADP 637) quietly put up these extremely strong skills in the second half of 2013: 41 IP, 8.4 Dom, 2.2 Ctl, 47% GB%, 11% SwK%, 116 BPV. With a strong curveball and 93-mph fastball, Maurer has the tools to take a sustained step forward this season if he can keep LH bats from squaring up his fastball. With a tweak there and a healthy back, Maurer could make a splash in the SEA rotation in 2014.
Bud Norris (RHP, BAL) (ADP 452) will be viewed as a known commodity in many leagues, but he owns some nice skills in a few situations. He displayed this strong skill foundation against RH bats in 2013: 8.5 Dom, 2.8 Ctl, 43% GB%, 98 BPV. His command erodes against LH bats. He also seems to lose concentration when the bases are empty. He had a terrible 25 BPV with the bases empty, compared to a 96 BPV with runners on base and an elite 111 BPV with runners in scoring position. Norris is a guy who could end up being a better fit in a late-inning role, since his slider has been his only true swing-and-miss pitch during the last two seasons.
Felipe Paulino (RHP, CHW) (ADP 534) has gotten off to an ugly start so far this spring, at least on the surface (8 IP, 9.72 ERA, 2.28 WHIP). Beneath those marks is a strong 11/2 K/BB, which reminds us that Paulino posted an 8.0+ Dom in the four seasons prior to his arm injury. He has some solid end-game value in strikeout leagues, but you'll need a bench with him.
Brad Peacock (RHP, HOU) (ADP 472) showed signs of becoming an effective starter in the second half of 2013 with HOU: 8.9 Dom, 3.3 Ctl, 42% GB%, 92 BPV. And his skills really blossomed in September: 9.1 Dom, 2.2 Ctl, 40% GB%, 12% SwK%, 123 BPV. If he can sustain the control gains he flashed in the second half, you could earn some nice profit on Peacock and his current 472 ADP.
Drew Pomeranz (LHP, OAK) (ADP 648) was a top prospect in the CLE system a few years ago when he posted a 119/38 K/BB in 101 IP between High-A and Double-A. Between a rocky 2012 and ugly short-stint with COL in 2013, he did post these nice skills at Triple-A in 2013: 96/33 K/BB in 85 IP. Given the rash of injuries to hit the OAK rotation this spring, Pomeranz could get an early shot at making an impact with his new club. He's a good stash if you have a bench.
Erasmo Ramírez (RHP, SEA) (ADP 402) was a premium breakout target at this time last season before a triceps issue set him back. His skills with SEA in his MLB debut in 2012 featured excellent command and a ton of swinging strikes: 7.3 Dom, 1.8 Ctl, 40% GB%, 12% SwK%, 100 BPV. He has a 10/2 K/BB in his first 12 IP this spring. Even if he doesn't start the season in the SEA rotation, he's someone who should be stashed in every deep league.
Todd Redmond (RHP, TOR) (ADP 649) is one of several pitchers vying for a spot in the TOR rotation. While Redmond lacks the upside and pedigree of some of his competitors, he did flash these intriguing second-half skills with TOR in 2013: 9.2 Dom, 2.6 Ctl, 29% GB%, 102 BPV. RH batters had no chance against his slider. Redmond and his current ADP of 649 has some decent profit potential in deep leagues.
Esmil Rogers (RHP, TOR) (ADP 681) has an intriguing 12/4 K/BB in 9 IP over his first four spring games. While Rogers did not show overall skills (60 BPV) in 2013 that should reel you in, he did post these skills out of the TOR bullpen in 2012: 9.5 Dom, 3.4 Ctl, 47% GB%, 103 BPV. And he dominated RH bats in a mix of starting and relief roles in 2013: 7.0 Dom, 1.1 Ctl, 45% GB%, 119 BPV. With a mid-90s fastball, Rogers could end up as a darkhorse saves candidate given the significant health concerns of Casey Janssen (RHP, TOR) and Sergio Santos (RHP, TOR).
