A Risk Analysis of the 2026 Talent Pool
Jan 28 2026
In a perfect world, players would always produce statistics at their optimal skill level, and we wouldn’t have to worry about risk. We could lock in a set of numbers that represents their expected output and easily rank them. In that world, Jacob deGrom and Byron Buxton (pictured) are arguably first round, $35-$40 players.
But we live in an imperfect world where players get hurt, lose roles, and sometimes our skills metrics are wrong. Yet, our statistical player projections must settle on a single set of numbers. So, how do you account for risk?
The default method is to subtract a number of plate appearances, innings, or output stats to provide a rough estimate of the risk's impact. We might view these adjustments as...
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