NL East: Shifting sands

Atlanta Braves

Harrods, perhaps the world’s most famous department store, is enormous. The venerable London shop has several grand entrances, including one featuring the Egyptian Escalator, an opulent multi-story design scheme adorned with pharaonic iconography throughout. Among the gilded sigils and stern depictions, there’s a design element that really stands out: the image of a ruler overlooking ascendant shoppers, with a portion of Percy Bysshe Shelley’s poem, “Ozymandias” inscribed on the wall:

My name is Ozymandias, king of kings.
Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!

The place is supposed to evoke the idea of luxury, power, and the timelessness of this temple to material success and abundance. But the inclusion of Shelly’s lines injects an intriguing counterpoint, referencing the ultimate demise of the millennia-long rule of Egypt’s dynasties, and introducing the ironic (especially for a fancy store!) and humbling thought that ruin can come to even the wealthiest potentates. No matter how historic, all good runs eventually come to an end.

The Atlanta Braves have been MLB’s equivalent of the Egyptian dynasties over the past three decades. No team has won their division more times (18) since the six-division alignment began in 1994. Yet, as of this writing, the preseason favorites find themselves dead last in the NL East, contending with several serious issues. Is one bad month enough to bury them under the sands of time? Unlikely—and certainly not if their catchers have anything to say about it.

Since the Braves activated him from the IL on April 6 for a cracked rib suffered during spring training, Sean Murphy has been racking up more barrels than the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The once and present starting C trumpeted his return with a 1 HR, 4 RBI performance and immediately regained everyday player status. For the season, Murphy has slashed .200/.333/.543 with 5 R, 4 HR, 8 RBI in 42 PA, paying immediate dividends to fantasy managers who picked him up at a discount in March drafts.

His hot start has been a reason to rejoice for some but an albatross to others, as a healthy Murphy has displaced phenom Drake Baldwin, nudging the 24-year-old off his intriguing trajectory as he tries to establish himself as a major leaguer. Baldwin got off to an ice-cold start during Murphy’s absence, slashing a mere .154/.241/.192 with 0 HR in 29 PA. However, his xPX (168, 97) and HctX (151, 111), and h% (12%, 23%) during each of those first two weeks suggested that his skills were being trumped by a healthy dose of bad luck. Since becoming the second banana in the ATL catching corps, Baldwin has recorded 5 H in 13 PA, including 1 double and 1 HR, while averaging an EV of 103.4 mph. Overall, his 142 HctX and 151 xPX in 42 PA, paired with decent 9% BB% and passable 73% ct%, indicate the rookie is far from overmatched.

Manager Brian Snitker has been noncommittal about keeping Drake on the roster as the team’s backup catcher. After all, the Braves’s #1 prospect might be better served by playing every day at Triple-A rather than getting irregular reps with the big club. But with the team struggling for offense, perhaps they keep him around a bit longer to spell Murphy, come off the bench for pinch hits, and make the occasional start at DH.

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Philadelphia Phillies

Bryson Stott has been firmly entrenched as the Phillies’ starting 2B for a few years now. The 27-year-old has paired low-teens home run totals with 30+ steals in each of the last two seasons, and he’s off to a solid start in 2025: .294/.364/.426 with 10 R, 1 HR, 10 RBI, 3 SB in 77 PA. Over the past nine games, Stott has become a fixture at the top of the lineup, as manager Rob Thomson has elected to drop slugger Kyle Schwarber down to cleanup in order to reap more RBI opportunities. Who’s backing up Stott?

Edmundo Sosa is the only other player on the roster to draw any starts (3) at second so far in 2025. The superutility player has gotten off to a scorching start at the plate, slashing .414/.438/.552 with 4 R, 0 HR, 8 RBI in 32 PA. A quick glance at his 60% h% tells us most of what we need to know about his chances of keeping this heater going, as do his 6% BB%, 68% ct%, and 100 xPX. That reality check isn’t meant to denigrate Sosa in the slightest—he’s a capable backup who managed to tally 7 HR and 7 SB along with a 109 HctX and 166 RSpd in 273 PA in 2024.

Kody Clemens logged 8 G at 2B in 2024 and has made one appearance at the position in 2025. Despite making the team out of spring training, the 28-year-old has received only 6 PA in nearly a month of play—an indication of just how consistently Thomson has written his starters’ names into the lineup to start the season. Clemens’ 130 xPX over 120 PA in 2024 carry a whiff of intrigue were he to get more playing time.

 

New York Mets

The division-leading Mets are riding high, and despite several key injuries to their starting rotation, their SPs are currently tops in MLB in ERA (2.47), FIP (2.83), second in GB% (50.5%), and 3^rd in K/9 (9.88). The fact that they’ve achieved this roaring start without the services of either Sean Manaea (oblique) or Frankie Montas (high-grade lat strain) is especially impressive. 

