RESEARCH: The bounceback fallacy
Feb 28 2015
A common trope found at fantasy baseball sites and in fantasy baseball expert commentary is the idea that we should target the kind of quality starting pitcher who had bad results last season.
The idea is that a good pitcher is highly likely to “bounce back” with a premium campaign, recovering at least some of value lost in the disaster season and maybe even recover all the way back to past levels. And the canny drafter or auction bidder can grab a really high-potential pitcher at a price that is discounted because of the recency bias associated with the immediate bad season.
We at BaseballHQ.com like to challenge “common knowledge” like this, with an eye towards giving you an edge in being able to exploit instances where that common...
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