STARTERS: Expected Ctl, WHIP surgers and faders
Jan 7 2016
Our 2015 research on the ball and strike rates of starting pitchers found that there is a strong correlation between a SP's ball% and the number of walks he allows. As walks go up or down, so does WHIP—so ball% also has a strong link to that category.
In fact, ball% provides the closest link to a pitcher's Ctl out of all indicators studied in that research.
We also were able to draw the following conclusions:
- SP have an average ball% of 36%
- SP with wide variances between Ctl and xCtl will overwhelmingly experience a correction in the direction of xCtl—as calculated by using ball%—during the following season
- Ball% more often regresses to a SP’s career norm than it regresses to an MLB norm
Expected control rate (xCtl) can be calculated...
Almost!
You’re just a few clicks away from accessing this feature and hundreds more throughout the year that have a singular goal in mind: Winning your league. Subscribe to BaseballHQ.com here!
Already a subscriber? Sign in here
More From Starting Pitchers
Merrill Kelly's rough early results are driven by a shaky skill base that's not showing any signs of life.
Apr 19 2025 3:07am
Apr 19 2025 3:07am
Justin Verlander's poor early stats seemingly validate his worrisome 2025 outlook, but his electric command sub-indicators point to a buying opportunity.
Apr 12 2025 3:07am
Apr 12 2025 3:07am
Logan Gilbert has been the game's best starter over the season's first week, and it has not been close.
Apr 5 2025 3:30am
Apr 5 2025 3:30am
David Festa's intriguing second half skills last season and big spring this year make him an ideal sixth starter stash.
Mar 29 2025 3:09am
Mar 29 2025 3:09am
Gavin Williams is compiling the ingredients for a growth season in 2025 with a strong performance this spring.
Mar 21 2025 3:10am
Mar 21 2025 3:10am
