(*) PT TOMORROW: AL East—A few arms to speculate on
Mar 22 2015
One story to emerge in Orioles camp in the latter part of the spring has been the performance of one-time top prospect Brian Matusz (LHP, BAL) in a starting role.
On March 20, Matusz allowed two hits and struck out two in four scoreless innings, bringing his spring total to 1 ER in 10.1 IP.
The Orioles have been coy as to whether Matusz is being showcased for a possible trade or merely being stretched out to serve as a long reliever and possible rotation option later in the season. As has been discussed here, Baltimore’s rotation already has one extra arm, with Ubaldo Jiménez (RHP, BAL) perhaps having shown enough of late (1 BB in 8 IP over last two starts) to stave off Miguel González (RHP, BAL) for the final spot. Gonzalez has pitched better this spring (4 ER in 9 IP, 7/0 K/BB), but Jimenez has the large contract, while Gonzalez has the remaining minor-league option.
As for Matusz, “buy skills, not roles” has long been a BaseballHQ.com mantra, and Matusz did flash some intriguing skills in last year’s second half. With the caveat that it was only 22 IP, Matusz posted a 1.23 ERA, which was aided by an 88% strand rate but otherwise largely validated (2.87 xERA, 11.9 Dom, 7.3 Cmd, 174 BPV). Perhaps most encouraging for a possible future expanded role: Matusz hinted at having figured out how to get out righties (.402 oOPS), who have historically vexed him. The small-sample caveat still applies, of course.
The bottom line? You could do worse with your last $1 or a reserve-round pick than take a flier on Matusz.
As with the battle between Jimenez and Gonzalez, remaining minor-league options may help determine the winner of a reserve-infield spot between Jimmy Paredes (3B, BAL) and Everth Cabrera (SS, BAL). In this case, Paredes is out of options; Cabrera is not.
Paredes is on his way to winning the job on merit as well, with 13 hits in his first 29 AB and 10 RBI, tying him with Chris Davis (1B, BAL) for tops on the team this spring. Paredes has also drawn raves from Showalter about his improved defense.
While some interpreted the signing of Cabrera as potential bad news for Jonathan Schoop (2B, BAL), it is becoming more apparent that the 2013 NL All-Star will serve as a utility player. Starting the season in the minors would allow Cabrera to hone his defense at a variety of positions, given that he has appeared in just a handful of games off shortstop in his major-league career. While Schoop’s job security could certainly suffer if he fails to improve his approach at the plate (0.11 Eye, 73% ct%, .228 xBA), he appears safe to start the season.
It is beginning to look like Rusney Castillo (OF, BOS), once believed to be the leading candidate to be Boston’s starting center fielder when the season opened, will start the season at AAA-Pawtucket.
While Castillo has recovered from his left strained oblique, as evidenced by his three-run HR in his first-ever Grapefruit League at-bat March 20, his limited spring work provides a convenient excuse for sending the $72.5-million Cuban import to the minors to get regular reps while the Red Sox open play with Mookie Betts (OF, BOS) in center and Shane Victorino (OF, BOS) in right.
The move would be less an indictment of Castillo than an endorsement of Betts, who has been undeniable in his quest for a starting role. Half of Betts’ 14 hits in 32 ABs through Friday had gone for extra bases (5 2B, 2 3B), putting him on track to be the Red Sox leadoff hitter when the season opens.
Victorino has only two hits in his first 16 spring at-bats but is apparently healthy, which was the only prerequisite manager John Farrell put on the veteran winning the starting RF job to begin the season. There are plenty of reasons to question whether Victorino can maintain that role, however, health being the main one.
Victorino has also decided to resume switch-hitting, despite slashing .300/.386/.510 in 100 right-on-right ABs in 2013, which surpassed his rate as a LHB the previous several seasons. In his injury-shortened 2014, he did regress to a more pedestrian .241/.289/.361 as a RHB vs. RHP in 83 AB. In the early going, it would not be a surprise to see Victorino to yield some playing time against RHP to switch-hitter Daniel Nava (OF, BOS), who has historically fared better as a LHB (.813 OPS) than as a RHB (.585 OPS).
In addition to being an extreme injury risk, Victorino may also be dealt in the final year of his three-year, $39-million contract. If he somehow remained on the Red Sox active roster all season, Castillo may have to bide his time until 2016. The smart money, however, is on an opportunity opening up for Castillo before that, perhaps even from Castillo kicking down the door, Betts-style.
The Sox also have a burgeoning issue at the back end of their rotation, given the biceps tightness Joe Kelly (RHP, BOS) developed in his March 16 start. Kelly did not believe the issue was serious, however, and he was on tap to pitch March 22. Kelly may only need to show he is healthy to retain his role. However, ideally, he would get better results than his first 7.1 spring innings as well (9 ER, 17 H).
While young left-handers Henry Owens (LHP, BOS), Brian Johnson (LHP, BOS) and Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP, BOS) may be eventual options, 30-year-old knuckleballer Steven Wright (RHP, BOS) will reportedly open the season as the team’s “sixth starter.” Wright posted a 3.41 ERA with a 68/22 K/BB over 15 starts (95 IP) with AAA-Pawtucket last season. After being cuffed around in his first 13 MLB innings in 2013, Wright more than held his own in 21 IP last season (6 ER, 22/4 K/BB), though most of those innings came in meaningless September games against expanded rosters. Still, especially if he can be tucked away on a reserve list, Wright might not be a bad speculative pick in a deep AL-only league.
