STARTERS: Expected Ctl, Dom surgers and faders 2017

Comparing strikeout and walk levels with command sub-indicators like swinging strike rate and ball percentage can be an effective way to forecast changes in a SP's command.

Our 2013 research on swinging strike rates (SwK%) showed that SwK% has a strong link with dominance rate (K/9). As such, we can use it to calculate a SP's expected Dom:

  • xDom Ranges by SwK% Level
    
                ------xDom by Percentile----
    SwK% Range  10th  25th  50th  75th  90th
    ==========  ====  ====  ====  ====  ====
    12.0%       8.7   9.1   9.6  10.2  10.6
    11.5-11.9%   8.2   8.5   9.4   9.9  10.2
    11.0-11.4%   6.5   7.3   8.2   9.2   9.5
    10.5-10.9%   7.2   7.7   8.0   8.6   9.0
    10.0-10.4%   6.8   7.1   8.3   8.9   9.0
    9.5-9.9%     6.6   7.4   7.6   8.2  ...

Almost!

You’re just a few clicks away from accessing this feature and hundreds more throughout the year that have a singular goal in mind: Winning your league. Subscribe to BaseballHQ.com here!

Already a subscriber? Sign in here

More From Starting Pitchers

The improved velocity and history of pinpoint control shown by Zebby Matthews makes him an ideal early stash in deep leagues.
May 10 2025 3:07am
Joe Ryan's rotation-anchor stats in April were backed by an elite collection of skills.
May 3 2025 3:06am
Hunter Greene's excellent start to the season has come with full support from his command building blocks.
Apr 26 2025 3:09am
Merrill Kelly's rough early results are driven by a shaky skill base that's not showing any signs of life.
Apr 19 2025 3:07am
Justin Verlander's poor early stats seemingly validate his worrisome 2025 outlook, but his electric command sub-indicators point to a buying opportunity.
Apr 12 2025 3:07am

Tools