Anthony Swarzak (RHP, MIN) (ADP 698) is a long-reliever who could see his role expand in 2014, especially considering that he posted a 3.0+ Cmd in four separate months in 2013. RH bats had no chance against him: 7.3 Dom, 1.6 Ctl, 57% GB%, 123 BPV. With an ADP of 701, he is going undrafted in most leagues. Buy him for nothing and use him to fill out the last slot or two of your staff in deep leagues.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Henderson Alvarez (RHP, MIA) (ADP 430) flashed a mid-90s fastball and high groundball rate a couple of years ago. After battling some shoulder problems, he rediscovered those skills with MIA in August 2013: 6.7 Dom, 2.4 Ctl, 55% GB%, 91 BPV. His lack of more than one swing-and-miss pitch caps his short-term upside, but his heavy fastball makes him worthy of speculation in deep NL-only leagues.
Brett Anderson (LHP, COL) (ADP 403) will be forgotten about in most leagues given his injury history during the last three seasons. When healthy, Anderson has been able to sustain a 3.0+ Cmd and near-60% GB%, a combo that will mitigate the effects of his new home park. His 6.04 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 45 IP with OAK in 2013 was the result of a trifecta of trouble: 37% H%, 63% S%, 18% hr/f. If you can stomach his lack of durability, Anderson is a premium profit center heading into 2014.
Randall Delgado (RHP, ARI) (ADP 473) quietly posted a 70+ BPV in each month of 2013. Gopheritis (1.9 HR/9) held him back, in large part due to a 17% hr/f. Poor command of his sinker was the primary culprit. With three HR allowed in 11 IP so far this spring, it's a problem he hasn't solved yet. That said, his continued Cmd gains during the last three years (1.3, 1.8, 3.4) make him a good speculation in deep leagues.
Nathan Eovaldi (RHP, MIA) (ADP 367) featured the highest four-seam fastball velocity (96.1 mph) in MLB among SP with at least 40 IP. Digging deeper, he was very effective against RH bats: 7.0 Dom, 2.2 Ctl, 46% GB%, 91 BPV. His bugaboo has been lefty bats. It's too early to tell if he has found a solution for them this spring, but even modest gains there could help him turn his raw stuff into skills and results this season.
Brad Hand (LHP, MIA) (ADP 699) has been one of the most dominating SP in MLB over the first 2-1/2 weeks of spring training: 15/2 K/BB in 12 IP. He was a top-10 prospect in the MIA system earlier this decade due to his fantastic curveball. Poor control in the minors and during a few auditions with MIA has halted his development. This spring sample is far too small to suggest that he has made sustainable gains there, but it suggests that he should be on your radar again.
Taylor Jordan (RHP, WAS) (ADP 610) has been one of the most impressive SP in spring camps so far in March: 13/0 K/BB in 10 IP. He totally stymied RH bats with WAS in 2013: 7.5 Dom, 1.9 Ctl, 57% GB%, 119 BPV. His early results against LH bats are very encouraging: 5/0 K/BB in 3 IP. This after he couldn't strike out any LH batters in 2013 (2.0 Dom). With an extreme groundball tilt and more strikeout upside than it may seem, Jordan is an extremely attractive end-game target, especially considering how much he is being undervalued in the market.
Jordan Lyles (RHP, COL) (ADP 676) has posted a 5.00+ ERA and 1.40+ WHIP in all three of his MLB seasons, so he will be left undrafted in most leagues. Digging deeper, he quietly dominated RH bats in 2013: 7.5 Dom, 1.6 Ctl, 48% GB%, 118 BPV. A poor 1.1 Cmd against LH bats has held him back. At age 23, he's still young enough to experience significant growth. His 7/1 K/BB in 8 IP in his first three games this spring is a small sample of the type of command upside he possesses.
Jenrry Mejia (RHP, NYM) (ADP 413) has endured a long road back from TJ surgery in May 2011. He had surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow late in 2013, which puts into question if he will ever have the durability to stick as a starter. When healthy, he has a heavy, moving mid-90s fastball that induces both strikeouts and groundballs at a high rate. Mejia remains a good stash regardless of role if you have a bench.