Early last week, local press reports suggested that Esmil Rogers (RHP, NYY) perhaps had surged to the fore of the Yankees’ fifth-starter competition. However, after Rogers held the Blue Jays scoreless over 3 IP March 14 in a start in which he was able to dodge trouble despite reportedly being hit hard, his luck ran out March 19 against the Phillies (3.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 H), leaving his overall numbers (3 ER in 9.1 IP with a 9/1 K/BB) comparable to those of Adam Warren (RHP, NYY), who has given up 4 ER in 13 IP (6/0 K/BB).
A new dark horse in the race may be Chase Whitley (RHP, NYY), who has yet to yield a run in 10 spring innings, albeit with a pedestrian 4/3 K/BB. As noted in the Baseball Forecaster, Whitley’s potential is masked by a “crazy” hit rate (35%) and hr/f (24%) in the second half of 2014. Not unlike Matusz, Whitley may be a decent stash-and-hope play for AL-only leagues.
Bryan Mitchell (RHP, NYY) is also reportedly in the running for the fifth-starter role; however, his spring work thus far has been less impressive (4 ER in 4 IP).
While manager Joe Girardi has bent over backwards to stress that the abdominal strain of Jacoby Ellsbury (OF, NYY) is “mild” and should not affect his Opening Day availability, it does serve as a reminder about Ellsbury’s hard-earned “D” health grade.
It also should perhaps serve to emphasize the defensive versatility of Jose Pirela (2B, NYY), who has logged some time in left and center in Ellsbury’s absence, while also appearing at 2B and 3B this spring. Pirela is 10-for-27 with five extra-base hits in Grapefruit League play. Assuming he secures a roster spot (though now in question due to Sunday's injury), Pirela may be able to cobble together enough at-bats to become fantasy relevant, particularly if he continues to hit.
While the injuries of Drew Smyly (LHP, TAM) and Alex Cobb (RHP, TAM) are not expected to have long-term implications, the Rays’ rotation will be in a bit of disarray to start the season, it appears.
Playing Time Today analyst Matt Dodge has identified the leading candidates to start the year rounding out the Rays’ rotation—Nathan Karns (RHP, TAM), Burch Smith (RHP, TAM) and Matt Andriese (RHP, TAM)—even with Smith being reassigned temporarily to AAA-Durham to get in additional work.
The demotion of Enny Romero (LHP, TAM), however, reportedly has taken him out of the running for a fill-in starter gig. Still being considered, according to local press reports are Everett Teaford (LHP, TAM), who has yielded only 1 ER over his first 6.2 spring innings, and Mike Montgomery (LHP, TAM), 1 ER in 6.1 IP, who had been ticketed for bullpen duty before the injuries threw a wrench in the team’s plans. Nothing in the 31-year-old Teaford’s history screams (or even whispers) “potential.” Montgomery has youth and a prospect pedigree, but his recent results at AAA-Durham have been mediocre. There are better flyers to be found (even within this very column).
As has been suspected all along, it is beginning to look more and more like Asdrúbal Cabrera (SS, TAM) will open the season as the Rays’ starting shortstop. The latest clue is the manager Kevin Cash has indicated that he has not seen in Cabrera the lost range, which some had suggested might force a permanent move to 2B, where Cabrera appeared in 48 games last season.
Nick Franklin (2B, TAM) still looks like the odds-on favorite to open the year as Cabrera’s double-play partner, despite not setting the world on fire this spring (8-for-30, 1 2B). His 12 Ks in 30 spring AB is on par with his 60% contact rate from his 81 MLB at-bats in 2014, suggesting that he is still far from a finished product.
Alternatives Tim Beckham (SS, TAM) (4-for-27) and Jake Elmore (SS, TAM) (1-for-19) are doing little to suggest they will be viable fantasy commodities, even if they do manage to unseat Franklin. Performing a bit better has been Alexi Casilla (2B, TAM) (6-for-21, 2 2B, 3B), who may at least offer a few SB if he shakes out as the team’s best option to start the season.
Injuries may help provide some finality to a couple of spring playing-time battles that may have already been tipping in the younger, healthier player’s favor.
At second base, Maicer Izturis (2B, TOR), he of the “F” health grade, has suffered right groin strain. While no immediate timetable is available, Izturis’ Opening Day availability is at least in doubt, which opens the door for Devon Travis (2B, TOR). This spring, Travis has been the superior hitter (11-for-32, versus 2-for-16 for Izturis), though he has been caught on both of his stolen-base attempts. Travis would be making the leap directly from Double-A, so some struggles should perhaps be expected. But, as noted by BaseballHQ.com minor-league analyst Jeremy Deloney, Travis does have double-digit potential in both HR and SB, while his contact skills should provide a decent BA floor.
Meanwhile, Dalton Pompey (OF, TOR) had been the odds-on favorite to win the team’s center-field job and has done nothing to harm his frontrunner status (10-for-33, 2 2B, 3B, 2 SB).
Pompey’s cause is now being helped by the Grade 1 oblique strain suffered by Kevin Pillar (OF, TOR), which will reportedly sideline him for a week. Unlike Izturis, Pillar had been performing fairly well (7-for-26, HR, 2 2B) and still may be able to scrounge some early season at-bats if he can beat Michael Saunders (OF, TOR) back to the field. But expect to see Pompey in center field on Opening Day.
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