RESEARCH: Can we still forecast saves?

The 2012 season was memorable for closers and their owners. Not so much for their successes but for performance meltdowns and season-ending injuries that threw the category into disarray in many leagues.

Start with the injuries. Six of the top 10 projected saves leaders (35 saves or more) suffered injuries that cost them all or part of the season: Mariano Rivera (RHP, NYY), Drew Storen (RHP, WAS), Brian Wilson (RHP, FAN), Joakim Soria (RHP, TEX)  Ryan Madson (RHP, LAA), and Sergio Santos (RHP, TOR). When the last ER had closed and the last suture healed, these six closers combined for a total of 10 saves in 2012.

Then there were the collapses. “Sure things” like Heath Bell (RHP, ARI), Jordan Walden (RHP, ATL) and Brandon League...

Almost!

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