Wily Peralta (RHP, MIL) (ADP 363) made some hidden gains in the second half of 2013: 7.7 Dom, 3.5 Ctl, 49% GB%, 69 BPV. With a mid-90s fastball and dominant slider, Peralta has the raw tools to become a dominant pitcher if he can make some gains against LH batters.
Yusmeiro Petit (RHP, SF) (ADP 440) dazzled with SF late in 2013: 8.8 Dom, 2.1 Ctl, 30% GB%, 111 BPV. While he can be very hittable at times and gives up a lot of flyballs, his curveball gives him a legit strikeout pitch, and he's shown good control repeatedly over his career. If Ryan Vogelsong (RHP, SF) continues to be ineffective, expect Petit to get another rotation shot early in 2014.
Tanner Roark (RHP, WAS) (ADP 366) was really effective in a stint with WAS in September 2013: 6.1 Dom, 1.2 Ctl, 51% GB%, 107 BPV. He was particularly dominant against RH bats: 7.6 Dom, 1.1 Ctl, 50% GB%. His ADP is 250 slots better than higher-upside teammate Taylor Jordan, so Roark might actually be overvalued as an end-game pick. But there remains some profit potential here.
Craig Stammen (RHP, WAS) (ADP 623) came really close to getting a look in the WAS rotation in mid-2013. His skills in a variety of relief roles give him a really unique profile: 8.7 Dom, 3.0 Ctl, 60% GB%, 114 BPV. He has posted a high 13%+ SwK% in consecutive seasons. He has two legit swing-and-miss pitches: slider (23% SwK%) and curveball (20% SwK%). And he posted a 2.5+ Cmd against both LH and RH batters. In a deep league, he remains a guy to stash on your staff regardless of his role.
Alex Torres (LHP, SD) (ADP 599) will start the season as a middle-reliever in the SD bullpen, similar to the role with TAM in 2013 that helped him produce these skills: 9.6 Dom, 3.1 Ctl, 42% GB%, 109 BPV. He has a really good change-up that could help him transition back to a starting role. His roadblock always has been poor control, but it's a problem that won't be as exposed in the NL West. Again, buy the skills, ignore the role.
Carlos Torres (RHP, NYM) (ADP 654) likely will not start the season in the NYM rotation, which could cause owners to forget about the excellent skills he posted in a swingman role with NYM in 2013: 7.8 Dom, 1.8 Ctl, 44% GB%, 115 BPV. The key for him is proving that his control gains were legit, as that is what held him back in the past. His early spring returns are encouraging (6 IP, 1 BB).
Jacob Turner (RHP, MIA) (ADP 494) can be labeled as a failed prospect at this point in his career, but there are reasons to keep him on your radar. He gained nearly one mph on his four-seam fastball in 2013. He missed a lot of bats in 2012. Nearly all of his problems come against LH bats. He had a near-2.0 Cmd against RH bats but an ugly 1.0 Cmd vs. lefties. At age 23, he remains a work-in-progress, but one worth stashing on your bench in a deep NL-only league.
There’s more where this came from. Click here to purchase a Draft Prep subscription plan, which gives you complete access to BaseballHQ.com's insights through April 30, 2014.
More From Starting Pitchers
Brandon Pfaadt's huge underlying gains in 2024 make him a premium breakout target heading into 2025.
Sep 7 2024 3:09am
Sep 7 2024 3:09am
Emerging rookie Spencer Schwellenbach was the game's most skilled starting pitcher during August behind a combination of groundballs and whiffs.
Aug 31 2024 3:09am
Aug 31 2024 3:09am
Brayan Bello's crumbling command against lefty bats is preventing him from taking a sustained step forward.
Aug 24 2024 3:09am
Aug 24 2024 3:09am
The recent struggles of Cristopher Sánchez can be traced back to his road starts, where both his stats and skills go from great to bad.
Aug 17 2024 3:09am
Aug 17 2024 3:09am
Brayan Bello's concurrent improvement in swinging strikes and ball percentage in the second half suggests he could deliver improved results down the stretch.
Aug 10 2024 3:09am
Aug 10 2024 3:09am
