We all "know" that hitters do better in warm weather and pitchers do better in cold weather. But is this really true? Can this be demonstrated by examining how stats vary over the course of a season? And if it is true, what are the implications for managing our fantasy rosters?

Each year some players have hot starts, and during the first few weeks of free agent bidding/waiver pickups we have to make decisions about how aggressively to chase these players. At Baseball HQ we consistently counsel owners to have patience and not make decisions on small sample sizes. This article focuses on potential free agents who had a "hot start" in one of the 5x5 offensive categories during the 2009-2011 seasons, and examines the results of investments in those free agents.

Teams that win fantasy titles often have players on their rosters that deliver more value than either their draft round or their auction price would predict. Often these are players who have breakouts in one or more scoring categories that weren't anticipated. Three players who exceeded expectations in SBs last year were Emilio Bonafacio (SS, MIA), Jason Bourgeois (OF, HOU), and Ben Revere (OF, MIN). We can target players in drafts who have a possibility of returning significant profit in the SB category by developing a profile of players who have had a SB breakout in the past.

Many fantasy owners target elite performers in scarce statistics like SBs. If you can draft one or two top base stealers, you can focus on the other categories as you draft your remaining hitters. In 2011, eight of the top ten base stealers in the AL had appeared in the top ten at least one time before, and six of the top ten in the NL had a previous top ten performance. Can we increase our chances of drafting one of these elite stolen base performers ?

What affect does an extreme H%, and its subsequent regression, have on scoring stats? Our first hypothesis is that a H% greater than 34% might result in a higher Dom rate. Pitchers with an inflated H% face more batters than they "normally" would, since batters are reaching base that otherwise might be retired. Therefore, pitchers have more opportunities to strike out hitters, leading to an inflated Dom -- which would return to a lower level upon H% regression.

Are players worth targeting after posting a 10-game hitting streak?

First, do players get "hot" (defined by a hitting streak) more often than we would expect by chance? And second, do players who have hitting streaks of at least 10 games, show improved performance over the next 10 games? If so, we should target these players.