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RESEARCH: Busting the prospect myth, part 3
Oct 25 2012
He couldn’t miss.
Justin Upton was the first overall draft pick of the 2005 MLB draft, and the #2 player on the 2006 Baseball America top-prospects list.
Upton made it to MLB in 2007, called up in early August. By many leagues’ rules, he had to be activated then, because he wasn’t a September callup. He reached 130 AB on Sept. 22, triggering an activation requirement in a bunch more leagues.
Owners who chose to activate Upton, or had to, got a 2007 season with a BaseballHQ.com 5x5 value of -$2. His next year, he delivered $5 in value.
Owners in leagues where owners must sign or “play out” a player going into his third season now faced a tough decision: Whether to gamble on Upton breaking out or to hold him for a final year at...
Almost!
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