Manager Carlos Mendoza recently shared an update on Montas’ recovery, relating that the 32-year-old righty was throwing from 75 feet and going through a normal progression. Montas is still at least a month away from rejoining the club, with early-to-mid June a more likely timeframe for his Mets debut.

Manaea was shut down after a setback in his recovery on April 1, although he resumed light throwing about a week ago. The Mets figure to be extra careful with their best pitcher from 2024, especially after he experienced a bump in the road, so mid-June is probably the earliest we’ll see him suit up in Queens.

Meanwhile, the team has recently confirmed their intention to use a six-man rotation—something they were able to work around for the first few weeks thanks to off days. This is to accommodate Kodai Senga, who is believed to benefit from maintaining the pitching schedule he was used to during his playing career in Japan. Justin Hagenman was called up and used as the bulk reliever behind opener Huascar Brazobán on April 16. The 28-year-old righty’s MLB debut went swimmingly: 3.1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K. Hagenman has a history of solid strikeout rates in Triple-A (9.46 K/9) but has been susceptible to homers (1.80 HR/9).

Mets fans and fantasy managers—especially of the dynasty variety—are anxious to see what top prospect Brandon Sproat can do in the majors. The 24-year-old fireballer is still finding his sea legs in Syracuse (18.8% K%, 12.5% BB% in 16.1 IP). Fortunately, teammates Dom Hamel (25% K-BB%) and Blade Tidwell (12.5% K-BB%) have gotten off to solid starts at Triple-A, giving the Mets still more options to call upon.

 

Miami Marlins

“And the sea will grant each man new hope, as sleep brings dreams of home.” (Captain Marko Ramius, The Hunt for Red October)

The Hunt for Red October is an all-time banger by director John McTiernan, featuring Sean Connery, Alec Baldwin, and a script based on the Tom Clancy novel by the same name. After triumphantly averting nuclear war and safely delivering this balance-of-power-altering nuclear submarine to the US, Soviet captain Ramius utters this memorable line, attributed to Christopher Columbus in the film, to close out the movie as he contemplates a new life full of possibilities. The thing is, McTiernan later admitted the quote was actually concocted by him and screenwriter Larry Ferguson. In the movies, you can write your own history when you need to inspire.

The 2025 Marlins continue to defy historically low expectations by hanging tough in 3^rd place in the NL East (okay, at 8-12 they’re tied for 3^rd and just one game ahead of the Braves in last, but give them a break, will ya?). As we’ve mentioned before, the lack of stars on this team will create constant opportunities for young players to make their mark. Today, we turn our attention to an outfielder making waves in Triple-A.

Jakob Marsee was one of the players that came over in the Luis Arraez trade. BHQ’s prospect guru Chris Blessing rated him the Marlin’s 12^th best prospect in his 2025 MIA Org Report, noting Marsee’s walk rate, speed, and defensive ability in CF in giving him an upside rating of 7C—that is, a potential average regular with about a 50% chance of reaching his potential.

The 23-year-old has gotten off to a solid start with AAA-Jacksonville, slashing .230/.405/.393 with 10 R, 2 HR, 5 RBI and 14 SB in 81 PA, good for a 133 wRC+. Marsee has exhibited excellent plate discipline (18.5% BB%, 19.8% K%), and while the average leaves something to be desired, he’s also dealt with a low .279 BABIP. Perhaps we should temper our expectations further given his 85.1 mph average EV, but given his speed and stolen base success, you should keep Marsee on your radar, especially if you’re digging yourself a hole in SB.

 

Washington Nationals

Luis García Jr. came into the season with some fairly high expectations pinned on him by the 2025 Baseball Forecaster, which proposed an “UP: .300, 25 HR, 25 SB” for the 24-year-old second baseman. He’s off to a sluggish start, slashing only .206/.271/.302 with 10 R, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 3 SB in 70 PA. To be clear, García Jr. is in no danger of losing his starting job anytime soon, as he has earned enough rope to work his way out of any early season troubles. But who’s backing him up?

Amed Rosario has started the only three games at 2B that the lefty-hitting García Jr. has not, and those were all against LH SP. In previous seasons, manager Dave Martinez has elected to sit García Jr. versus many left-handed starters, and he’s continued sparing him in the early going (starting 50% vs LHP). Rosario himself is off to a respectable start (.270/.289/.405, 7 R, 1 HR, 2 RB, 1 SB), and he could certainly be counted on to fill in case of injury, but besides his wheels and contact ability (career 79% ct%), he offers limited upside.

José Tena played 8 games at second in 2024 and could play there again if needed, although he’s been filling in at 3B since Paul DeJong went on the IL because of a fractured nose. There’s a hint of unrealized power in his profile (115 xPX over 168 PA in 2024) to go along with decent speed (100 RSpd, 6 SB/1 CS).

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