STARTERS: Gambles

Most starting pitchers can be considered gambles in one form or another. Some are gambles worth taking. Others should be avoided.

Here, we will discuss gambles to avoid and define them as SP who are likely to be significantly overvalued on draft day.

We'll take a look at several indicators to explain why they may be easy to overvalue.

Please reference our Pitching Toolbox for explanations on these indicators. We have included excerpts below where applicable.

***

  • Strand Rate

Pitchers with very high strand rates almost always have exemplary ERAs. Most will see their ERAs rise the following year.

S%  77% - 2011

Name                 League  S%
===================  ======  ===
Bass, Anthony            NL  90%
Johnson, Josh...

Almost!

You’re just a few clicks away from accessing this feature and hundreds more throughout the year that have a singular goal in mind: Winning your league. Subscribe to BaseballHQ.com here!

Already a subscriber? Sign in here

More From Starting Pitchers

Jesús Luzardo's ugly early stats are hiding a collection of pristine skills.
Apr 11 2026 3:09am
Cam Schlittler's dominating start to the 2026 season has come with full backing from his underlying skills.
Apr 4 2026 3:09am
The huge spring of young Didier Fuentes has him on the cusp of the ATL rotation.
Mar 28 2026 3:09am
Cam Schlittler has built upon his late-season emergence with an excellent showing this spring.
Mar 20 2026 3:12am
The tweaked pitch mix of Matthew Liberatore has helped to fuel his electric spring.
Mar 20 2026 3:11am

Tools